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Melbourne! Is there any hope?

Fear.The.Roo

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This is a must win for dogs to bring in some confidence.

Firstly how do we scored a try?
Secondly how do we beat them?
Is it possible for this team to beat them?
No hope of winning.
What I'd be happy with at this point in time is being competitive for 80 minutes.
To score a try or 2
If we lose under 12 points I'll be happy with that and that gives us something to build on.

Wow, how times have changed
 

B-Train

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then you need to remember it was 20-0 after 55 minutes and 26-0 after 60 minutes

i think we can score a try because of the thompson, but it will be something like 6-36
Yeah, that's what happens under the current rules and you're up against guys like Cook, Walker, Latrell etc who can blow a game open. The team fell apart in the last 20.
 

B-Train

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I remember when we consistently got the better of Melbourne and had the best record against them out of any other club. Recent matchups haven't been as kind though as the gulf in talent between the two clubs is bigger than ever. Hopefully next year we can start beating them again.
 

GoTheDoggies

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It's going to get very ugly. This week we'll go rock bottom and we'll stay there with Baz at the helm.
 

Bulldog1966

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I remember when we consistently got the better of Melbourne and had the best record against them out of any other club. Recent matchups haven't been as kind though as the gulf in talent between the two clubs is bigger than ever. Hopefully next year we can start beating them again.
I remember these times too we could beat them at least half the time and in Melbourne, bar two BIG hiccups in a GF and that fugging kick straight into Geyer's arms we mostly gave it to them in the finals too.
 

Rodzilla

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Yeah, that's what happens under the current rules and you're up against guys like Cook, Walker, Latrell etc who can blow a game open. The team fell apart in the last 20.
the rules have been out for over a year and the dragons/tigers were able to improve and beat newcastle, warriors were able to beat canberra

these are the weakest excuses of all time coming out now, we were down by only 14pts after 50 minutes and the rules of rugby league are unfair on us

we are just weak and collapse after a certain amount of time, it doesnt matter if its south sydney or st george last year
 

B-Train

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the rules have been out for over a year and the dragons/tigers were able to improve and beat newcastle, warriors were able to beat canberra

these are the weakest excuses of all time coming out now, we were down by only 14pts after 50 minutes and the rules of rugby league are unfair on us

we are just weak and collapse after a certain amount of time, it doesnt matter if its south sydney or st george last year
Haha. You really have no clue do you? Do you realise the only reason both those teams came back is because they were playing against teams with 4 guys injured for a whole half?

Pearce was injured after 25. Then Hoy at half time. Then Mann. Then Klemmer with 20 to go. Same deal with Canberra with all of their forwards against NZ.. But hey, don't let the truth get in the way of your delusion..
 

Rodzilla

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Haha. You really have no clue do you? Do you realise the only reason both those teams came back is because they were playing against teams with 4 guys injured for a whole half?

Pearce was injured after 25. Then Hoy at half time. Then Mann. Then Klemmer with 20 to go. Same deal with Canberra with all of their forwards against NZ.. But hey, don't let the truth get in the way of your delusion..
the delusion here is that the current bulldogs are not the worst team of all time and its coming from you

"people need to remember that it was only 0-14 after 50 minutes"

"people need to remember that cronulla were 1.20 favourites when they beat us, so we should expect to lose"

"people need to remember that it was 0-0 when they kicked off the game"

"people need to remember that manly are also shit, so that makes it ok for us to also be shit"

"people need to remember that we almost scored a try in those 3 games"
 

B-Train

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the delusion here is that the current bulldogs are not the worst team of all time and its coming from you

"people need to remember that it was only 0-14 after 50 minutes"

"people need to remember that cronulla were 1.20 favourites when they beat us, so we should expect to lose"

"people need to remember that it was 0-0 when they kicked off the game"

"people need to remember that manly are also shit, so that makes it ok for us to also be shit"

"people need to remember that we almost scored a try in those 3 games"
Of course we're playing like shit. But look at how shit Manly and the Cowboys have been with far more talent?

Plus we've played Newcastle who are average, Brisbane who are shit and Melbourne, Souths and Penrith who are the three best teams in the comp.

I'll wait to see how we go against bad and more beatable teams like Nth Qld, Cronulla and Saints before I cry myself to sleep like you do.
 

The 2nd Spitter

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Bulldogs $11 v Melbourne $1.04

That’s the biggest price we would have been since markets started.
I am not a gambling person, but have a professional interest in the valuation of futures, so here are some obsevations:
-- $11 in a two horse is outrageous.
-- In the NFL, there's an empircal observation that underdogs that face two-digit spreads in consecutive weeks, cover a large percentange of the time. In the NRL, a 20 plus point spread is at least statistically equivalent a two-digit spread in the NFL.
---The variance in the spread (currently -24.5) is wild . It increases by $0.28 plus two extra points.

Take it with the a grain of salt, (and contrary to what I wrote earlier in this thread), I would take the the Dogs at +24.5 in a heartbeat, if I was to bet on this game.
 
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doggieaaron

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We have a good record against storm and some troops back and totally written off it will be closer than most think thommo up front will be a big difference
 

SPEARTAKVIDREFS

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Of all our problems, our last tackle option is our biggest let down I reckon.
Flano getting tackled on the 5th is unacceptable and sais alot after 4 rounds.
If we scored early against broncos we win.
You just know when we are in great field position and we fail to apply pressure at the try line or try or reap a repeat set early in the game that we are in for a flogging which has been the case. We cant afford to blow those opportunities but we do nothing with them.
The effort and heart is there, our execution is non existent.
Its not the cattle, something is seriously fucked up. Weve scored buggar all this year.
Im not shocked or surprised we ar nil from 4 games, I thought we had a chance of winning 2 from the first 5 before season started.
I am shocked we are scoring less with a better roster than Pay.
Its not the rule changes either, its the options we are taking near the try line.
 

Rodzilla

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Of course we're playing like shit. But look at how shit Manly and the Cowboys have been with far more talent?

Plus we've played Newcastle who are average, Brisbane who are shit and Melbourne, Souths and Penrith who are the three best teams in the comp.

I'll wait to see how we go against bad and more beatable teams like Nth Qld, Cronulla and Saints before I cry myself to sleep like you do.
wtf are you stalking me now? that night i got shampoo in my eyes and it was very irritating

we might have to wait until manly before we can grab a win ffs, when do they release the draw for 2022 because i want to book tickets for that match
 

B-Train

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wtf are you stalking me now? that night i got shampoo in my eyes and it was very irritating

we might have to wait until manly before we can grab a win ffs, when do they release the draw for 2022 because i want to book tickets for that match
Enjoy mate
 

Bulldog1966

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I am not a gambling person, but have a professional interest in the valuation of futures, so here are some obsevations:
-- $11 in a two horse is outrageous.
-- In the NFL, there's an empircal observation that underdogs with face two-digit spreads in consecutive weeks, cover a large percentange of the time. In the NRL, a 20 plus point spread is at least statistically equivalent a two-digit spread in the NFL.
---The variance in the spread (currently -24.5) is wild . It increases by $0.28 plus two extra points.

Take it with the a grain of salt, (and contrary to what I wrote earlier in this), I would take the the Dogs at +24.5 in a heartbeat, if I was to bet on this game.
Souths are also 1.06 and the line is -20.5 these short odds are unheard of and that their all winning (so far) means less risks are being taken by the bookies.

I am a gambler and have had decent success particularly in rounds 2 and 4 backing these super short favourites, not at the set line(although id guess all have beat the set lines also)but at the safer 13+ margin and adding other combos like winning both halves(odds for this are surprisingly not too bad)and the h2h win to boost the short quote in 3 leg same game multi's.
Have only backed the actual line in one game the Eels -7.5 V Sharks.

As said i think every very short favourite has probably covered the line so far this season(haven't checked as i rarely bet this option)but i agree with you a line of 24.5 is big and i would not take this at the skinny odds they offer of 1.90 usually.

i will be sticking with the formula i have used so far provided i can get the odds to a certain price which has to be comfortably over $1.50 these bets are as close to a sure thing as can be at the moment imo short priced winner beats a long priced loser..one is bound to lose eventually of course but if one sticks with the same starting stake will still be well in front..the actual set lines maybe not as much success or more chance of failure.
 

Howie B

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Souths are also 1.06 and the line is -20.5 these short odds are unheard of and that their all winning (so far) means less risks are being taken by the bookies.

I am a gambler and have had decent success particularly in rounds 2 and 4 backing these super short favourites, not at the set line(although id guess all have beat the set lines also)but at the safer 13+ margin and adding other combos like winning both halves(odds for this are surprisingly not too bad)and the h2h win to boost the short quote in 3 leg same game multi's.
Have only backed the actual line in one game the Eels -7.5 V Sharks.

As said i think every very short favourite has probably covered the line so far this season(haven't checked as i rarely bet this option)but i agree with you a line of 24.5 is big and i would not take this at the skinny odds they offer of 1.90 usually.

i will be sticking with the formula i have used so far provided i can get the odds to a certain price which has to be comfortably over $1.50 these bets are as close to a sure thing as can be at the moment imo short priced winner beats a long priced loser..one is bound to lose eventually of course but if one sticks with the same starting stake will still be well in front..the actual set lines maybe not as much success or more chance of failure.
I think it’s a different games these days though with the new rules. The stronger teams just seem more dominant with less stoppages
 

Bulldog1966

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Yep your probably right so the line bets are maybe more "value" in today's game i've just never liked the size of the margins and wouldnt take the -24.5 against the Dogs, even though its a possibilty and the line has been exceeded(or within half a point against broncs)in all our 4 losses.
Might make a note of them this week and see how many salute.
 
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