Russia vs Ukraine

Tassie Devil

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ASSASSIN said:
Replace Putin with Creepy Joe and it would be factual
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Who're your sources? I need to see written proof! ahaha

When it comes to the whole Russia / Ukraine thing, I personally think Biden has played a blinder so far.
 
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Psycho Doggie said:
Something got over there, and it is unlikely to be anything that the US handed over, at least without modification. Can't see the US giving UKR anything that can strike deep into Russian territory. I would also expect that at this stage UKR isn't going to tell their allies and supporters a lot of their plans, as that gives US, EU, etc, plausibly deniability.
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Another drone attack on Russian soil this morning. Again, nothing major but
 
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Doogie said:
Ukroboronprom claimed they were testing their new drones against electro jamming but had passed everything else to date earlier in the week. Nice feint if its actually field ready.

Do think its a dangerous game though - Russia have been clear about conditions for tactical nukes. Think its possibly a step too far based on one or two attacks on Russian territory but if it continues, with the war grinding to defined lines due to winter, the time to do it (if you were going to do it) is in the next month or so from a pure strategic perspective (i.e. nothing else to consider).

Interesting argument - what would it take for Russia to go tactical nuke (or even would they). Tough question coz it opens a fckng pandoras box at a whole range of levels.
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It is remarkable how quickly technical advances can be made in wartime, especially if things appear at all desperate. Normal risk management goes out the window, the guys with the crazy ideas start getting heard...

I may be precariously optimistic, but I don't think that the nuke pandora box is going to open so long as Putin is in charge. He isn't a crazed fanatic. It is certainly not outside the bounds of possibility that a crazed fanatic DOES get power at some point, however, and Putin has created around himself a power structure that would be extremely dangerous should he get turfed and someone else gets access to the button.
 
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Tassie Devil said:
Lots of debate over this and I find the most interesting part as how Ukraine has been able to get through Russian air defence so relatively easily. It's some 700km from Kiev I think so a fair way!

Remember posting earlier about Russia taking their air defence systems to Ukraine and leaving their homeland quite open to attack, so maybe that's what's happened?

There was a report coming from US media saying that the US had secretly disabled the capability of HIMARS to fire launch long distance missiles which made me laugh if I'm honest. Not so secret if they're telling the world ...

Will be interesting seeing what news comes from this today.

Have seen some in the media worried about potential esculation because of this pointing towards nucleur attacks. Nah. Putin has nothing.
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The debate will rage over the details, but as far as I can see no one is debating that UKR managed to pull this off somehow. If they have indeed managed to launch from a UAV, that is more significant because of what else they could potentially do, and what Russia might do in retaliation.

Both sides are claiming the "defense of our soil" moral high ground, this is partly why so many Russian people remain loyal, the fear of western invasion by evil forces and the concept of fighting back with everything has been hard baked into them since at least the days of Napoleon. Given both sides have the "defending against the aggressor" mentality, it is hard to see how this ends without a lot more mess.
 
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Psycho Doggie said:
It is remarkable how quickly technical advances can be made in wartime, especially if things appear at all desperate. Normal risk management goes out the window, the guys with the crazy ideas start getting heard...

I may be precariously optimistic, but I don't think that the nuke pandora box is going to open so long as Putin is in charge. He isn't a crazed fanatic. It is certainly not outside the bounds of possibility that a crazed fanatic DOES get power at some point, however, and Putin has created around himself a power structure that would be extremely dangerous should he get turfed and someone else gets access to the button.
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Have to agree on this.

Putin likes to try and bluff (the grain incident) but when challenged backs down. The fact China has openly called out Putin on potential use of nucleur weapns says it all to me.

As you say though, there are some madmen behind him that are capable of such things ...
 
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Psycho Doggie said:
It is remarkable how quickly technical advances can be made in wartime, especially if things appear at all desperate. Normal risk management goes out the window, the guys with the crazy ideas start getting heard...

I may be precariously optimistic, but I don't think that the nuke pandora box is going to open so long as Putin is in charge. He isn't a crazed fanatic. It is certainly not outside the bounds of possibility that a crazed fanatic DOES get power at some point, however, and Putin has created around himself a power structure that would be extremely dangerous should he get turfed and someone else gets access to the button.
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Ya fair point. Although there are nukes and there are nukes. I can see scenarios where he might roll the dice on something small.

Interesting times.
 
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Psycho Doggie said:
The debate will rage over the details, but as far as I can see no one is debating that UKR managed to pull this off somehow. If they have indeed managed to launch from a UAV, that is more significant because of what else they could potentially do, and what Russia might do in retaliation.

Both sides are claiming the "defense of our soil" moral high ground, this is partly why so many Russian people remain loyal, the fear of western invasion by evil forces and the concept of fighting back with everything has been hard baked into them since at least the days of Napoleon. Given both sides have the "defending against the aggressor" mentality, it is hard to see how this ends without a lot more mess.
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Agree again. This won't end for a considerable time imo.

Rumours abound of another mass mobilisation in Russia this coming January so more cattle to the slaughter which will only prolong the war.
 
Psycho Doggie

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Doogie said:
Ya fair point. Although there are nukes and there are nukes. I can see scenarios where he might roll the dice on something small.

Interesting times.
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I'm not really across the so called tactical stuff, so I couldn't comment. How small are the small options, compared with Hiroshima? I'm not sure anyone could get away with a Hiroshima sized attack without a significant alliance being formed to wipe the offending nation off the map. I wonder if even the people in the top decision making circles don't even know for certain what they would do, they kinda need it to happen and to respond to actual events.
 
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Psycho Doggie said:
Something got over there, and it is unlikely to be anything that the US handed over, at least without modification. Can't see the US giving UKR anything that can strike deep into Russian territory. I would also expect that at this stage UKR isn't going to tell their allies and supporters a lot of their plans, as that gives US, EU, etc, plausibly deniability.
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20221206_154854.png

Thats really significant if true as it means Ukraine has a got potentially multiple groups deep within Russia... If Ukraine is to be believe of course!

Does make some sense considering they were relatively accurate considering how far they must've come
 
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Psycho Doggie said:
I'm not really across the so called tactical stuff, so I couldn't comment. How small are the small options, compared with Hiroshima? I'm not sure anyone could get away with a Hiroshima sized attack without a significant alliance being formed to wipe the offending nation off the map. I wonder if even the people in the top decision making circles don't even know for certain what they would do, they kinda need it to happen and to respond to actual events.
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Not me either but Fat Boy would be considered 'tactical' by todays definition - but that probably reflects how far in the other direction they went. S'pose you could go from a dirty bomb up to a small payload. Hard to say though because the days of lining media up to watch big booms in the desert are long gone.

If u went there, its obviously a big political decision. Justification and target selection would play massive roles in determining whether u could avoid the fallout internationally (PTP). If Ukraine keeps attacking Russia - well - Russia were explicit. Bluff? Who knows.
 
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I've heard that Zelensky is Jewish, is this true? If so it would explain why he is so hell bent on aligning himself with Murica and thereby Israel. It would also explain his outreach to Hollywood for propaganda.
 
Tassie Devil

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Mr 95% said:
This article looks at the implications of such actions..


www.defenseone.com

Explosions at Russian Air Bases May Change Several Nations’ Calculations

Moscow says Ukraine converted old Soviet drones into long-range weapons that struck hundreds of miles inside Russian territory.
www.defenseone.com www.defenseone.com
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Really interesting.

Never understood that line about the US not supplying long-range weapons as it means it'll bring more countries into the war. What about North Korea and Iran?

Anyway, that's another matter.

Kudos to Ukraine it must be said, and fucking embarrassing for the Ruskies. Will be interesting following these developments without a doubt.

Thanks mate!
 
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