Sutton's penalty ratio with us is 0.88, that means for every 100 penalties he gives our opposition in the games he has reffed us, he gives us 88. Not awful right? Could be worse?
His penalty ratio with souffs is 1.3. This is the highest ratio by an active ref in favour of a team.
What the stat hides is the quality of the penalties. Do they come near the end of a tackle count? Will Souffs get some of these on Friday? Of the penalties we get, how many will be on the first tackle, or with seconds left on the clock, or when the game is basically decided? I guess we'll have to see.
There's loads more ways now than just penalties to piggyback teams.
- Positioning of the defensive line. One team is constantly back 12 or 13m while their opponent is only getting back to 10m (via refs discretion). 2-3m gives a prop a great chance to add momentum which in turn can build fatigue stoping them.
- Differing interpretation of how quickly a tackler should be able to hold the attacking player down. Setting your line is less of an issue with a few extra seconds and it's easier to avoid off side penalties and assess the potential options Ava to the attacking team and adjust defensively.
- A lot of the time you'll hear refs screaming at one team to "hold" in defence, or basically when they can move forward to make a tackle. Often one team is getting yelled at to hold until the dh gets the pass away and the other team is allowed to take off as soon as the tackled player plants the ball. And that's often combined with the 10m vs 13m defensive line difference.
The combination of these three rules alone can make it look like one team is playing the ball super quickly. The team getting the best treatment are going to dominate post contact metres and generate fatigue more easily in their opponents. But these three are the main ones I look for when I switch on a non dogs game to judge who I think will get all the calls and it's usually apparent within a couple of minutes if one team is on a 'must not win list'
But over time most clear cut rules have been altered to incorporate grey areas. The refs can take the same exact infringement committed by both teams and penalize it differently on an increasing range of things.
I know there's plenty who think those suspicious of refs for any reason are paranoid. And I wish I could get back to the days before I suspected that refs are going into games with instructions to push for certain margins etc for the NRL's gambling partner. I actually used to enjoy every game I could find time to watch. Now I'm not even too upset if I don't get to see our own games. Just feels like shit seeing us reffed out of it, or even teams I give zero shits about get screwed by refs