Bad recruiting

[TwinTurbo]

The odds are determined by the bettors (~95% accurate so sportsbet are making money but that applies to every bet so it's irrelevant).

The built in assumption in that is that for every person with a winning bet there is a person with the same value losing bet. But if they can swing the betting away from the most likely winner then they make even more ie; more losers than winners. It's pretty simple maths and they have very sophisticated algorithms with instantaneous data updates to make sure that they maximise their profits.

In simple terms, say 1,000 NRL $10 betters think we are going to finish last compared to say 100 Bulldogs betters at $10 who think we won't finish last. When we don't finish last guess who wins the most? Tip, it isn't the Bulldogs betters. So if the Sportbet's algorithm predicts that the Bulldogs won't finish last it's in their interests (more profit) to push more bets towards us finishing last by offering better odds on that side of the bet. It's a furphy to believe that the predictor is reflected in the odds offered, most often it isn't.

Go Dogs

 

[bradyk]

The built in assumption in that is that for every person with a winning bet there is a person with the same value losing bet. But if they can swing the betting away from the most likely winner then they make even more ie; more losers than winners. It's pretty simple maths and they have very sophisticated algorithms with instantaneous data updates to make sure that they maximise their profits.

In simple terms, say 1,000 NRL $10 betters think we are going to finish last compared to say 100 Bulldogs betters at $10 who think we won't finish last. When we don't finish last guess who wins the most? Tip, it isn't the Bulldogs betters. So if the Sportbet's algorithm predicts that the Bulldogs won't finish last it's in their interests (more profit) to push more bets towards us finishing last by offering better odds on that side of the bet. It's furphy to believe that the predictor is reflected in the odds offered, most often it isn't.

Go Dogs

I don't really know what you're saying but it looks like a conspiracy theory. Like I said the odds aren't 100% as sportsbet and other agencies need to make profit (I'm not talking about shady agencies but licensed ones). This applies to every bet and both sides. Even without that I have/had this opinion. I don't agree with where the Cowboys are expected to finish (odds wise) for e.g. but I respect it.

 

[TwinTurbo]

Please name me the spines of the clubs who have won the comp since 2012

Cowboys 2016 had a below average fullback in Coote, an OK 5/8 in Morgan, an average hooker in Granville. BUT of course they had Thurston, so you would claim that the rest of their average/below average spine was more than made up for by one player, hence they had a quality spine. Whereas I maintain that one player in the spine may well be the difference between winning and losing but not ALL of the spine is as relevant. So IF (a big if) Foran was available together with DWZ then our spline doesn't look that bad on average.

Go Dogs

 

[halfcast]

the test will be if we go after xerri as has knocked back the sharks offer

 

[bradyk]

the test will be if we go after xerri as has knocked back the sharks offer

No chance unless we offer dumb money (we know other clubs will at least).

 

[halfcast]

gonna have to pay massive overs

 

[bradyk]

gonna have to pay massive overs

So he isn't a player we're looking at. We're looking at opportunists and rejects that have no other options (the Storm method but we're still not an attraction) which Xerri isn't categorised in. I personally don't have a problem with offering overs but if another club above us offers the same we have to pull out. We need to at least have competitive offers. I saw we only matched JAC's 350k. I hope this isn't true.

 

[TwinTurbo]

I don't really know what you're saying but it looks like a conspiracy theory. Like I said the odds aren't 100% as sportsbet and other agencies need to make profit (I'm not talking about shady agencies but licensed ones). This applies to every bet and both sides. Even without that I have/had this opinion. I don't agree with where the Cowboys are expected to finish (odds wise) for e.g. but I respect it.

One more try, every betting agency has a predictor (sophisticated algorithm) into which they feed all the relevant data. That's often how they initially determine the odds that they offer, but as the money flows in the predictor changes accordingly. But they are not obligated to change the odds, they can not change them or change them in a different direction. So if the predictor says the Bulldogs are not finishing last but the money is coming in supporting us finishing last then they make more money if they don't change the odds.

In simple terms, what you are seeing is the odds that they are offering which may or may not reflect where their predictor is actually predicting that we will finish. Because they are offering the odds that will make them the most money.

Go Dogs

 

[MichaelM]

When considering how much our squad will improve we also need to factor in the benefit of first grade experience

with a young team there will be upside regardless of recruitment

plus we are long overdue to unearth a young gun and that’s the kind of X factor that can really change your fortunes.

 

[bradyk]

One more try, every betting agency has a predictor (sophisticated algorithm) into which they feed all the relevant data. That's often how they initially determine the odds that they offer, but as the money flows in the predictor changes accordingly. But they are not obligated to change the odds, they can not change them or change them in a different direction. So if the predictor says the Bulldogs are not finishing last but the money is coming in supporting us finishing last then they make more money if they don't change the odds.

In simple terms, what you are seeing is the odds that they are offering which may or may not reflect where their predictor is actually predicting that we will finish. Because they are offering the odds that will make them the most money.

Go Dogs

Even if true we wouldn't move up much from second last. I really don't think it works like that tho. It either starts 0-0 or 50-50 and then adjusts due to the bets that come in. The agency takes a cut so if it's 50-50 it's actually 47-47 for e.g. so either way the result goes the agency makes money. GF winner: 2nd last, Wodden spoon: 2nd, Premiership: 2nd last, Make GF: 2nd last, top 4 finish: 2nd last, top 8 finish: 2nd last.

 

[bradyk]

When considering how much our squad will improve we also need to factor in the benefit of first grade experience

with a young team there will be upside regardless of recruitment

plus we are long overdue to unearth a young gun and that’s the kind of X factor that can really change your fortunes.

Other teams and players improve too. I'm not relying on a young gun to come through. If one does that'd be nice. I feel like it's more likely they'll be at other clubs (that's what it has looked like over the years anyways).

 

[DinkumDog]

The odds are determined by the bettors (~95% accurate so sportsbet are making money but that applies to every bet so it's irrelevant).

So many variables in the RL season the odds can change at any time. I think this means very little and personally pay no attention to it in terms of who’s going to finish where. The slightest variance can pocket Sportbet millions but make the predictions no more accurate.

 

[bradyk]

So many variables in the RL season the odds can change at any time. I think this means very little and personally pay no attention to it in terms of who’s going to finish where. The slightest variance can pocket Sportbet millions but make the predictions no more accurate.

I agree it does change very quickly and a few results can do that. This is just what I use to help with expectations going into the season. I believe it's accurate without it (I was saying this before I had even looked at the odds - months ago, I just had a look to see if I was crazy or not).

 

[Natboy]

We're looking at opportunists and rejects that have no other options.

Can we make a deal mate? When you are proven wrong do you promise not to repeat that line on here again?

 

[bradyk]

Can we make a deal mate? When you are proven wrong do you promise not to repeat that line on here again?

100%. If we pay overs tho it doesn't count. As soon as I see something I'll be the first to admit I was wrong trust.

 

[Natboy]

100%. If we pay overs tho it doesn't count. As soon as I see something I'll be the first to admit I was wrong trust.

Ok cool deal. The market is heavily inflated at the moment so overs isn’t overs like it used to be but you’re the expert on overs so I’ll leave it to you haha

 

[bradyk]

gonna have to pay massive overs

I just saw the article on ZeroTackle/Fox Sports. If Xerri has knocked back 500k a year over 5 years we're going to be looking at 700-800k. Would people be comfortable paying that for a centre (who you're still buying on potential as he isn't the best centre in the game currently)? A team like the Roosters could get him cheaper of course (I'd say 400-600k - depending on the reasons why he doesn't want to re-sign) but we don't have that luxury. Like I said Xerri will have a lot of competition from almost everyone so there is no world where we get him for a good price.

 

[Natboy]

I just saw the article on ZeroTackle/Fox Sports. If Xerri has knocked back 500k a year over 5 years we're going to be looking at 700-800k. Would people be comfortable paying that for a centre (who you're still buying on potential as he isn't the best centre in the game currently)? A team like the Roosters could get him cheaper of course (I'd say 400-600k - depending on the reasons why he doesn't want to re-sign) but we don't have that luxury. Like I said Xerri will have a lot of competition from almost everyone so there is no world where we get him for a good price.

He’ll go to the roosters to be with his boyfriend

 

[bradyk]

He’ll go to the roosters to be with his boyfriend

We could of got the boyfriend

 

[Natboy]

We could of got the boyfriend

Haha we could’ve