It is actually impossible for Putin to win this war. His best case scenario is he completely annexes Ukraine if they do surrender (which i dont see happening). If he managed that, it would not be recognised by most of the world, and sanctions from everywhere would remain. The longer he holds Ukraine the poorer Russia would become. So annexing Ukraine would actually hurt Russia more. There is no scenario i can see where Putin "wins"
I think this is a very fair summation tbh.
Let's say he completely annexes Ukraine or even that land bridge that they've got now. How would they hold it? At what cost?
You speak about the sanctions, which is a really good point as I don't see the Western world changing too much in regard to that, especially with European countries moving away from their dependance on Russia for gas. So, financially I don't know how they'd recover or continue tbh?
But, there's also the military side of things. At present, they're 'holding' that land bridge but at what cost? They're pumping in how many mobilised soldiers just to keep the line and are also getting attacked well within their own 'Russian controlled' territory by partisans or HIMARS. How can they continue to hold that? Especially when Ukraine won't stop.
The forces it'll take in the future to maintain this hold on Ukraine are astronomical. How will they be able to do it?
Of course, Ukraine relies heavily on international support so if that wanes they may have a greater ability to strike back at Ukraine. The longer this goes on, potentially the less the world will help them?
OK. Quite possible. But, Ukraine will never stop. There's no way. So, they'll need to keep a force there forever to stop attacks etc. so I just don't know how that's positive for them? No where in the currently control annexed region is Putin safe. No where.
So, I agree tbh. I don't see any scenario where Putin "wins". He tried to huff and puff but now ...