That’s all true, but none of that proves the cause of death beyond reasonable doubt. Without that I don’t think he can be convicted of any of the charges (by a reasonable jury).
Reasonable doubt is relative to the charge. He's facing 3 potential charges. All 3 require the jury to consider that he used unreasonable force. That's where the main reasonable doubt comes in. If the jury has doubt that he used unreasonable force then none of the charges matter. He'll be declared innocent and trial over. But based on the trial notes, I think it's pretty well established that he used unreasonable force.
Personally I think it'll result in Manslaughter. In regard to the Jury conviction on the charges, it'll come down to:
- 2nd Degree Murder: Jury must believe that Chauvin intended to cause harm to Floyd. If it's proven beyond reasonable doubt that Chauvin wanted to harm Floyd and Floyd died, then this is the conviction that will stick
- 3rd Degree Murder: Jury must believe that Chauvin was completely reckless in his actions
- Manslaughter: Jury must believe that Chauvin was crap at his job and through negligence, created a dangerous scenario
As I said, personally I think that at minimum he'll get Manslaughter based on my knowledge of the US legal system. There's a decent chance he'll get 3rd degree murder. Both are fair convictions for the circumstance. If he gets 2nd degree murder I think it may be an unfair conviction.