News Flooding

GoTheDoggies

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Another 1 in 100 year event for the third time in the space of 1 and a half years.

Global warming in action
 

Hacky McAxe

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Another 1 in 100 year event for the third time in the space of 1 and a half years.

Global warming in action
Welcome to climate change. This is the stuff scientists have been warning us about for the last 30 years. Hotter summers. Colder winters. Heavier flooding. Stronger storms. And it's only going to get worse.
 

Rodzilla

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Welcome to climate change. This is the stuff scientists have been warning us about for the last 30 years. Hotter summers. Colder winters. Heavier flooding. Stronger storms. And it's only going to get worse.
the scientists don't have the best track record ffs


1967: Dire Famine Forecast By 1975
1969: Everyone Will Disappear In a Cloud Of Blue Steam By 1989 (1969)
1969: Worldwide Plague, Overwhelming Pollution, Ecological Catastrophe, Virtual Collapse of UK by End of 20th Century
1970: Ice Age By 2000
1970: America Subject to Water Rationing By 1974 and Food Rationing By 1980
1970: Oceans Dead in a Decade, US Water Rationing by 1974, Food Rationing by 1980
1970: Urban Citizens Will Require Gas Masks by 1985
1970: Nitrogen buildup Will Make All Land Unusable
1970: Decaying Pollution Will Kill all the Fish
1970: World Will Use Up All its Natural Resources
1970s: Killer Bees!
1971: New Ice Age Coming By 2020 or 2030
1972: New Ice Age By 2070
1972: Pending Depletion and Shortages of Gold, Tin, Oil, Natural Gas, Copper, Aluminum
1972: Oil Depleted in 20 Years
1974: Space Satellites Show New Ice Age Coming Fast
1974: Another Ice Age?
1974: Ozone Depletion a ‘Great Peril to Life (data and graph)
1975: The Cooling World and a Drastic Decline in Food Production
1976: Scientific Consensus Planet Cooling, Famines imminent
1977: Department of Energy Says Oil will Peak in 1990s
1980: Acid Rain Kills Life In Lakes (additional link)
1980: Peak Oil In 2000
1978: No End in Sight to 30-Year Cooling Trend (additional link)
1988: Regional Droughts (that never happened) in 1990s
1988: Temperatures in DC Will Hit Record Highs
1988: Maldive Islands will Be Underwater by 2018 (they’re not)
1988: World’s Leading Climate Expert Predicts Lower Manhattan Underwater by 2018
1989: Rising Sea Levels will Obliterate Nations if Nothing Done by 2000
1989: New York City’s West Side Highway Underwater by 2019 (it’s not)
1989: UN Warns That Entire Nations Wiped Off the Face of the Earth by 2000 From Global Warming
1996: Peak Oil in 2020
2000: Children Won’t Know what Snow Is
2002: Famine In 10 Years If We Don’t Give Up Eating Fish, Meat, and Dairy
2002: Peak Oil in 2010
2004: Britain will Be Siberia by 2024
2005 : Manhattan Underwater by 2015
2005: Fifty Million Climate Refugees by the Year 2020
2008: Arctic will Be Ice Free by 2018
2008: Climate Genius Al Gore Predicts Ice-Free Arctic by 2013
2009: Climate Genius Prince Charles Says we Have 96 Months to Save World
2009: UK Prime Minister Says 50 Days to ‘Save The Planet From Catastrophe’
2009: Climate Genius Al Gore Moves 2013 Prediction of Ice-Free Arctic to 2014
2013: Arctic Ice-Free by 2015 (additional link)
2014: Only 500 Days Before ‘Climate Chaos’
 

tonee

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the scientists don't have the best track record ffs


1967: Dire Famine Forecast By 1975
1969: Everyone Will Disappear In a Cloud Of Blue Steam By 1989 (1969)
1969: Worldwide Plague, Overwhelming Pollution, Ecological Catastrophe, Virtual Collapse of UK by End of 20th Century
1970: Ice Age By 2000
1970: America Subject to Water Rationing By 1974 and Food Rationing By 1980
1970: Oceans Dead in a Decade, US Water Rationing by 1974, Food Rationing by 1980
1970: Urban Citizens Will Require Gas Masks by 1985
1970: Nitrogen buildup Will Make All Land Unusable
1970: Decaying Pollution Will Kill all the Fish
1970: World Will Use Up All its Natural Resources
1970s: Killer Bees!
1971: New Ice Age Coming By 2020 or 2030
1972: New Ice Age By 2070
1972: Pending Depletion and Shortages of Gold, Tin, Oil, Natural Gas, Copper, Aluminum
1972: Oil Depleted in 20 Years
1974: Space Satellites Show New Ice Age Coming Fast
1974: Another Ice Age?
1974: Ozone Depletion a ‘Great Peril to Life (data and graph)
1975: The Cooling World and a Drastic Decline in Food Production
1976: Scientific Consensus Planet Cooling, Famines imminent
1977: Department of Energy Says Oil will Peak in 1990s
1980: Acid Rain Kills Life In Lakes (additional link)
1980: Peak Oil In 2000
1978: No End in Sight to 30-Year Cooling Trend (additional link)
1988: Regional Droughts (that never happened) in 1990s
1988: Temperatures in DC Will Hit Record Highs
1988: Maldive Islands will Be Underwater by 2018 (they’re not)
1988: World’s Leading Climate Expert Predicts Lower Manhattan Underwater by 2018
1989: Rising Sea Levels will Obliterate Nations if Nothing Done by 2000
1989: New York City’s West Side Highway Underwater by 2019 (it’s not)
1989: UN Warns That Entire Nations Wiped Off the Face of the Earth by 2000 From Global Warming
1996: Peak Oil in 2020
2000: Children Won’t Know what Snow Is
2002: Famine In 10 Years If We Don’t Give Up Eating Fish, Meat, and Dairy
2002: Peak Oil in 2010
2004: Britain will Be Siberia by 2024
2005 : Manhattan Underwater by 2015
2005: Fifty Million Climate Refugees by the Year 2020
2008: Arctic will Be Ice Free by 2018
2008: Climate Genius Al Gore Predicts Ice-Free Arctic by 2013
2009: Climate Genius Prince Charles Says we Have 96 Months to Save World
2009: UK Prime Minister Says 50 Days to ‘Save The Planet From Catastrophe’
2009: Climate Genius Al Gore Moves 2013 Prediction of Ice-Free Arctic to 2014
2013: Arctic Ice-Free by 2015 (additional link)
2014: Only 500 Days Before ‘Climate Chaos’
you forgot the year 2000 bug, everyone thought life was about to get reset
 

Doogie

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The projections aren't very accurate. They model likely scenarios based on known earth systems. Basically they can tell roughly how much the temperature will rise, and roughly how much the sea level will rise. That stuff is easy to model and has generally been accurate in the models (even though climate deniers will tell you it hasn't)

But the rest of the stuff is full of unknowns. So many feedback systems that are near impossible to model. Which is the actual scary part. The unknowns.
I'd disagree on the accuracy of the models. A simple t-test can tell you whether the climate is getting warmer (although sample size is crucial) but predicting the magnitude with acceptable error is the kicker. You'd know that its all based on ensemble modelling, so somewhere in there is a accurate model, by luck or quality work. There are also another 'x' number of models that are not. So accuracy becomes a question of what error you are prepared to accept. I'd think thats a one sided question, where model output being under is awful but being over is good.

So assuming you have somewhere to land on the global models, you are now caught up in downscaling. That has been a fck show for about 10 years. Believe there is a Aust wide downscaled toolkit somewhere on BOM. Don't use it as I generally don't need to - we are obliged to follow BOM but I've heard its meh. Cannot follow a stochastic process, what do you base that on? Maybe latitude shift? So you go deterministic and you described the issues nicely.

Just worth noting the biggest flood on record in western Sydney is the 1861. So there may also be a sample size issue with assessing floods.

Anyways, BOM in the morning told us tomorrow would be no rain. This arvo they're talking another dumping. No idea on the numbers - BOM modeller said some shit about 'wanting to share his work with the WaterVerse', so I just did other shit at that point.
 

GoTheDoggies

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Welcome to climate change. This is the stuff scientists have been warning us about for the last 30 years. Hotter summers. Colder winters. Heavier flooding. Stronger storms. And it's only going to get worse.
It's time to buy a Subaru AWD or 4x4 this is just ridiculous atm, roads flooded all over the place
 

Natboy

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People forget those French bastards were detonating atomic bombs on our ffen doorstep not long ago!
Exactly. Fuck them & don’t even think about asking for directions in Paris haha
 

GoTheDoggies

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We know the government is going to do diddly squat about infrastructure, maintenance, town planning etc, to deal with future flooding.

The government has unofficially declared it's every man for themselves with their inaction. What are your plans to deal with the flooding? Any setups around the house etc, looking to acquire new vehicles, pumps, generators etc..
 

GoTheDoggies

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WA has never looked better in all honesty, cheap property, no east coast lows, what's not to like?
 

belmore_utd

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. What are your plans to deal with the flooding? Any setups around the house etc, looking to acquire new vehicles, pumps, generators etc..
Bought a lifted 4wd and fitted a snorkel. Was flooded in for a week last march. The spastics here ofcourse went and immediately bought the one supermarket out of perishables probably not taking into account that I would stab them to death with a pool noodle for a 2sm
 

Kung fu man

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We know the government is going to do diddly squat about infrastructure, maintenance, town planning etc, to deal with future flooding.

The government has unofficially declared it's every man for themselves with their inaction. What are your plans to deal with the flooding? Any setups around the house etc, looking to acquire new vehicles, pumps, generators etc..
I'll give you an example of thier thinking, look up the new river crossing for nth Richmond, a proposal was put forward with 5 options nearly everyone you talk to about it selected the purple route yet they come out with a totally different one that actually goes through Richmond on top of a street full of houses across where the main bottleneck is located and across the river on the complete opposite side of the existing bridge and in no way flood free! And the purple route could be high enough for a flood free road all the way!
 
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