Regardless of our squad, you need to consider who from last years top 8 is going to fall out? To make room for us? Who gets worse by a margin big enough to allow us into the 8? Penrith? No. Roosters? No. Parra? Maybe but I still think they win enough games to make it. Cowboys? Potentially. Sharks? No. Storm? Unlikely. Bunnies? Potentially. Raiders? Potentially.
Looking at that, there will probably be 1, maybe 2 that slide down the ladder from last year.
We have a fresh squad, that will take time to click, a brand new head coach with <10 head coaching games to his name, and in those games the team effectively run itself, by his admission. I would like to think our squad will get us there and I’m very hopeful for it. But to say it’s a guarantee or poor season not to make the 8 is a bit of a stretch. Unless we come out the gates like Cowboys last year and have an outlier season. Fingers crossed.
My 20 cents (grossly overpriced at that) on who might drop out of the 8 and why, my view is that top 8 is also about depth not just how many strike players are on the roster;
Penrith - No, they have enough depth to survive almost anything.
Chooks - Possibly, they have the same old problem, their top 17 is quality, but the drop off is sharp after that. Their main "enforcer" JWH isn't getting any younger and a few injuries (cough cough Keary) and they are farked. Plus if Robinson continues with his crazy player welfare decisions from the last 3 seasons then injuries are a likely result.
Scum - Likely, but who knows what happens to Brad Arthur if they drop a few in row. They have lost Niukore, Isaiah Papali'i, Stone, Oregon Kaufusi, Mahoney, Perham and Opacic and aside from Hodgson haven't replaced them with anyone of note.
Cowboys - No, too much home ground advantage (BTW we beat them in R1 last year) and they haven't lost much in the way of quality players.
Sharks - Possibly, same as Chooks, depth is questionable. Plus they have lost Metcalf, Pele, Fifita and Tolman (that's a hell of a lot of experience gone) and not really replaced them with anyone.
Storm - Unlikely, but Paps is out for no one knows how long, Meanie is playing fullback, and they have lost Bromwich's x 2, Nofoaluma is no longer on loan, Felise Kaufusi and of course Brandon Smith. The big question, how much has Bellamy got left in him as this his last year (maybe).
Bunnies - Possibly, they have only really lost Nicholls and Nikorima but they haven't been replaced, they are relying on promotion from within (in other words they have Cap problems). Their half back is worse than ours, Cook and Burgess are another year older and aside from Mitchell and Johnson their backline looks weak.
Raiders -Likely, they have lost Hodgson, Sutton, Elliott and CNK plus they don't have an experienced back-up halfback since Sam Williams has retired.
That's 2 x No, 1 x Unlikely, 3 x Possibly and 2 x Likely.
Always a Bulldog