Russia vs Ukraine

[Hacky McAxe]

While I got you...

I've always wondered what makes a world war a world war?

Is there like a minimum amount of countries involved, or the amount of wars going on at the same time?

It's not that hard to make a world war. There must be multiple nations, and the conflict must take place across multiple countries. But it can also be a world war if it only takes place across two countries if those countries are superpowers. So US vs Russia would be a world war if fighting took place in both countries, or other countries if its multiple countries.

 

[alchemist]

Probably not legit. Montenegro and Serbia are both big supporters on Ukraine. Montenegro are also taking in many Ukrainian refugees, and Serbia are supplying ammunition to Ukraine.

Not really... Montenegro's political elite and more nationalistic segments of the population are pro-Western and pro-Ukraine but the more Serbian orientated Montenegrins are pro-Russian... The Serbian political elite are opportunistic and are trying to play off both the EU and Russia and hence, for example, Serbia providing weapons to Ukraine but signing an advantageous gas deal with Russia... But about 80% of Serbia's population is pro-Russian

 

[alchemist]

Apparently British intelligence said that the attempted coup was real, but the Kremlin threatened the families of Wagner leaders, which is apparently the real reason Wagner pulled out.

Most of Wagner's leaders weren't involved

 

[alchemist]

What will the Wagner group do with power?

Wagner are in Belarus and Prigozhin was in St Petersburg during the recent Russia-Africa summit... And things seem to be kicking off in Africa, so I would imagine Wagner still has a role to play

 

[alchemist]

It feels that way unfortunately.

There's a group of countries in Africa that are all ruled by military after they carried out coups. There was one country left in that area (Niger) that was democratically ruled. About a week ago that changed when they military carried out a coup. The other countries that are military held are being supported by Russia and Wagner.

There's rumours that Russia convinced the military to overthrow the government so Russia could have control of a vital area in Africa. The area has a decent amount of resources including diamonds and Uranium. But it's also strategic if WW3 starts.

Russia sits on an estimated $75 trillion worth of natural resources which is considerably more than any other nation... And they don't have a history of colonising Africa... Meanwhile, a third(?) of Niger's uranium goes to France while 75%(?) of Nigeriens don't have electricity

Interestingly, though, there were/are plans for gas(?) pipelines from Nigeria to Algeria through Niger intended for Europe which this coup in Niger interrupts

 

[alchemist]

This shit won't end wont it, we are headed for WW3 aren't we?

It all depends on whether the US and Russia can come to an agreement... But the Americans won't because a compromise would be seen as a defeat in Washington

 

[Fezza]

It feels that way unfortunately.

There's a group of countries in Africa that are all ruled by military after they carried out coups. There was one country left in that area (Niger) that was democratically ruled. About a week ago that changed when they military carried out a coup. The other countries that are military held are being supported by Russia and Wagner.

There's rumours that Russia convinced the military to overthrow the government so Russia could have control of a vital area in Africa. The area has a decent amount of resources including diamonds and Uranium. But it's also strategic if WW3 starts.

Hey mate,
It's hard to find any news or updates these days.
It's like Australia media have forgotten all about it.
We use to get updates on territory won and lost and cities that have been targeted or taken over by Russia and won back and the like.

Have you got any idea how much territory Russia has control of these days.

 

[Hacky McAxe]

Hey mate,
It's hard to find any news or updates these days.
It's like Australia media have forgotten all about it.
We use to get updates on territory won and lost and cities that have been targeted or taken over by Russia and won back and the like.

Have you got any idea how much territory Russia has control of these days.

Not much has changed lately. Russia's advancement stopped about 9 months ago. Since then both forces have been fighting over Bakhmut. Russia currently controls it but Ukraine is attempting to take it back. Ukraine started a counter offensive about 2 months ago which is still ongoing, but not going strong. Russia controls about 1/5th of Ukriane, but not much has changed in the last 9 months.

Fighting is still going on but they're basically equally matched. Ukriane has been carrying out smaller hits though. It recently damaged the main bridge Russia is using to supply Crimea. Russia could send in their full forces and turn the tide of the war, but they're holding back their main army, likely for the inevitable WW3 kick off.

The main issue now is that Russia and Ukraine had a deal to allow Ukrainian grain to leave Ukraine. That grain was being used to feed poor countries. That deal ended and Russia has stated that any ship trying to take grain out of Ukraine will be seen as the enemy, and destroyed. Russia have also started bombing Ukrainian grain storage. Unfortunately this is going to lead to a global food shortage, especially for poor countries.

 

[Hacky McAxe]

Russia sits on an estimated $75 trillion worth of natural resources which is considerably more than any other nation... And they don't have a history of colonising Africa... Meanwhile, a third(?) of Niger's uranium goes to France while 75%(?) of Nigeriens don't have electricity

Interestingly, though, there were/are plans for gas(?) pipelines from Nigeria to Algeria through Niger intended for Europe which this coup in Niger interrupts

Apparently the driver behind the military takeover was that the President was planning to fire his military leaders. But as soon as they took over, they kicked out the French and cut off all trade. Many of the pro-miltary supporters came out waving Russia flags, as they did when the other countries fell to military rule.

Plus Russia has been in Africa for a long time. Wagner's work in Russia for the Russia government has been no secret.

Probably won't matter though. Without the support, the Jihadis will run rampant through the area unless Russia steps in.

I do completely agree that there's an issue though. Niger has one of the highest poverty rates, while also being the 7th highest resource of Uranium. It's no surprise that half the country supports the coupe.

 

[Fezza]

Not much has changed lately. Russia's advancement stopped about 9 months ago. Since then both forces have been fighting over Bakhmut. Russia currently controls it but Ukraine is attempting to take it back. Ukraine started a counter offensive about 2 months ago which is still ongoing, but not going strong. Russia controls about 1/5th of Ukriane, but not much has changed in the last 9 months.

Fighting is still going on but they're basically equally matched. Ukriane has been carrying out smaller hits though. It recently damaged the main bridge Russia is using to supply Crimea. Russia could send in their full forces and turn the tide of the war, but they're holding back their main army, likely for the inevitable WW3 kick off.

The main issue now is that Russia and Ukraine had a deal to allow Ukrainian grain to leave Ukraine. That grain was being used to feed poor countries. That deal ended and Russia has stated that any ship trying to take grain out of Ukraine will be seen as the enemy, and destroyed. Russia have also started bombing Ukrainian grain storage. Unfortunately this is going to lead to a global food shortage, especially for poor countries.

Do you think ww3 is likely?

 

[Hacky McAxe]

Do you think ww3 is likely?

Personally, nah. But I think Russia thinks its likely.

For WW3 to actually kick off, Russia would need the support of China and India. Both refuse to stand against Russia, but they won't exactly ally with them either.

 

[Doogie]

Russia sits on an estimated $75 trillion worth of natural resources which is considerably more than any other nation... And they don't have a history of colonising Africa... Meanwhile, a third(?) of Niger's uranium goes to France while 75%(?) of Nigeriens don't have electricity

Interestingly, though, there were/are plans for gas(?) pipelines from Nigeria to Algeria through Niger intended for Europe which this coup in Niger interrupts

Not colonising no. But (and this is prior to the Niger insurrection) so you can put a big green blob to the east of Mali.

As for colonising - during the 19th century couldn't afford to and from the 20th century onwards too busy with transitioning to communism. So it wasn't about intent, it was capability. Now however...

 

[alchemist]

Apparently the driver behind the military takeover was that the President was planning to fire his military leaders. But as soon as they took over, they kicked out the French and cut off all trade. Many of the pro-miltary supporters came out waving Russia flags, as they did when the other countries fell to military rule.

Plus Russia has been in Africa for a long time. Wagner's work in Russia for the Russia government has been no secret.

Probably won't matter though. Without the support, the Jihadis will run rampant through the area unless Russia steps in.

I do completely agree that there's an issue though. Niger has one of the highest poverty rates, while also being the 7th highest resource of Uranium. It's no surprise that half the country supports the coupe.

People need to understand that Putin and Russia are actually quite popular in the global south being seen as a victim of and fighting against the collective Western elite and Russia would inherit considerable good will in Africa from the aid that the USSR used to provide... So... Russian flags may just be Nigeriens and co. supporting Russia rather than indicative of Russian connivance

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1685001766994079744

Russia has condemned the coup, stated that they won't intervene (because they can't) but will oppose any foreign like that proposed by Nigeria

A bit of a tinderbox there though as Mali and Burkina Faso support Niger but Nigeria and other ECOWAS nations oppose the coup and France and the US seem prepared to assist any foreign intervention

 

[alchemist]

Not colonising no. But (and this is prior to the Niger insurrection) so you can put a big green blob to the east of Mali.
View attachment 78384
As for colonising - during the 19th century couldn't afford to and from the 20th century onwards too busy with transitioning to communism. So it wasn't about intent, it was capability. Now however...

Yes and no... Colonisation as a whole - at least insofar as territorial expansion - is something every imperial power is guilty of and the Russian Empire very much so and hence, their control of everything from Germany to Canada in the 19th Century... Also explains why Russia continues to have let's say issues along their borders with the likes of Poland, Western Ukraine, the Caucasus etc. because of the ongoing bitterness from said expansionism

The Russian Empire also had limitations financially and logistically in the 19th Century and hence, for example, selling Alaska to the US for like $7 million

With regard to Africa, I do recall the Russian Empire having good relations with Ethiopia in relation to their fight against colonialism against Italy(?) and the fact that the majority of Ethiopians are Orthodox Christians probably endeared them to the Tsar

The USSR is a different story... They didn't see themselves as an empire in the traditional sense but rather the head of a movement, an ideology, to free people from imperialist exploitation and that had a particular draw in Africa... For example, Patrice Lumumba was the first PM of Congo who was assassinated with the connivance of the Belgians and CIA was lionised in the USSR

As for electoral interference, that is something else and all major powers do it --> see the abovementioned Mr Lumumba

 

[alchemist]

Not much has changed lately. Russia's advancement stopped about 9 months ago. Since then both forces have been fighting over Bakhmut. Russia currently controls it but Ukraine is attempting to take it back. Ukraine started a counter offensive about 2 months ago which is still ongoing, but not going strong. Russia controls about 1/5th of Ukriane, but not much has changed in the last 9 months.

Fighting is still going on but they're basically equally matched. Ukriane has been carrying out smaller hits though. It recently damaged the main bridge Russia is using to supply Crimea. Russia could send in their full forces and turn the tide of the war, but they're holding back their main army, likely for the inevitable WW3 kick off.

The main issue now is that Russia and Ukraine had a deal to allow Ukrainian grain to leave Ukraine. That grain was being used to feed poor countries. That deal ended and Russia has stated that any ship trying to take grain out of Ukraine will be seen as the enemy, and destroyed. Russia have also started bombing Ukrainian grain storage. Unfortunately this is going to lead to a global food shortage, especially for poor countries.

It's a war of attrition and so, not about territorial gains yet... The Russians are trying to destroy as many Ukrainian soldiers and military equipment as possible until the Ukrainians can no longer hold the 800-1,000 km line of contact... And the Russians believe they are being successful in that

As for being evenly matched, not really... Like you said, the Russians are holding back a lot of their forces as a contingency for a greater war against NATO... and Putin is really trying to keep the effects of the war as far away as possible from everyday life in Russia... the Russians also have air superiority, naval power in the Black Sea and far more stand off missiles... As for the Kerch Bridge, the recent attack damaged one of the road lanes but for military purposes, it's the rail bridge which is important

As for the grain deal, the Russians maintain that: (1) they were complying with the deal but the West were not (eg. not reconnecting the Russian bank for agriculture to SWIFT); (2) the Ukrainians were using the deal to smuggle in weapons including potentially drones to attack Sevastopol and the Kerch Bridge; (3) the majority of Ukrainian grain was not going to poor countries but rather to the EU countries like Spain; (4) Russia is destroying all the Ukrainian port facilities in Odessa and on the Danube and so, the grain deal is dead; and (5) Russia has offered to provide grain free of charge to the poorest countries and forgiven $20+ billion in African debt

 

[Doogie]

Yes and no... Colonisation as a whole - at least insofar as territorial expansion - is something every imperial power is guilty of and the Russian Empire very much so and hence, their control of everything from Germany to Canada in the 19th Century... Also explains why Russia continues to have let's say issues along their borders with the likes of Poland, Western Ukraine, the Caucasus etc. because of the ongoing bitterness from said expansionism

The Russian Empire also had limitations financially and logistically in the 19th Century and hence, for example, selling Alaska to the US for like $7 million

With regard to Africa, I do recall the Russian Empire having good relations with Ethiopia in relation to their fight against colonialism against Italy(?) and the fact that the majority of Ethiopians are Orthodox Christians probably endeared them to the Tsar

The USSR is a different story... They didn't see themselves as an empire in the traditional sense but rather the head of a movement, an ideology, to free people from imperialist exploitation and that had a particular draw in Africa... For example, Patrice Lumumba was the first PM of Congo who was assassinated with the connivance of the Belgians and CIA was lionised in the USSR

As for electoral interference, that is something else and all major powers do it --> see the abovementioned Mr Lumumba

Your take on Lumumba is a bit skewed. 1960 - middle of the cold war and like most independence movements - one tribe went to the west and one to the east. And more importantly, the Katanga had Belgian support.

You come at these things from an educated perspective that I appreciate but if we're going to consistently roll out actions from 50+ years ago as justification for what is done today, you're taking the politicians excuse route rather than the peoples view. Which, unless I'm sorely mistaken, is the complete antithesis of communism. If you want to go down that path, shall we put the Holodomor on the table? Just that alone should be a good enough reason for the Ukrainians to tell Russia to fck off if your yardstick is to be used.

The ukrainian people wanted better connections to Europe. They voted in a leader who promised that and he went the opposite route. That started Maidan. And from there, Russia has militarily decided to inflict pain on the Ukraine people. No matter how you cut this, the Ukraine people made a choice. Russia didn't like that choice and started to kill Ukrainians. And if this was the choice of the Russian people, fair play, but Putin is President forever. Hard to take a totalitarian regime seriously in terms of doing good for its own people. Its not like we're talking Brunei for example.

And to use your own words, Russia has trillions in natural resources. The west does not. So why is Russia interfering with African politics? Obviously not for resources. To stop the wests access to those resources. And the big difference is if the west accesses those resources, there is chance the quality of life for the average Niger improves. And before you respond, I agree, its only a chance. Much more of a chance than if the Russians access those resources. Why? They don't need them. Its all about creating new oligarchs loyal to Putin and screwing with the West.

And what makes this particularly disgraceful is the Sahel is likely to be one of the most impacted parts of the world with climate change. Desertification is already causing chaos. Stability is required. Niger was one of the most stable countries in the Sahel and had the greatest chance of getting through the next 20-30 years with some semblance of a country. Not now - thanks to money pocketing and geo politicking. And it will be the average Niger that will suffer. Again - how does this play into the principles of communism?

 

[Doogie]

It's a war of attrition and so, not about territorial gains yet... The Russians are trying to destroy as many Ukrainian soldiers and military equipment as possible until the Ukrainians can no longer hold the 800-1,000 km line of contact... And the Russians believe they are being successful in that

As for being evenly matched, not really... Like you said, the Russians are holding back a lot of their forces as a contingency for a greater war against NATO... and Putin is really trying to keep the effects of the war as far away as possible from everyday life in Russia... the Russians also have air superiority, naval power in the Black Sea and far more stand off missiles... As for the Kerch Bridge, the recent attack damaged one of the road lanes but for military purposes, it's the rail bridge which is important

As for the grain deal, the Russians maintain that: (1) they were complying with the deal but the West were not (eg. not reconnecting the Russian bank for agriculture to SWIFT); (2) the Ukrainians were using the deal to smuggle in weapons including potentially drones to attack Sevastopol and the Kerch Bridge; (3) the majority of Ukrainian grain was not going to poor countries but rather to the EU countries like Spain; (4) Russia is destroying all the Ukrainian port facilities in Odessa and on the Danube and so, the grain deal is dead; and (5) Russia has offered to provide grain free of charge to the poorest countries and forgiven $20+ billion in African debt

1) Wrong. Nothing about SWIFT. https://www.un.org/sg/en/content/sg...2-07-22/note-correspondents-today’s-agreement
2) If so, then Turkey who brokered the agreement and inspect the ships per the agreement is to blame. Yet - crickets....
3) Wrong. https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/infographics/ukrainian-grain-exports-explained/
4) That one is right.
5) Pure politics - especially when u had buckleys of ever being paid. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023...-debt-write-off-as-russia-seeks-africa-allies and he also said on a contractual basis. So what defines 'free of charge'?

Probably letting Wagner in to take out the existing govt - then you get free grain. And you also get to promote a 'stable multipolar world order' that has Wagner mercs in key military positions and a hotline to Moscow. Very multipolar that.

And amazingly coincidental that just prior to the Russia Africa summit, breaks the agreement, Putin makes these accusations and then flies down for the big show and tell. C'mon bro - this stinks and it isn't even subtle.

 

[Hacky McAxe]

It's a war of attrition and so, not about territorial gains yet... The Russians are trying to destroy as many Ukrainian soldiers and military equipment as possible until the Ukrainians can no longer hold the 800-1,000 km line of contact... And the Russians believe they are being successful in that

As for being evenly matched, not really... Like you said, the Russians are holding back a lot of their forces as a contingency for a greater war against NATO... and Putin is really trying to keep the effects of the war as far away as possible from everyday life in Russia... the Russians also have air superiority, naval power in the Black Sea and far more stand off missiles... As for the Kerch Bridge, the recent attack damaged one of the road lanes but for military purposes, it's the rail bridge which is important

As for the grain deal, the Russians maintain that: (1) they were complying with the deal but the West were not (eg. not reconnecting the Russian bank for agriculture to SWIFT); (2) the Ukrainians were using the deal to smuggle in weapons including potentially drones to attack Sevastopol and the Kerch Bridge; (3) the majority of Ukrainian grain was not going to poor countries but rather to the EU countries like Spain; (4) Russia is destroying all the Ukrainian port facilities in Odessa and on the Danube and so, the grain deal is dead; and (5) Russia has offered to provide grain free of charge to the poorest countries and forgiven $20+ billion in African debt

The Russians also maintain that this "special operation" is to protect Russia, stop Russian genocide, and de-nazify Ukraine. Russia hasn't been honest from the start.

 

[Mr 95%]

@Doogie @alchemist @Hacky McAxe

Fascinating guys..

 

[Doogie]

On a slightly more funny note - Aussie Cossack is holed up in the Russian embassy trying to dodge assault charges. He's also asking the Russians to capture foreign troops so he can be exchanged to Russia (I wonder if he knows that a prisoner exchange means he actually has to be a prisoner - lol).

And I can see he's worried its a stitch up. His own people filmed him pushing a 76 year old down some stairs and put in on UTube. On his channel.

Maybe he had a good point though - James Walters (one of his partners in crime) was found dead in May in Sydney. Coroners report pending but no suspicious circumstances. I wonder if the Australian Ukrainians had access to Thallium?