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Nasheed here,
I have been processing some information and statistics on our players tonight, and like many of you (as in, no surprise) I have concluded our issues are very centralised on having a halfback deficiency issue.
I have gone back over our games tonight and recorded the below season statistics on Kyle Flanagan, the incumbent:
What can be seen here, both statistically and anecdotally, is that Kyle poses little threat with the ball in hand.
Once again, many observers and analysts, such as myself, Fox NRL team, and commentators,, and this forum have mentioned this on occassions many times.
Defenders of Kyle cite our mounting casualty ward and the perceived lack of forwards is to largely blame for the sluggishness of our attack, and not Kyle. But, this is largely mythological and not real.
Firstly, whilst not a forward, Jacob Kiraz, or 'The Kebab' as he is affectionately known here, is the NRL leading run maker as of time of writing. Jacob, like many lebs, full clicks it and goes psycho when he runs, full of aggression and energy, and is averaging 216 metres a game, with 865 total runs.
To show how impressive that stat is, John Hopoate, once made backpage in news after cracking 300 runs a game. A record of the time. For Kebab to AVERAGE just 75 m short of that mark is flo-nominal.
So basically, we get the strongest start from tackle one in the entire NRL. 20% of our 5 tackle set. We win.
Now the forwards:
We are right in the middle of the road for runs gained during play. We only average 60 cm less than the 5th pack (Storms) whereby we have made 6600 metres and they are 6900. Many teams are similar between 5-13 here.
So we have a decent output from the forwards but have only produced 12 tries, less than the Knights. When you deduct the fact that many of these tries have been against the run of play, or from some dummy half shebang, and that we were legit gifted a win from Melbourne, you can see we have a serious halves problem as almost no tries have been created from the half position.
My stats above shows that NO TRY CAME THROUGH KYLE.
We are 20% through our season and our halfback has not been the creator of one of our tries. This is a position solely responsible for laying the groundwork to try scoring.
So whats his issue?
As Tupac once said, 'even tha genius asks questions'.
So I'll ask questions.
Defence? Nope. He is perhaps the strongest defending 7 in the game weirdly. His stats support that. He crunches bones. Hokko was the same. But I would argue that the ability to defend is neither here or there for a halfback. James Maloney and Darren Lockyer, legendary halves of the last ten years, could not tackle at all. Lockyer even got Tonie Carroll to make his tackles for him.
Attack?
When he gets the ball, he runs sideways, he does not take the line on, his creativity is a inside pass to a flat footed forward. Defences slide with him like a snake prepping for prey. They know he wont run, the best will be a slick pass. And to be honest, even if he does try and run, physically I dont think he poses a threat. He is small, but not quick unlike Wakeham, Nasheed, Sullivan etc and has no step or physical strength. Let him try and run and someone with a career in the NRL will make the tackle on him (unless Maloney makes a return of course LOL LOL LOL).
Oh yeah, he also doesnt kick far or short, no repeat sets at all this year, bar once.
With no physical prowess, or ability to set a defence in two minds, or to speed up the play, this condemns the attack to redundancy near the line, of which we have proven we can easily do even with our missing forwards.
So, I have proven numerically and anecdotally, Kyle and the halfback is the greatest issue we face. So who can replace him to spark us?
As Tupac also told us “Do everything you can to make it around the system, over the system, or out the system.”
So who can we flip d system with?
Kyle Oloapu:
Many believe he is anointed the replacement. He came to us, in our squad on the back of a transfer fee that is reported as 500k, but is more likely less than half that,
but it still something.
Kyle is the national under 19s captain. He runs strong, he passes, he gots footwork and he is built like black oak.
However, I have my doubts. And I'm not just talking about the potential he fall into a bad crowd, postcode wars or 21 Distrikt like some have been worried about.
Purely on field traits.
He runs hard, yes, but I feel this a trait more in line with a running 5/8. A wighton type, A doueihi, even a Burton or even a young Josh Reynolds. When I compare him to the great half backs of the past, I dont see it yet. Langer, Stuart, Townsend, Cleary, DCE, Johns. These guys were perfectionists, organisers and creators.
At best we might get him to be a big version of a Jarule Hughes or Moses. A runner first, but I think this will take time and he should develop in NSW cup first for a while. He may never gets there as he gains physical strength. Have we ever seen a string, hard running Tongan be a top notch creative 7? Either way, we will see. But it wont be next year.
Luke Keary:
Has the basic traits of an organisational half, seems an odd man out in an elite system at the Roosters, and could be bought for a short term stint to assist Karl. Only issue is he is skitzy from head knocks some think, but I do think this is myth and not reality. By this I mean, On TK, people said stuff like this:
Feb 15, 2023
Keary concussed again at training . . . He'd get concussion putting a hat on that bloke
@D0GMATIC
Buts,
On critical analysis, the reality was:
'Sydney Roosters captain James Tedesco insists Luke Keary is in no doubt to start the NRL season, with his latest jaw injury not arousing any fresh concussion concerns.'
www.canberratimes.com.au
There are few instances of this.
A 2 year deal at 800k a pop and even if he gives us half of that, we are good.
Jack Welsby:
A superstar in the making, 8 NRL clubs want him. Kind of like a Hughes type, can play anywhere in the spine. However, he is signed long term to St Helens, is young and untested, so not a super option in my book.
George Williams:
Could do worse, he is a crafty halfback in the Allan Langer mould. Haters say 'He will just get homesick for England again' but critical analysis does not bear the same concern.
The poor **** had a baby being born during Covid, the woman he is tapping had to be by her family, it is completely reasonable in this situation, where family cannot visit, to make this move.
After the baby was popped, he wanted back to the NRL. Homesickness isnt the concern, what IS the concern is a very poor 2022 campaign. But I wouldnt be against this, he will also cost around 800k at least and the Warrington owner is rich and doesnt want him to leave.
Jonny Lomax:
Best half in England. Might be good to have a crack in the twilight of his career to say he did it. Will be 33 but if this is a short gig, why not?
Lewis Dodd:
Another halfback prodigy in England, on the up, very young and untested, but has signaled his intention of bein in the NRL. Would probably cost a bit less than Willo and Lomax, so not the worst punt? However, it is a punt, which is what we need to avoid.
Aiden Sezer:
2 years ago I rubbished this. He isnt that good, he still isnt. He did jack all in 2019 whilst Wighton carried the attack (mirrors our situation in a way) BUT he is a dogg junior, wont cost alot, and if you just want a guy to do the ABCs right and organise short term, he is two steos above Flanno and could hold fort, but we aint winning the premiership. So depends on uor desperation.
Josh Reynold:
He is already here, but is injury prone and more a Tyson Gamble energy spark than thinking organiser. Hasn't strung a season together since he was with us last time. Might just be a PR stunt. Dont think we can take him.
Adam Douehi:
Lebanese, so a cultural fit, desperate to play for us by all accounts and got mad skills. However, he will cost too much. He wants 700k. We cant pay that on the way he plays.
Albert Kelly:
A very cheap, available, band aid option. Similar to Sezer but more of a runner. Maybe not a 2024 option, but a '23 option? Just maybe, if a spot becomes available.
Khaleb Rajab:
He is in our system and on the up. A great world cup for Lebanon. But is he ready to be thrown in? The most likely short term promotion if Kyle doesnt turn it around and we dont ship in a replacement by origin.
Luke Brooks:
A full sick unit when he is on, just world class, but he isn't always on, would cost a reasonable amount of Euro (although may not break the bank) but can go missing at times. Probably the ultimate high risk high reward bet. But he hasn't got winning instilled in him and his heart is with the pies so I would advise against.
Have I missed anyone?
Lets sit around and discuss. Nasheed.
I have been processing some information and statistics on our players tonight, and like many of you (as in, no surprise) I have concluded our issues are very centralised on having a halfback deficiency issue.
I have gone back over our games tonight and recorded the below season statistics on Kyle Flanagan, the incumbent:
| Games | 4 |
| Tries | 0 |
| Try Assists | 0 |
| Linebreak Assists | 1 |
| Offloads | 3 |
| Average Run Metres | 35m |
| Average Kick Metres | 76m |
| Forced Dropouts | 1 |
| Average Tackles | 24 |
What can be seen here, both statistically and anecdotally, is that Kyle poses little threat with the ball in hand.
Once again, many observers and analysts, such as myself, Fox NRL team, and commentators,, and this forum have mentioned this on occassions many times.
Defenders of Kyle cite our mounting casualty ward and the perceived lack of forwards is to largely blame for the sluggishness of our attack, and not Kyle. But, this is largely mythological and not real.
Firstly, whilst not a forward, Jacob Kiraz, or 'The Kebab' as he is affectionately known here, is the NRL leading run maker as of time of writing. Jacob, like many lebs, full clicks it and goes psycho when he runs, full of aggression and energy, and is averaging 216 metres a game, with 865 total runs.
To show how impressive that stat is, John Hopoate, once made backpage in news after cracking 300 runs a game. A record of the time. For Kebab to AVERAGE just 75 m short of that mark is flo-nominal.
So basically, we get the strongest start from tackle one in the entire NRL. 20% of our 5 tackle set. We win.
Now the forwards:
We are right in the middle of the road for runs gained during play. We only average 60 cm less than the 5th pack (Storms) whereby we have made 6600 metres and they are 6900. Many teams are similar between 5-13 here.
So we have a decent output from the forwards but have only produced 12 tries, less than the Knights. When you deduct the fact that many of these tries have been against the run of play, or from some dummy half shebang, and that we were legit gifted a win from Melbourne, you can see we have a serious halves problem as almost no tries have been created from the half position.
My stats above shows that NO TRY CAME THROUGH KYLE.
We are 20% through our season and our halfback has not been the creator of one of our tries. This is a position solely responsible for laying the groundwork to try scoring.
So whats his issue?
As Tupac once said, 'even tha genius asks questions'.
So I'll ask questions.
Defence? Nope. He is perhaps the strongest defending 7 in the game weirdly. His stats support that. He crunches bones. Hokko was the same. But I would argue that the ability to defend is neither here or there for a halfback. James Maloney and Darren Lockyer, legendary halves of the last ten years, could not tackle at all. Lockyer even got Tonie Carroll to make his tackles for him.
Attack?
When he gets the ball, he runs sideways, he does not take the line on, his creativity is a inside pass to a flat footed forward. Defences slide with him like a snake prepping for prey. They know he wont run, the best will be a slick pass. And to be honest, even if he does try and run, physically I dont think he poses a threat. He is small, but not quick unlike Wakeham, Nasheed, Sullivan etc and has no step or physical strength. Let him try and run and someone with a career in the NRL will make the tackle on him (unless Maloney makes a return of course LOL LOL LOL).
Oh yeah, he also doesnt kick far or short, no repeat sets at all this year, bar once.
With no physical prowess, or ability to set a defence in two minds, or to speed up the play, this condemns the attack to redundancy near the line, of which we have proven we can easily do even with our missing forwards.
So, I have proven numerically and anecdotally, Kyle and the halfback is the greatest issue we face. So who can replace him to spark us?
As Tupac also told us “Do everything you can to make it around the system, over the system, or out the system.”
So who can we flip d system with?
Kyle Oloapu:
Many believe he is anointed the replacement. He came to us, in our squad on the back of a transfer fee that is reported as 500k, but is more likely less than half that,
but it still something.
Kyle is the national under 19s captain. He runs strong, he passes, he gots footwork and he is built like black oak.
However, I have my doubts. And I'm not just talking about the potential he fall into a bad crowd, postcode wars or 21 Distrikt like some have been worried about.
Purely on field traits.
He runs hard, yes, but I feel this a trait more in line with a running 5/8. A wighton type, A doueihi, even a Burton or even a young Josh Reynolds. When I compare him to the great half backs of the past, I dont see it yet. Langer, Stuart, Townsend, Cleary, DCE, Johns. These guys were perfectionists, organisers and creators.
At best we might get him to be a big version of a Jarule Hughes or Moses. A runner first, but I think this will take time and he should develop in NSW cup first for a while. He may never gets there as he gains physical strength. Have we ever seen a string, hard running Tongan be a top notch creative 7? Either way, we will see. But it wont be next year.
Luke Keary:
Has the basic traits of an organisational half, seems an odd man out in an elite system at the Roosters, and could be bought for a short term stint to assist Karl. Only issue is he is skitzy from head knocks some think, but I do think this is myth and not reality. By this I mean, On TK, people said stuff like this:
Feb 15, 2023
Keary concussed again at training . . . He'd get concussion putting a hat on that bloke
@D0GMATIC
Buts,
On critical analysis, the reality was:
'Sydney Roosters captain James Tedesco insists Luke Keary is in no doubt to start the NRL season, with his latest jaw injury not arousing any fresh concussion concerns.'
No concussion fears with Keary set for round one return
Sydney Roosters captain James Tedesco insists Luke Keary is in no doubt to start the NRL season, with...
There are few instances of this.
A 2 year deal at 800k a pop and even if he gives us half of that, we are good.
Jack Welsby:
A superstar in the making, 8 NRL clubs want him. Kind of like a Hughes type, can play anywhere in the spine. However, he is signed long term to St Helens, is young and untested, so not a super option in my book.
George Williams:
Could do worse, he is a crafty halfback in the Allan Langer mould. Haters say 'He will just get homesick for England again' but critical analysis does not bear the same concern.
The poor **** had a baby being born during Covid, the woman he is tapping had to be by her family, it is completely reasonable in this situation, where family cannot visit, to make this move.
After the baby was popped, he wanted back to the NRL. Homesickness isnt the concern, what IS the concern is a very poor 2022 campaign. But I wouldnt be against this, he will also cost around 800k at least and the Warrington owner is rich and doesnt want him to leave.
Jonny Lomax:
Best half in England. Might be good to have a crack in the twilight of his career to say he did it. Will be 33 but if this is a short gig, why not?
Lewis Dodd:
Another halfback prodigy in England, on the up, very young and untested, but has signaled his intention of bein in the NRL. Would probably cost a bit less than Willo and Lomax, so not the worst punt? However, it is a punt, which is what we need to avoid.
Aiden Sezer:
2 years ago I rubbished this. He isnt that good, he still isnt. He did jack all in 2019 whilst Wighton carried the attack (mirrors our situation in a way) BUT he is a dogg junior, wont cost alot, and if you just want a guy to do the ABCs right and organise short term, he is two steos above Flanno and could hold fort, but we aint winning the premiership. So depends on uor desperation.
Josh Reynold:
He is already here, but is injury prone and more a Tyson Gamble energy spark than thinking organiser. Hasn't strung a season together since he was with us last time. Might just be a PR stunt. Dont think we can take him.
Adam Douehi:
Lebanese, so a cultural fit, desperate to play for us by all accounts and got mad skills. However, he will cost too much. He wants 700k. We cant pay that on the way he plays.
Albert Kelly:
A very cheap, available, band aid option. Similar to Sezer but more of a runner. Maybe not a 2024 option, but a '23 option? Just maybe, if a spot becomes available.
Khaleb Rajab:
He is in our system and on the up. A great world cup for Lebanon. But is he ready to be thrown in? The most likely short term promotion if Kyle doesnt turn it around and we dont ship in a replacement by origin.
Luke Brooks:
A full sick unit when he is on, just world class, but he isn't always on, would cost a reasonable amount of Euro (although may not break the bank) but can go missing at times. Probably the ultimate high risk high reward bet. But he hasn't got winning instilled in him and his heart is with the pies so I would advise against.
Have I missed anyone?
Lets sit around and discuss. Nasheed.
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