A shrewd bookmaker blew the whistle on a bizarre betting plunge, writes Chris Barrett.
The attention of the nation was anywhere but on Dairy Farmers Stadium on the night of Saturday, August 21 last year, and the hours leading up to it. It was on the federal election - coincidentally (or not, perhaps, in retrospect) held on the same day - and a thoroughly more vital contest than that between two of the season's NRL also-rans, North Queensland and Canterbury.
Yet while just about all eyes focused squarely on Julia Gillard, Tony Abbott and the extra-time tallying that would eventually confirm the former as Prime Minister, something was brewing that would make the day a notorious one for rugby league, too.
The first signs came on the day before, the Friday morning, and as one would expect the first to twig that all was not as it should be were the betting agencies. Cash was beginning to be lodged for the Cowboys - the outsiders and by some margin the worst team in the NRL last year - but not simply to win. Instead, the wagers were on the hosts - like the Bulldogs, no chance of making the semi-finals - to score first with a penalty goal.
''On the Friday morning, a guy who worked for another bookie had a bet on it with us,'' says Gerard Daffy, the experienced bookmaker who now runs sportsalive.com. ''I think he had $100 or $150 on at double-figure odds so I made it shorter. I thought, 'We'll keep out of this.'''
By the following morning, the day of the game, he was surprised to see the drop in odds had not exactly proved prohibitive. And on the most wildly unusual of betting categories.
''We then had it at $6 and, lo and behold, a new account in a female's name submitted a $1000 bet at $6,'' Daffy says. ''The gambler in me says you should be taking something like that because it's grossly under the odds but I'm always wary of things like that. In gambling if something doesn't look right, it normally isn't.''
Daffy, perplexed by the unusual direction of the punting, resolved to check it out. He had used the firm's interceptor software, which agencies use to examine any bet of their choosing before accepting it, and decided to contact other bookmakers to see if there had been a similar trend.
What he found, of course, confirmed his suspicions. Most of his opponents had closed that specific market after witnessing similar activity. Daffy quickly did the same, allowing that new punter a $100 wager, rather than $1000. In the hours later the league cognoscenti, not unaccustomed to a rumour or two, would be rife with text-message talk that ''the fix was in''.
Five hours before kick-off, Scott Woodward, a league analyst who had been keeping a close watch on NRL prices, caught on. He sent a text to the former NSW prop Peter Tunks, who was on air at the radio station 2SM. Woodward's message said: ''This looks a hot game.''
Others were of the same opinion. ''For a game like that it was more than unusual,'' says Glenn Munsie of TAB Sportsbet. ''[The Cowboys] were the outsider in the game … they'd kicked a penalty goal once all year as a first scoring play.''
Over at Centrebet, analysts first spied that something was up on the Friday night. It was then that the first of moves by three Sydney punters, as well as other minor ones, would begin with them.
''The initial bet, which raised a bit of an eyebrow, was $1000 at $9. That was made at around at 5.30 on Friday night, the day before the game,'' says Centrebet's Neil Evans.
''I could tell from the way the book was treated from there that it was a twig … It was a 'bet of interest'.''
Centrebet, unlike Daffy and some the others, did not immediately turn the market off. But the realisation that a plunge was on was made very apparent to them as the 7.30pm kick-off in Townsville approached.
''Another Sydney-based punter had $1000 on at $7.50. This bet was placed exactly 24 hours later, two hours from the kick-off of the match. At this stage there had been other bets made - $200, $300, $500 as well. Then there was a third-Sydney based punter who got involved.
''He had several bets up to $500 from $7.50 down to $5. That came at around the same time on Saturday afternoon - right in the middle of the federal election. By this stage you're thinking, 'Something is doing here.'''
In that 24-hour period, the Cowboys first scorer with a penalty goal option fluctuated from $11 to $3 with Centrebet. The agency would have stood to lose about $20,000 had the Cowboys not, of course, declined an early shot at a two-pointer and instead scored a try in the left corner. Overall, across the agencies, punters stood to win almost $250,000 if the play eventuated.
''Ninety-five per cent of the money for the first scoring play was on a Cowboys penalty goal,'' Evans said. ''The Bulldogs were $1.59 favourites [to win the game] yet you barely had $100 from the betting community on a Bulldogs first try.''
At some point on that Saturday afternoon, the NRL was notified of the betting trends and the subsequently closed markets. Those privy to that information at the time ignored the election coverage and sat glued to their televisions, despite the match being a meaningless one in terms of the coming NRL play-offs.
''We got advised that the market had been closed on the weekend … clearly [we] watched the match with interest,'' NRL official John Brady said. ''While the result didn't suggest anything, we certainly kept an eye on it and had some discussions with betting operators about it on the Monday morning.
''Off the back of those discussions, we've got integrity agreements that allow us to look into betting detail. By Tuesday we'd decided to bring [Racing NSW chief steward] Ray Murrihy in to have a more forensic look for us.''
A resolution to the federal election would not be reached for 17 days until two independent kingmakers would hand Gillard the reins to the country. The fallout from the NRL betting scandal is, five months later, only just beginning.
http://www.smh.com.au/rugby-league/...roversial-as-the-election-20110202-1adv7.html
