Russia vs Ukraine

[The DoggFather]

Is this evil still going?

 

[south of heaven]

Is this evil still going?

For a long time yet I reakons.

 

[alchemist]

Is this evil still going?

you should pay attention... whatever the result, the world ain't going to be the same after this war

 

[Bob dog]

Estimated four months of fighting left.
This is not how civilization operates in 2022.
What is it with the Commies trying to flex their muscle around the world all of a sudden?

 

[alchemist]

Estimated four months of fighting left.
This is not how civilization operates in 2022.
What is it with the Commies trying to flex their muscle around the world all of a sudden?

longer than that... it's a bloody slog on the ground from Kharkov in the north down to Kherson in the south, weapons keep pouring into Ukraine, and no one is trying to diplomatically resolve the war... this is going to be disaster for everyone

 

[Disposable Hero]

Estimated four months of fighting left.
This is not how civilization operates in 2022.
What is it with the Commies trying to flex their muscle around the world all of a sudden?

It has only taken this long because of Murikas involvement. I mean not involvement cough.

 

[alchemist]

It has only taken this long because of Murikas involvement. I mean not involvement cough.

openly being stated in the US that the Ukrainian War is a proxy war between Russia and the West

 

[Doogie]

longer than that... it's a bloody slog on the ground from Kharkov in the north down to Kherson in the south, weapons keep pouring into Ukraine, and no one is trying to diplomatically resolve the war... this is going to be disaster for everyone

So - hypothetically - what is the basis for a diplomatic ending? Russia bows to no one and has made it clear that liberation of the Donbas is the objective. Ukraine have painted a picture of indiscriminate targeting of civilians and that they will take back what they lost in 2014. I'm not naive enough to think that all the civilian damage is only Russia (u shoot where the soldiers are hiding) but the positions here are way too far apart.

Russia in particular with the use of mercs, untrained kids and the subsequent atrocities has led to a complete removal of any form of Russian empathy from the Ukrainian people.

No one can solve this diplomatically now. The only way this stops is a change in Russian leadership and even then, they need some way to withdraw. And I just cannot see one. Maybe give Russian Donbas and Ukraine Crimea (per previous) at least both sides win something. But this will not end even then - Ukrainians won't forget this in a hurry and Russia will continue to play games.

If you have some spare cash - invest in military companies. They are going to have a field day with all this.

 

[likeadoggy]

seems the good guys are winning

 

[Jai81]

seems the good guys are winning

the good guys are surviving, we havent heard the last of Russia yet

 

[Disposable Hero]

seems the good guys are winning

Who are the good guys?

 

[south of heaven]

Who are the good guys?

 

[Disposable Hero]

Dont trust these fuckers always selling the old run out stock

 

[Tassie Devil]

the good guys are surviving, we havent heard the last of Russia yet

Yeah, I think it's more like this.

While Ukraine is managing to hold on they're hardly winning much with massive casulaties every day.

It seems the Russians shifted to artillery attacks which kills on mass, but are losing a lot themselves with the following up infantry attacks. While Russia clearly will never take all of Ukraine, the worry is that they'll take a section of it which no one wants.

I guess the key is how much the West continues to support Ukraine? Seems as though Germany and the US are sending longrange missile systems which will apparently make a big difference but we'll see?

 

[alchemist]

Yeah, I think it's more like this.

While Ukraine is managing to hold on they're hardly winning much with massive casulaties every day.

It seems the Russians shifted to artillery attacks which kills on mass, but are losing a lot themselves with the following up infantry attacks. While Russia clearly will never take all of Ukraine, the worry is that they'll take a section of it which no one wants.

I guess the key is how much the West continues to support Ukraine? Seems as though Germany and the US are sending longrange missile systems which will apparently make a big difference but we'll see?

non-Russian military analysts that I read put the estimate of Ukrainian soldier deaths at 400-700 per day... and that number is only going to get worse

and a grand total of 4 HIMARS short range rocket systems from the US conditioned on a verbal assurance from Ukraine not to use said rockets against Russian territory with supposedly 4 more each from Germany and the UK won't change anything on a strategic level

 

[Doogie]

non-Russian military analysts that I read put the estimate of Ukrainian soldier deaths at 400-700 per day... and that number is only going to get worse

and a grand total of 4 HIMARS short range rocket systems from the US conditioned on a verbal assurance from Ukraine not to use said rockets against Russian territory with supposedly 4 more each from Germany and the UK won't change anything on a strategic level

Pretty obvious this is currently looking like a game of chess. Russia playing games with Kharkiv to keep Ukrainians deployed there, whilst they go hard to capture the rest of Donbass. In the meantime, Ukraine recognising that Russian are stretched around Kherson with long supply lines and are pushing hard in the south. D'pends where they deploy the himars. If they use them strategically in the Donbass and keep them active, then they may hold the Russians back a bit and get them to make hard choices in the south.

At that point it becomes a meat grinder.

No slam dunks here.

 

[alchemist]

Pretty obvious this is currently looking like a game of chess. Russia playing games with Kharkiv to keep Ukrainians deployed there, whilst they go hard to capture the rest of Donbass. In the meantime, Ukraine recognising that Russian are stretched around Kherson with long supply lines and are pushing hard in the south. D'pends where they deploy the himars. If they use them strategically in the Donbass and keep them active, then they may hold the Russians back a bit and get them to make hard choices in the south.

At that point it becomes a meat grinder.

No slam dunks here.

if the Ukrainians want to attack Russian supply lines along the south coast, then Kherson is not the place to attack... Kherson is well protected and now too important for Russia... a little eastward and the Ukrainians could have some joy hitting a transportation hub (in particular, the railway)... as for the Ukrainian attack near Kherson, it supposedly did not go well --> Russians claim 200 Ukrainian dead plus plenty of vehicles destroyed

the Donbass is a bloody slog... the Ukrainian defensive line was well built up over 8 years and ran through the Donbass which the separatists were not able to break through during that period... but the Russians have a clear advantage in artillery and air power... they batter the areas with artillery, then send in armoured units and infantry with air cover... slowly but surely they will just keep overrunning Ukrainian positions

not sure if Kharkov is going to get the Mariupol treatment just yet... I think the Russians were underwhelmed by the reception they got from the locals in the first stages of the war

 

[Doogie]

if the Ukrainians want to attack Russian supply lines along the south coast, then Kherson is not the place to attack... Kherson is well protected and now too important for Russia... a little eastward and the Ukrainians could have some joy hitting a transportation hub (in particular, the railway)... as for the Ukrainian attack near Kherson, it supposedly did not go well --> Russians claim 200 Ukrainian dead plus plenty of vehicles destroyed

the Donbass is a bloody slog... the Ukrainian defensive line was well built up over 8 years and ran through the Donbass which the separatists were not able to break through during that period... but the Russians have a clear advantage in artillery and air power... they batter the areas with artillery, then send in armoured units and infantry with air cover... slowly but surely they will just keep overrunning Ukrainian positions

not sure if Kharkov is going to get the Mariupol treatment just yet... I think the Russians were underwhelmed by the reception they got from the locals in the first stages of the war

Agree but never said to attack Kherson, just that its getting increasingly more isolated and harder to supply. If u go with the argument that Russia might call for a truce if they have Donbass and a land bridge to Crimea, Kherson is sitting out there a bit.

Kharkiv is a distraction.

Agree with everything else u said - don't think its a surprise they've had a local 'government' asking for Russia intervention in Kherson. Sort of legitimises Russian presence for any action they take into the future to hold onto it. But I'm definitely buying into the argument that Russia is bleeding in all of this and after everything, hard to see how the Russian sphere of influence will ever be credible again.

 

[alchemist]

Agree but never said to attack Kherson, just that its getting increasingly more isolated and harder to supply. If u go with the argument that Russia might call for a truce if they have Donbass and a land bridge to Crimea, Kherson is sitting out there a bit.

Kharkiv is a distraction.

Agree with everything else u said - don't think its a surprise they've had a local 'government' asking for Russia intervention in Kherson. Sort of legitimises Russian presence for any action they take into the future to hold onto it. But I'm definitely buying into the argument that Russia is bleeding in all of this and after everything, hard to see how the Russian sphere of influence will ever be credible again.

I am not really buying the continuing isolation of Kherson since Crimea is right there to supply Kherson and Russia controls the seas around Crimea and it is now connected to the Russian mainland via bridge for both vehicles and trains... hence, why Kherson has thrown off the Ukrainian symbols, raised the Russian and Soviet victory flags, the region has been transferred to the Russian phone system, has called for reunification with Russia and most importantly, it controls the canal that provides fresh water to Crimea... hard to see the Russians giving it back now

as for the Russian sphere of influence, it's hard to tell at the moment and in truth, it will depend on the resolution of this war... in fact, from an international relations and great power politics perspective, this Ukrainian crisis is one of the great geopolitical poker games ever played --> whatever the result, there is no going back politically, economically, socially, militarily, strategically etc. and everyone is gambling BIG!

 

[Doogie]

I am not really buying the continuing isolation of Kherson since Crimea is right there to supply Kherson and Russia controls the seas around Crimea and it is now connected to the Russian mainland via bridge for both vehicles and trains... hence, why Kherson has thrown off the Ukrainian symbols, raised the Russian and Soviet victory flags, the region has been transferred to the Russian phone system, has called for reunification with Russia and most importantly, it controls the canal that provides fresh water to Crimea... hard to see the Russians giving it back now

as for the Russian sphere of influence, it's hard to tell at the moment and in truth, it will depend on the resolution of this war... in truth, from an international relations and great power politics perspective, this Ukrainian crisis is one of the great geopolitical poker games ever played --> whatever the result, there is no going back politically, economically, socially, militarily, strategically etc. and everyone is gambling BIG!

I see your view but will throw this back that there is the Dnipro. Pretty hard to logistically defend across a river (and Kherson is on the wrong side).

Agree about the geopolitics but don't think fear is ever a great basis for a relationship.