We've barely strengthened whereas others have (e.g. Cowboys) as well as I believe a few of the teams that finish below us are better than us on paper and had a poor season last year (e.g. Dragons). Titans are the only team I can say we're "certainties" to finish above with the Warriors close to that.
I agree that based on the start of last year we were 2, 3 or maybe 4 quality NRL players short. But after the last 1/3rd of season I'm not convinced that it will be the same for the start of this season. I think of the players that we have released and who is filling their positions. such as Lichaa & Brown out with JMK & Katoa in, Stimson & Britt in and Fualalo & Tualau out, etc. Allowing for positional swaps we have DWZ, Hopoate and Meaney for this year whereas last year we had Crichton, Olive and Montoya. DWZ is killing it, Hopoate is much more productive for us at centre than fullback and Meaney has progressed rapidly on the wing. Different positions for sure, but a net far better package. Added to that is the experienced gained by the younger players last year in Cogger, Wakeham, Okunbor, Lewis and Harper. For them this is the year to stand up and be counted as an NRL level player.
As for the other teams, I see their losses as being greater than their gains, not necessarily one on one but in total numbers. Some examples;
There is no way Mitchell fills the gaps left by the departure of 2 x Burgess, Sutton and Inglis, net I see Souths as not having upgraded this year. That doesn't mean they have bad team, just on paper not as good as it was last year.
Melbourne to me are the big losers having lost Croft, Scott, Kata, Chambers and Stimson (and maybe JAC) with just Riley Jacks as an acquisition and Brenko Lee FFS. That's a big net loss and if Smith starts feeling his age even more, they will need every one of Bellamy's magic tricks. That's why they are demanding a heavy price for JAC's release, they need a quality replacement and are going to play hard ball until they get it. They really need the NRL to approve the Momirovski and Grant trade.
Compared to this time last year the Chooks have lost Cronk, Mitchell and Tetevano and gained Flanagan, surely that is more talent lost than gained.
The Cowboys are pretty weak in the front row with Molo (25) Hola (20) and Gilbert (19) they could well struggle in the middle after losing Scott and Bolton plus Kahu, Tuala and Martin.
I can't see the Tigers making the 8 after losing Farah, Rochow, Matulino, Fonua, Marsters and Matterson. They do have Cap space so can still improve their roster. They also need the NRL to approve the Momirovski and Grant trade.
The Titans have so much talent that they had to resurrect Gordon for the 9's, enough said, even more so if they lose Arrow. Holbrook might need some (a lot) of that Bellamy magic dust.
As long as McGregor is their coach I don't see the Dragons doing much, not sure how much effect Flanagan can have as assistant.
I don't rate Croft, so I can't see the Donkeys improving much. Especially without Dargan, Gillett, Fensom, Tagataese, Mago and Segeyaro.
The Sharks have lost a lot with Brailey, Feki, Flanagan, Gallen and Capewell gone. Plus I don't rate Morris as a coach, he basically followed Flanagan's selections, processes and plays early on and as the season went on he installed his own which demonstrably didn't work out. They have 4 centres and not much in the way of NRL level wingers, adding it up I don't think they will make the 8 either.
The Knights have lost a lot of experience in Kenny-Dowall, Gavet, Buhrer, Ramien, Ross and Levi. With a new coaching staff I wouldn't be surprised in they didn't make the 8 either.
Warriors, who knows, they haven't really signed anyone of note, plus no Ayshford or Luke this year. I think they will struggle to make the 8.
The Panthers they have lost some reasonable players in RCG, Grant, Katoa, McKendry, Egan, Fuimaono and Winterstein but they have recruited some decent players as well in Koroisau, Capewell and Tetevano. They should be there or thereabouts, but could just as easily miss out.
In summary, when I actually analyse each teams gains and losses compared to last year we stack up pretty well.
Go Dogs