Coronavirus.

[Hacky McAxe]

I think there worse was 80 000 a year. This is with a vaccine though. Imagine the death toll with no vaccine

61,000 is the record for the last 40 years. In 2017 they thought it was 80,000 initially but it turned out to be only 61,000 which is the most since 1967. Definitely on the vaccine thing though. But the infection rate is less than half of Covid-19 so that has to be taken into account.

 

[Hacky McAxe]

At the moment..I remember your earlier projection Australia was in big trouble..have done well.. Would you say?

Definitely. We got in early and slowed it right down.

There's 3 main ways to attack this virus. Eahc one has a turning point that when cases get too many, you need to move to the next strategy:

1) stop the spread early through contact tracing

2) stop the spread early through lockdowns

3) herd immunity

The 3rd option leads to the most amount of deaths but when it gets too far then it's generally at that stage for places like New York and Spain that have too many cases to shut it down. Australia is at strategy 2 and it has worked well enough that we can now use strategy 1 to stop it. Places like Taiwan got in early on strategy 1 and didn't need to go to another strategy.

There's downsides that we will face. While many will die in NYC and Spain now, a second wave won't do as much damage. A second wave in Australia could be devastating because we don't have that herd immunity. Unless a vaccine arrives before then.

BTW, herd immunity is a calculation based on infection rate. Generally from what we've seen of this virus R0 rate, we would need 80-90% of the population to be infected for herd immunity.

If Australia gets to the stage where we need to take the herd immunity approach, we're looking at anywhere from 50,000 - 200,000 deaths. So we don't want to take that approach.

 

[Hacky McAxe]

On the plus side of all this...

https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe...-passing-virus-to-adults-20200430-p54ohi.html

Experts fail to find a single case of children passing virus to adults

No child has been found to have passed coronavirus to an adult, a review of the evidence in partnership with the Royal College of Paediatrics has found.

Major studies into the impact of COVID-19 on young children suggest they "do not play a significant role" in spreading the virus and are less likely to become infected than adults.

More research is needed though

 

[Mr 95%]

Definitely. We got in early and slowed it right down.

There's 3 main ways to attack this virus. Eahc one has a turning point that when cases get too many, you need to move to the next strategy:

1) stop the spread early through contact tracing

2) stop the spread early through lockdowns

3) herd immunity

The 3rd option leads to the most amount of deaths but when it gets too far then it's generally at that stage for places like New York and Spain that have too many cases to shut it down. Australia is at strategy 2 and it has worked well enough that we can now use strategy 1 to stop it. Places like Taiwan got in early on strategy 1 and didn't need to go to another strategy.

There's downsides that we will face. While many will die in NYC and Spain now, a second wave won't do as much damage. A second wave in Australia could be devastating because we don't have that herd immunity. Unless a vaccine arrives before then.

BTW, herd immunity is a calculation based on infection rate. Generally from what we've seen of this virus R0 rate, we would need 80-90% of the population to be infected for herd immunity.

If Australia gets to the stage where we need to take the herd immunity approach, we're looking at anywhere from 50,000 - 200,000 deaths. So we don't want to take that approach.

Thanks Hacky!

 

[Cook]

On the plus side of all this...

https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe...-passing-virus-to-adults-20200430-p54ohi.html

Experts fail to find a single case of children passing virus to adults

No child has been found to have passed coronavirus to an adult, a review of the evidence in partnership with the Royal College of Paediatrics has found.

Major studies into the impact of COVID-19 on young children suggest they "do not play a significant role" in spreading the virus and are less likely to become infected than adults.

More research is needed though

It’s so odd hey. My sisters friends baby somehow had it. Yet both parents were negative and never contracted it

 

[Hacky McAxe]

It’s so odd hey. My sisters friends baby somehow had it. Yet both parents were negative and never contracted it

Yeah, it's weird.

There's many that seem to pick it up on their hands and clothes but don't catch it. Then there's the fact that the tests are only 50-70% accurate.

I have a friend who does the tests in Victoria. They always take two swabs to make it as accurate as possible. In NSW they generally only take one swab.

 

[Wahesh]

There might be a few rolls at Coles but that's not your doing, you were hoping like hell it was available. I don't leave things to chance, I like to pull the strings instead of being the chump at the hand with his hand held out hoping there is some crumbs for him.

There is no good relying on government stimulus to live, hand to mouth arrangement. You do things for yourself.

This whole toilet paper issue showed who are the go-getters that make things happen, then there are those who have no influence on an outcome, can't compete in society when push comes to shove, everytime they use their credit card, they are 50/50 if it will decline or approve

Dude don’t you get it? By hoarding you were part of the problem.

 

[Cook]

Yeah, it's weird.

There's many that seem to pick it up on their hands and clothes but don't catch it. Then there's the fact that the tests are only 50-70% accurate.

I have a friend who does the tests in Victoria. They always take two swabs to make it as accurate as possible. In NSW they generally only take one swab.

Didn’t know testing wasn’t 100% accurate. That’s a worry. Why can’t they do a blood test??

 

[south of heaven]

@Scoooby nz aus travel getting closer ,I thought end of August would be reasonable looks like sooner perhaps? I hope they get it right
https://www.news.com.au/finance/bus...e/news-story/4a0478f35d69fc93bde4e90f49b2c5af

Ps do you know Japan has more vending machines than new Zealand does people ?

 

[Scoooby]

@Scoooby nz aus travel getting closer ,I thought end of August would be reasonable looks like sooner perhaps? I hope they get it right
https://www.news.com.au/finance/bus...e/news-story/4a0478f35d69fc93bde4e90f49b2c5af

Ps do you know Japan has more vending machines than new Zealand does people ?

I don’t know about that mate, should leave it even longer, maybe December to be safe, otherwise all the good work will be undone and we will be in full lockdown again for longer.!!!

and I didn’t know that lol, but it wouldn’t surprise me.. they also have more bats too

 

[Blue_boost]

Dude don’t you get it? By hoarding you were part of the problem.

Again I can't control the actions of others. I can only respond to the market.

Supply was low but I managed to get enough rolls , others didn't. When the stampede was on they were trampled and I was the one who trampled them

Is your argument the same as trading on the share market?

 

[Blue_boost]

Who do you work for Rolex? or Seiko?

I always have a nice timepiece on. Rarely the same timepiece too.

 

[Hacky McAxe]

Didn’t know testing wasn’t 100% accurate. That’s a worry. Why can’t they do a blood test??

Due to the way the virus works. Doesn't show up in blood much.

The only way to get an accurate test (97% accuracy) is to flush out someone's lungs with water. Which is difficult to do without killing someone. Most common test is the nasal swab which ranges from 50% to 70% accuracy depending how long since you caught the virus.

Then there's anti-body tests after you are over the virus, but they're only about 80%-90% accurate and often get it mixed up with other Coronaviruses. And not everyone develops anti-bodies.

 

[south of heaven]

Watch the USA have a surge they stop social distancing today and getting domestic flights back on track what could possibly go wrong with still over 1 million infected
USA USA USA

 

[Wahesh]

Again I can't control the actions of others. I can only respond to the market.

Supply was low but I managed to get enough rolls , others didn't. When the stampede was on they were trampled and I was the one who trampled them

Is your argument the same as trading on the share market?

No, you do not have control of the market, but you have control of your actions. Toilet paper is one of those items that you should have adequate supply of, just like food, milk, soap, deodorant etc... if you wait until you have 1 roll left before you decide to go and get some, you deserve to be in the rough patch. Only now are we starting to reach our final 12 pack of toilet paper which we had before this all began. Now that we're up to our final 12, it's up to me to get another one next time I'm at Coles... and there's more than enough. I also have the luxury of waiting a few days before they're on special.

 

[Blue_boost]

No, you do not have control of the market, but you have control of your actions. Toilet paper is one of those items that you should have adequate supply of, just like food, milk, soap, deodorant etc... if you wait until you have 1 roll left before you decide to go and get some, you deserve to be in the rough patch. Only now are we starting to reach our final 12 pack of toilet paper which we had before this all began. Now that we're up to our final 12, it's up to me to get another one next time I'm at Coles... and there's more than enough. I also have the luxury of waiting a few days before they're on special.

So we can agree we don't have control of the market supply etc.

We also agree we control our own action

So we respond to market conditions. A viral pandemic is not normal living conditions, you stock up and visit the supermarket less frequently. Hence increase your stocks.. anyone with less than 50 rolls completely misread the situation or are very slack in hunting essential supplies for your family. Irresponsible

 

[Dogna88]

So we can agree we don't have control of the market supply etc.

We also agree we control our own action

So we respond to market conditions. A viral pandemic is not normal living conditions, you stock up and visit the supermarket less frequently. Hence increase your stocks.. anyone with less than 50 rolls completely misread the situation or are very slack in hunting essential supplies for your family. Irresponsible

Toilet paper is essential?

Maybe your definition of essential is different to mine.

Essential to me means you need that item to survive. Anything else is just a luxury.

Stock up in food and water. Yup essential. Stock up on toliet paper. Stocking out of consumer panic.

 

[south of heaven]

Lol America the gift that keeps on giving
https://www.news.com.au/world/coron...s/news-story/443781a75d61b8fa44b146fdaa851f59

 

[MatstaDogg]

Lol America the gift that keeps on giving
https://www.news.com.au/world/coron...s/news-story/443781a75d61b8fa44b146fdaa851f59

America...Fuck Yeah!!

Australia just keeps on looking better and better. The yanks could learn a thing or two from us.

 

[Cook]

America...Fuck Yeah!!

Australia just keeps on looking better and better. The yanks could learn a thing or two from us.

They could definitely learn a lot from us. But you do have to understand with the lockdown there’s now 30mil people out of work in the USA. Which is probably higher as more industry continues to die. It’s a balancing act to also not ruin your country for life. Agreed though there response has been terrible compared with ours.