As I see it, Russia couldn't gain full control of Ukraine due to western countries supplying Ukraine and Russia's resources somewhat depleting. So Russia were forced to retreat.
Now Russia has switched tactics to basically terror. They are bombing civilian targets to cause fear, but their main objective is to cause so much damage to the energy grid that Ukrainians will freeze during winter. All of this causing civil unrest and a potential eventual surrender by Ukraine.
Do I think Ukraine would have held off Russia without Western support? No
Do I think Russia could defeat Ukraine through conventional warfare while they are receiving support? Maybe. But it would be a long drawn out war
Whether Russia used their main forces or not, it seems likely that they are at least lacking resources. They activated emergency powers a while back (full mobilisation) and stated that they would use their full might to defend the captured territories. Since then they have retreated and lost parts of those territories. They are also buying weapons from other countries. Seems like they probably don't have enough resources right now.
Long game = stalemate and probably Russia holding onto that occupied territory they are already holding but constantly sending bombs and disruptors/infiltrators/Russian thugs etc into Ukraine to continuously unsettle a peaceful future.
Putin is a narcissistic bastard who will just keep sendng missiles over as he pleases. How can Ukraine rebuild if he keeps intermittently bombing their repaired infrastructure?
Can't see any hope of peace for Ukraine unless Nato occupy the country to protect it and rattle their sabres ...or some brave soul assassinates Putin and the next sly meglomaniac ex KGB or general if they are just as aggressive and want to invade.
In the wash up unless something else, or some one else intervenes, probably Ukraine has lost that land bridge to Crimea via Donbass etc as detailed on that map above.
Of course we all hope the soveign state of Ukraine can be reinstated but Putin doesn't care about International law or lives lost: only loss of face and power, so he won't negotiate a treaty unless he keeps that territory (probably).
The situation will become clearer after Winter when there will be terrible suffering for the Ukrainian people in parts of the country if they can't restore power and water
but they are a very resilient people as we know from past war history.
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