News Flooding

CroydonDog

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the scientists don't have the best track record ffs


1967: Dire Famine Forecast By 1975
1969: Everyone Will Disappear In a Cloud Of Blue Steam By 1989 (1969)
1969: Worldwide Plague, Overwhelming Pollution, Ecological Catastrophe, Virtual Collapse of UK by End of 20th Century
1970: Ice Age By 2000
1970: America Subject to Water Rationing By 1974 and Food Rationing By 1980
1970: Oceans Dead in a Decade, US Water Rationing by 1974, Food Rationing by 1980
1970: Urban Citizens Will Require Gas Masks by 1985
1970: Nitrogen buildup Will Make All Land Unusable
1970: Decaying Pollution Will Kill all the Fish
1970: World Will Use Up All its Natural Resources
1970s: Killer Bees!
1971: New Ice Age Coming By 2020 or 2030
1972: New Ice Age By 2070
1972: Pending Depletion and Shortages of Gold, Tin, Oil, Natural Gas, Copper, Aluminum
1972: Oil Depleted in 20 Years
1974: Space Satellites Show New Ice Age Coming Fast
1974: Another Ice Age?
1974: Ozone Depletion a ‘Great Peril to Life (data and graph)
1975: The Cooling World and a Drastic Decline in Food Production
1976: Scientific Consensus Planet Cooling, Famines imminent
1977: Department of Energy Says Oil will Peak in 1990s
1980: Acid Rain Kills Life In Lakes (additional link)
1980: Peak Oil In 2000
1978: No End in Sight to 30-Year Cooling Trend (additional link)
1988: Regional Droughts (that never happened) in 1990s
1988: Temperatures in DC Will Hit Record Highs
1988: Maldive Islands will Be Underwater by 2018 (they’re not)
1988: World’s Leading Climate Expert Predicts Lower Manhattan Underwater by 2018
1989: Rising Sea Levels will Obliterate Nations if Nothing Done by 2000
1989: New York City’s West Side Highway Underwater by 2019 (it’s not)
1989: UN Warns That Entire Nations Wiped Off the Face of the Earth by 2000 From Global Warming
1996: Peak Oil in 2020
2000: Children Won’t Know what Snow Is
2002: Famine In 10 Years If We Don’t Give Up Eating Fish, Meat, and Dairy
2002: Peak Oil in 2010
2004: Britain will Be Siberia by 2024
2005 : Manhattan Underwater by 2015
2005: Fifty Million Climate Refugees by the Year 2020
2008: Arctic will Be Ice Free by 2018
2008: Climate Genius Al Gore Predicts Ice-Free Arctic by 2013
2009: Climate Genius Prince Charles Says we Have 96 Months to Save World
2009: UK Prime Minister Says 50 Days to ‘Save The Planet From Catastrophe’
2009: Climate Genius Al Gore Moves 2013 Prediction of Ice-Free Arctic to 2014
2013: Arctic Ice-Free by 2015 (additional link)
2014: Only 500 Days Before ‘Climate Chaos’
If you're going to copy and paste as least have the decency to say where you got it from.
 

Hacky McAxe

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I'd disagree on the accuracy of the models. A simple t-test can tell you whether the climate is getting warmer (although sample size is crucial) but predicting the magnitude with acceptable error is the kicker. You'd know that its all based on ensemble modelling, so somewhere in there is a accurate model, by luck or quality work. There are also another 'x' number of models that are not. So accuracy becomes a question of what error you are prepared to accept. I'd think thats a one sided question, where model output being under is awful but being over is good.

So assuming you have somewhere to land on the global models, you are now caught up in downscaling. That has been a fck show for about 10 years. Believe there is a Aust wide downscaled toolkit somewhere on BOM. Don't use it as I generally don't need to - we are obliged to follow BOM but I've heard its meh. Cannot follow a stochastic process, what do you base that on? Maybe latitude shift? So you go deterministic and you described the issues nicely.

Just worth noting the biggest flood on record in western Sydney is the 1861. So there may also be a sample size issue with assessing floods.

Anyways, BOM in the morning told us tomorrow would be no rain. This arvo they're talking another dumping. No idea on the numbers - BOM modeller said some shit about 'wanting to share his work with the WaterVerse', so I just did other shit at that point.
Yeah, margin of error is always a funny one. From what I've seen, a decent number of models have been accurate long term (short term is always a crapshoot). But as you said, margin of error plays a large role. That said, there is a large difference between "within a large margin of error" and "every model has been wrong" as the deniers like to put it.

And most models now days are tested against past events to judge accuracy. Which is not really going to tell you how accurate it is for a long time.


 

Doogie

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Yeah, margin of error is always a funny one. From what I've seen, a decent number of models have been accurate long term (short term is always a crapshoot). But as you said, margin of error plays a large role. That said, there is a large difference between "within a large margin of error" and "every model has been wrong" as the deniers like to put it.

And most models now days are tested against past events to judge accuracy. Which is not really going to tell you how accurate it is for a long time.


Well - fun day today. Parts of Sydney - conservation order to lower water use starting tomorrow. And the worst is due later in the week.

And to top it all off - meeting with BOM today - 7 models say fck all rain at the end of this week. The 8th model say we get another 200m. Wtf do you do with that????
 

Rodzilla

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ffs people on the kennel get jealous so easily, its like im talking about their mum or something the way they defend the scientists
 

Hacky McAxe

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Well - fun day today. Parts of Sydney - conservation order to lower water use starting tomorrow. And the worst is due later in the week.

And to top it all off - meeting with BOM today - 7 models say fck all rain at the end of this week. The 8th model say we get another 200m. Wtf do you do with that????
As I said. Short term is always a crap shoot. And the BOM are the kings (and queens and... Non-binary royalty..) of short term.
 

Natboy

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So where are the bleaters??
‘I don’t hold a bucket mate’ :-).
It’s ok mate, he’s back today, visiting the Hawkesbury region on Thursday then off to Fiji. Did you know he grew up in public housing? He’s just making up for all the missed overseas holidays now. Albo has a plan…. to miss our winter
 

Flanagun

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So where are the bleaters??
‘I don’t hold a bucket mate’ :-).
I'm sure Albo had plenty of time to get a suntan in between attempting to undo diplomatic damage done by his predecessor and touring a war-torn country to show solidarity. One PM went on holiday, the other went on a pre-planned diplomatic trip, called to check in as soon as he could get to a working phone, and will visit the flood affected Hawkesbury on Thursday.

Yeah, the situations are heaps similar! Talk about strained false equivalences.
 

DinkumDog

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I'm sure Albo had plenty of time to get a suntan in between attempting to undo diplomatic damage done by his predecessor and touring a war-torn country to show solidarity. One PM went on holiday, the other went on a pre-planned diplomatic trip, called to check in as soon as he could get to a working phone, and will visit the flood affected Hawkesbury on Thursday.

Yeah, the situations are heaps similar! Talk about strained false equivalences.
I was extracting piss and you got offended.
Mission accomplished :-).
 

DinkumDog

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Why would I be offended by you making yourself look silly, Dink?
Well you took the bait didn’t you?
Taking the trouble to explain all the good Albo is up to?
I find it amusing and slightly ironic that a bloke who defends Herb and masquerades as Kyle (ie: literally inviting posters to lob grenades) did that :-).

But if you want to go there…

- If you honestly believe Albo ‘undid’ diplomatic damage with Macron, cool. Macron was just electioneering himself over the sub thing (guess it kinda worked, he got re-elected, albeit a decreased majority). Was the sub thing going to stop Australia getting a free trade deal with Europe? Doubt it - a complex arrangement that takes years to negotiate and finalise and involves a lot more than just France.

- Touring Kyiv. Nice gesture. Makes bugger all difference to the war.

I’d be much more focused on China and their Pacific ambitions than I would Europe. But that’s me.
 

south of heaven

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Well - fun day today. Parts of Sydney - conservation order to lower water use starting tomorrow. And the worst is due later in the week.

And to top it all off - meeting with BOM today - 7 models say fck all rain at the end of this week. The 8th model say we get another 200m. Wtf do you do with that????
Put chicken salt in the dam to absorb moisture stop flooding
 

Flanagun

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Well you took the bait didn’t you?
Taking the trouble to explain all the good Albo is up to?
I find it amusing and slightly ironic that a bloke who defends Herb and masquerades as Kyle (ie: literally inviting posters to lob grenades) did that :-).

But if you want to go there…

- If you honestly believe Albo ‘undid’ diplomatic damage with Macron, cool. Macron was just electioneering himself over the sub thing (guess it kinda worked, he got re-elected, albeit a decreased majority). Was the sub thing going to stop Australia getting a free trade deal with Europe? Doubt it - a complex arrangement that takes years to negotiate and finalise and involves a lot more than just France.

- Touring Kyiv. Nice gesture. Makes bugger all difference to the war.

I’d be much more focused on China and their Pacific ambitions than I would Europe. But that’s me.
That moment when you accuse someone of taking your "bait" then launch into a reply (complete with convoluted justification of your position) that is three times as long as the original comment you are responding to.

I'm just calling bullshit out as bullshit, Dink. You must know you're on a sticky wicket when the Liberal NSW Premier comes out and says criticism of Albo's handling of the crisis is boolsheet.

Leave world diplomacy to the pros, mate. Must be hard to get a good lay of the land when you're doing all that swinging. Lol
 

DinkumDog

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That moment when you accuse someone of taking your "bait" then launch into a reply (complete with convoluted justification of your position) that is three times as long as the original comment you are responding to.

I'm just calling bullshit out as bullshit, Dink. You must know you're on a sticky wicket when the Liberal NSW Premier comes out and says criticism of Albo's handling of the crisis is boolsheet.

Leave world diplomacy to the pros, mate. Must be hard to get a good lay of the land when you're doing all that swinging. Lol
OK. If you’re so good at calling out bullshit than that’s the last post we’ve seen defending Herb and our extremely average Number 7, yeah?

PS: I wasn’t criticising Albo’s handling at all.
I was taking the piss ie: hose/bucket. Floods aside I’d be focussed on issues closer to home as he did during the campaign. But that’s me.

While I remember: I had a great laugh listening to a pontificating leftie on the radio saying the fires were a ‘state issue’. Absolutely brilliant :tearsofjoy:.

And Diplomacy? Huh? Weird comment.

And who cares what Pair of Tits says.
Bloke is a weirdo doing himself out of a job.
I’m as conservative as a pimp.
But sing Kumbaya and I’ll likely lean in.

Have a great social justice fighting day! :-).
 

Flanagun

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OK. If you’re so good at calling out bullshit than that’s the last post we’ve seen defending Herb and our extremely average Number 7, yeah?

PS: I wasn’t criticising Albo’s handling at all.
I was taking the piss ie: hose/bucket. Floods aside I’d be focussed on issues closer to home as he did during the campaign. But that’s me.

While I remember: I had a great laugh listening to a pontificating leftie on the radio saying the fires were a ‘state issue’. Absolutely brilliant :tearsofjoy:.

And Diplomacy? Huh? Weird comment.

And who cares what Pair of Tits says.
Bloke is a weirdo doing himself out of a job.
I’m as conservative as a pimp.
But sing Kumbaya and I’ll likely lean in.

Have a great social justice fighting day! :-).
Talk about taking up a whole lot of characters to say a whole lot of nothing.

And why would I stop spruiking Herb? In case you haven't noticed, his form is off the chain this year. I was right about him all along and people still can't admit it....lol
 
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Hacky McAxe

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OK. If you’re so good at calling out bullshit than that’s the last post we’ve seen defending Herb and our extremely average Number 7, yeah?

PS: I wasn’t criticising Albo’s handling at all.
I was taking the piss ie: hose/bucket. Floods aside I’d be focussed on issues closer to home as he did during the campaign. But that’s me.

While I remember: I had a great laugh listening to a pontificating leftie on the radio saying the fires were a ‘state issue’. Absolutely brilliant :tearsofjoy:.

And Diplomacy? Huh? Weird comment.

And who cares what Pair of Tits says.
Bloke is a weirdo doing himself out of a job.
I’m as conservative as a pimp.
But sing Kumbaya and I’ll likely lean in.

Have a great social justice fighting day! :-).
Talk about taking up a whole lot of characters to say a whole lot of nothing.

And why would I stop spruiking Herb? In case you haven't noticed, his form is off the chain this year. I was right about him all along and people still can't addmit it....lol
You two are really... flooding this thread

Sorry. Continue.
 

DinkumDog

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A whole lot of nothing: people you raised. OK…

Herb: Canberra were garbage against an average Steelers outfit on Sunday. But OK, let’s see how he goes in Newcastle. Origin here we come! :tearsofjoy:.

I’ll let you go and organise the next harbour tunnel blockade. It’s been fun though, thanks :-).
 

Flanagun

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A whole lot of nothing: people you raised. OK…

Herb: Canberra were garbage against an average Steelers outfit on Sunday. But OK, let’s see how he goes in Newcastle. Origin here we come! :tearsofjoy:.

I’ll let you go and organise the next harbour tunnel blockade. It’s been fun though, thanks :-).
They didn't lose because of Herb, they lost because Wighton was arse.

The only thing I blockade is Dink BS :grinning:
 
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