2012 Cap Picture: Not As Bleak As You Would Think

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B-Train

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With all of this Idris speculation for a crazy 400k a year (which we all know he hasn't earnt yet and isn't worth yet but the BS market and competing offers will drive that price up) as well as concerns about just re-signing and upgrading Morris, Ennis and having signed many players to big contracts, you would think we will be in huge cap trouble moving forward.

That's what I thought. I was worried that we wouldn't then have money to re-sign young guys coming through, upgrade them or sign depth from other clubs even after losing "depth" this year. Well, when going on the reported figures for everyone, and guessing a little, the picture is still great moving forward.

The cap is 4.3 million I believe. Say we DO re-sign Idris for a crazy 400k a year, this is a rough guide, obviously that could be off by a few hundred thousand here or there, to show what shape we are in moving forward.

25 Man NRL Squad:


1: Barba: 200k (will deserve more soon if he flourishes, a lot more, but right now would be lucky to be getting that much)

2: Turner: 200k (might seem like a lot but is a rep winger and would command that much)

3: Morris: 350k

4: Idris: 400k

5: Goodwin: 180k (Don't think he is worth it, maybe on less but after having a breakout first year and playing for NZ would be something like this. Personally think we should replace him with Lett now and not re-sign him but Moore loves him)

6: Keating: 175k (People scoffed at his signing and I thought he was a bargain, just that we created more of a logjam. He's only played one game but he's proven me right and is a steal either way. Low risk at that price high reward.)

7: Hodkinson: 275k (Alot after 7 games but is great defender, very solid. Hopefully improves attacking kicking game and passing but still very young and I thank god every day, who I don't believe in, that we didn't sign Mortimer for 400k who is the most useless player I've ever seen)

8: Tolman: 325k (Great signing then and even better now. But we would have paid a nice price. He is worth it though)

9: Ennis: 325k (Have my problems with him but still top 5 hooker and still a good one who could be great)

10: Eastwood: 275k (Think he is on a bit less but just to be safe.....)

11: Pritchard: 400k (Crazy money and to sign him for that long is a disaster. If he plays to his potential, 600k would be a bargain. But prepared to get frustrated just like Penny fans have been for 8 years. I hope he proves me wrong.)

12: Ryan: 100k (Contract has been so front loaded that he's almost on nothing this season.

13: Stagg: 260k (Lock of the year, well sought after and was amazing for us. Could be on less)

14: Roberts: 200k (Off contract and will not be re-signed it appears. Comes off the books and hopefully use that money for Sezer.)

15: Armit: 125k (Personally think he's way more use than Paea and should be playing and kept around. He's solid and doesn't make mistakes. He's our third best prop behind Tolman and Eastwood.)

16: Millington: 120k (Signed til end of 2012. Don't see him being used much or offering much. Can't really play prop and our second row is too good for him)

17: Halatau: 150k (Off contract. Talented and injured, versatile player but has done nothing and where does he fit in? Does not need to be re-signed)

18: Hodgson: 80k (Appears to be on last legs. Still think he has more to offer than someone like Tapau at this stage but can't see us re-signing him and nor should we)

19: Payne: 100k (Can see him being re-signed. Better than I thought he would be, Moore likes him, local junior and wouldn't command much. Probably re-sign for just a little more if that)

20: Lett: 120k (Signed til end of next year. Again, think he is an NRL player, can offer a lot and think he should play instead of Goodwin. Great backup and think he should get a chance. Would kill it somewhere like Nth Qld or Canberra etc)

21: Warburton: 120k: (Good backup, seems to be improving. Dunno when he is off contract and may or may not be kept)

22: Tia Kilifi: 80k (Useless. No point keeping. Not in any frame for any position even with injuries galore Off contract and won't be re-signed)

23: Paea: 150k (Solid backup. Can do lots of good things and even more bad. Can't see him commanding much more than what he would be on)

24: Wright: 140k: (Came over from Parra with a few clubs after him so would cost a little. Thought he was good backup but the fact that he was supposed to be direct backup for Idris and Morris and even supposed to be good enough to fornce Idris into the second row, well the fact that we're picking an unknown 20's kid, allegedly, to replace Morris can't be a good sign. Signed til end of 12)

25: Tandy: (His 200-250k comes right off the books)



So, with those 25 players, some like Idris and Morris and Ennis already on their 2012 figures, the amount totals roughly $5.1 million. But that is adding at least 400k for the upgraded salary of Ennis, Idris and Morris and other backloaded deals and not yet subtracting Tandy's 250k. Plus minus 300k for the cap concessions that we would have made to Pritchard, Eastwood etc and money for a ten year player like Ryan, and the amount is about $4.1 million.

But for 2012, saying we don't re-sign Halatau, Paea, Hodgson, Tia-Kilifi and Roberts while keeping Payne, Ryan and Armit on similar deals, while upgrading guys like Foster to 150k to be part of the squad, Sezer to 180k and Kasiano for 150k, that means our cap figure for 2012 with a squad of:

Barba, Turner, Morris, Idris, Goodwin, Keating, Hodkinson, Tolman, Ennis, Eastwood, Pritchard, Ryan, Stagg, Sezer, Kasiano, Foster, Armit, Millington, Warburton, Wright, Lett, Payne.....


That squad of 22, with 3 spots to be filled would amount to $4.6 million. Minus 300k for concessions with third party deals as Idris would take them up and that is $4.34 million.

Considering many of the deals like Ennis, Pritchardm Morris, Idris etc would be backloaded, and having upgraded guys like Sezer (150k) Kasiano (150k) and Foster (150k) there will be more money available for the last 3 players. Plus we still have a great suqad and kept youngsters.

So while long winded, we are in good shape to re-sign youngsters and sign more depth even if we give Idris a mammoth 400k when he isn't yet worth it. Great news and that sure put my mind at ease. Hopefully it helped some of you. And hopefully they increase the cap very soon with the new TV rights deals coming in. Which they will. So that helps too and could potentially raise the cap to 4.8 million in the next few years.
 
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Hansta

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dogs would be keeping an eye on the new tv rights deal which should come into effect in 2013? Might be looking at a 5 million dolar salary cap.
 

MP4 - Eedz

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Idris will settle for much less Benny,

This is a ploy to get a boost up on the current offer ... Greenburg is smart, he sent him to Newcastle for a very good reason. Idris now knows we offer more then they do other then the money.

So in effect he strengthened our ability to bid less and STILL secure him

Also, with the new TV rights deal not far away we can afford to over pay NOW (lose a player over it) then re-purchase that player (or of equal quality) when the cap is boosted
 

MP4 - Eedz

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dogs would be keeping an eye on the new tv rights deal which should come into effect in 2013? Might be looking at a 5 million dolar salary cap.
It'll be more, its estimating our new deal will match the AFL's current deal

and there cap is greater then 5 million ... I'm GUESSING the cap will hit 5.5 to 6 million, hence the average marquee player will get closer to 600-700, meaning if we sign Idris to 375-400 now (may seem like alot) it's actually a bargain in the near future
 

likeadoggy

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Idris i can take or leave. He's prolly ending up in the forwards anyway . Idris is one that atm we can afford to lose. I would rather throw money at Hodko,Foster,Tolman,Barba,Sezer,Reynolds,Kasiano and tie these blokes up for years to come. It would be great to keep Idris but with Morris there we have a world class centre anyway. Good post btw - something to get excited at the future about.
 

MP4 - Eedz

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^^ I disagree, we need Idris

Not just from a playing point of view, but his worth his weight in gold from a marketing point of view as well IMO
 

B-Train

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It'll be more, its estimating our new deal will match the AFL's current deal

and there cap is greater then 5 million ... I'm GUESSING the cap will hit 5.5 to 6 million, hence the average marquee player will get closer to 600-700, meaning if we sign Idris to 375-400 now (may seem like alot) it's actually a bargain in the near future
I'm saying worst case scenario that we do give him 400k and that the cap remains at 4.3 million. Even then we have a couple of hundred thousand for three squad players after hopefully upgrading Foster & Kasiano to decent deals and hopefully convincing Sezer to stay for 150k which is quite a lot when he hasn't even played FG. Worst case scenario here and even then we are in solid shape. That's the point of the thread. Not about if Idris is worth it etc or how much he will actually get.

And like I said, if we utilise the Reserve Grade cap well, we can still keep some decent depth here and there. Hopefully some 20's kids step up and get put into the NRL squad on next to no money for a few years. If not, again, we have roughly 400k to spend on 3 backup players while already having good depth. Another good prop would be amazing and hard to find. Everything else we are set for.
 

MP4 - Eedz

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I know but we often predict salaries and think we are in good shape, but it's not always the case :(

Which is were I'm coming from, even we have to pver pay now and lose a player it's okay !!
 

Doga

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Idris will settle for much less Benny,

This is a ploy to get a boost up on the current offer ... Greenburg is smart, he sent him to Newcastle for a very good reason. Idris now knows we offer more then they do other then the money.

So in effect he strengthened our ability to bid less and STILL secure him


Also, with the new TV rights deal not far away we can afford to over pay NOW (lose a player over it) then re-purchase that player (or of equal quality) when the cap is boosted
That is what I got out of the whole article yesterday too.
 

B-Train

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To be honest, I don't think any club should be paying 700-750k for 2 centres. I think the balance is all wrong. Centres are important but not that important. Do I want us to keep Idris? Absolutely. At that price? No way. But if he re-signed for a crazy amount, as much as it wouldn't sit well with me, we could handle it. Say he re-signs for 325k (which I don't think he would, someone like Tinkler or the GC would offer him crazy money and you know it) then great, we save an extra 75k and keep a great young player for 3 years.

If he goes, I'm sure we could find a good young replacement centre for between 125k-250k. In which case we have even more cap space and flexibility to upgrade Barba, get a really good prop etc.

I don't want to lose him but I wouldn't think it was the end of the world. Morris is a great strike centre. Someone like Sau, Ayshford, Whare, Tomane, or some 20's whiz kid would be fine.
 

Doga

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^^ I disagree, we need Idris

Not just from a playing point of view, but his worth his weight in gold from a marketing point of view as well IMO
I have said it before and I will say it again. Idris is the most marketable player in RL ever. Moreso than SBW, Inglis, Thurston etc.

He is a superstar athlete and has a charisma that has never before been seen in the NRL
 

MP4 - Eedz

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I have said it before and I will say it again. Idris is the most marketable player in RL ever. Moreso than SBW, Inglis, Thurston etc.

He is a superstar athlete and has a charisma that has never before been seen in the NRL
That's exactly right

Idris will go places after football mark my words, you want a guy like that assoicated with your club ... it's all about survival (and if you win a premiership along the way beautiful) but every club goes a decade without a premiership !!!

But not every club consistently gets Friday night Club, high sponsorship, security in the league, excitement EVERY week for the game etc etc etc etc ... Marquee Players bring that, centre or not
 
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purpleskittles

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Idris is Sonny, Mason, Thurston etc all in one without the Ego - this is why he will go further off the field as well as on it. Definitely a must keep!
 

likeadoggy

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Idris is Sonny, Mason, Thurston etc all in one without the Ego - this is why he will go further off the field as well as on it. Definitely a must keep!
bahahaha. First of all Sonny and JT have more skill than he will ever have. Secondly Jamal has one of the healthiest ego's in sport!! Where are you coming from?
 

_G-Dog_

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With all of this Idris speculation for a crazy 400k a year (which we all know he hasn't earnt yet and isn't worth yet but the BS market and competing offers will drive that price up) as well as concerns about just re-signing and upgrading Morris, Ennis and having signed many players to big contracts, you would think we will be in huge cap trouble moving forward.

That's what I thought. I was worried that we wouldn't then have money to re-sign young guys coming through, upgrade them or sign depth from other clubs even after losing "depth" this year. Well, when going on the reported figures for everyone, and guessing a little, the picture is still great moving forward.

The cap is 4.3 million I believe. Say we DO re-sign Idris for a crazy 400k a year, this is a rough guide, obviously that could be off by a few hundred thousand here or there, to show what shape we are in moving forward.

25 Man NRL Squad:


1: Barba: 200k (will deserve more soon if he flourishes, a lot more, but right now would be lucky to be getting that much)

2: Turner: 200k (might seem like a lot but is a rep winger and would command that much)

3: Morris: 350k

4: Idris: 400k

5: Goodwin: 180k (Don't think he is worth it, maybe on less but after having a breakout first year and playing for NZ would be something like this. Personally think we should replace him with Lett now and not re-sign him but Moore loves him)

6: Keating: 175k (People scoffed at his signing and I thought he was a bargain, just that we created more of a logjam. He's only played one game but he's proven me right and is a steal either way. Low risk at that price high reward.)

7: Hodkinson: 275k (Alot after 7 games but is great defender, very solid. Hopefully improves attacking kicking game and passing but still very young and I thank god every day, who I don't believe in, that we didn't sign Mortimer for 400k who is the most useless player I've ever seen)

8: Tolman: 325k (Great signing then and even better now. But we would have paid a nice price. He is worth it though)

9: Ennis: 325k (Have my problems with him but still top 5 hooker and still a good one who could be great)

10: Eastwood: 275k (Think he is on a bit less but just to be safe.....)

11: Pritchard: 400k (Crazy money and to sign him for that long is a disaster. If he plays to his potential, 600k would be a bargain. But prepared to get frustrated just like Penny fans have been for 8 years. I hope he proves me wrong.)

12: Ryan: 100k (Contract has been so front loaded that he's almost on nothing this season.

13: Stagg: 260k (Lock of the year, well sought after and was amazing for us. Could be on less)

14: Roberts: 200k (Off contract and will not be re-signed it appears. Comes off the books and hopefully use that money for Sezer.)

15: Armit: 125k (Personally think he's way more use than Paea and should be playing and kept around. He's solid and doesn't make mistakes. He's our third best prop behind Tolman and Eastwood.)

16: Millington: 120k (Signed til end of 2012. Don't see him being used much or offering much. Can't really play prop and our second row is too good for him)

17: Halatau: 150k (Off contract. Talented and injured, versatile player but has done nothing and where does he fit in? Does not need to be re-signed)

18: Hodgson: 80k (Appears to be on last legs. Still think he has more to offer than someone like Tapau at this stage but can't see us re-signing him and nor should we)

19: Payne: 100k (Can see him being re-signed. Better than I thought he would be, Moore likes him, local junior and wouldn't command much. Probably re-sign for just a little more if that)

20: Lett: 120k (Signed til end of next year. Again, think he is an NRL player, can offer a lot and think he should play instead of Goodwin. Great backup and think he should get a chance. Would kill it somewhere like Nth Qld or Canberra etc)

21: Warburton: 120k: (Good backup, seems to be improving. Dunno when he is off contract and may or may not be kept)

22: Tia Kilifi: 80k (Useless. No point keeping. Not in any frame for any position even with injuries galore Off contract and won't be re-signed)

23: Paea: 150k (Solid backup. Can do lots of good things and even more bad. Can't see him commanding much more than what he would be on)

24: Wright: 140k: (Came over from Parra with a few clubs after him so would cost a little. Thought he was good backup but the fact that he was supposed to be direct backup for Idris and Morris and even supposed to be good enough to fornce Idris into the second row, well the fact that we're picking an unknown 20's kid, allegedly, to replace Morris can't be a good sign. Signed til end of 12)

25: Tandy: (His 200-250k comes right off the books)



So, with those 25 players, some like Idris and Morris and Ennis already on their 2012 figures, the amount totals roughly $5.1 million. But that is adding at least 400k for the upgraded salary of Ennis, Idris and Morris and other backloaded deals and not yet subtracting Tandy's 250k. Plus minus 300k for the cap concessions that we would have made to Pritchard, Eastwood etc and money for a ten year player like Ryan, and the amount is about $4.1 million.

But for 2012, saying we don't re-sign Halatau, Paea, Hodgson, Tia-Kilifi and Roberts while keeping Payne, Ryan and Armit on similar deals, while upgrading guys like Foster to 150k to be part of the squad, Sezer to 180k and Kasiano for 150k, that means our cap figure for 2012 with a squad of:

Barba, Turner, Morris, Idris, Goodwin, Keating, Hodkinson, Tolman, Ennis, Eastwood, Pritchard, Ryan, Stagg, Sezer, Kasiano, Foster, Armit, Millington, Warburton, Wright, Lett, Payne.....


That squad of 22, with 3 spots to be filled would amount to $4.6 million. Minus 300k for concessions with third party deals as Idris would take them up and that is $4.34 million.

Considering many of the deals like Ennis, Pritchardm Morris, Idris etc would be backloaded, and having upgraded guys like Sezer (150k) Kasiano (150k) and Foster (150k) there will be more money available for the last 3 players. Plus we still have a great suqad and kept youngsters.
Lett has only signed for 1 year, looking for a shot in FG .. I hope he gets an opportunity here in FG to show his worth otherwise he will be gone next year & he was NSW cup team of year for 2010 for good reason ... Big strong fast and a good jump ... He is a FG winger now IMO, Turner does the little things well but Lett can break a game open with his speed and finishing ability, our backline needs speed ...

I know Lett personally he is itching for a FG opportunity, if he gets a chance he will take it with both hands and not look back, its a difficult situation as Goodwin is a our goalkicker and Turner has been resigned for next year, so dunno what will happen even if he does impress in FG this year

Halatau is still contracted till end of next year ... Should be released for mine, too small for backrow and has lost his speed.. the game has changed since 2005

Tandy is on 140K/yr contracted till end next year ... Cant wait for this saga to be brought to a conclusion ... Would be happy for him to be in the team if he is cleared, his knock on was so subtle if the touchie missed it it would be non issue

Tia Kilifi ... Not needed
 

Bakes

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^^ I disagree, we need Idris

Not just from a playing point of view, but his worth his weight in gold from a marketing point of view as well IMO
100% agree. Must be retained
 

The Greatest

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Idris will settle for much less Benny,

This is a ploy to get a boost up on the current offer ... Greenburg is smart, he sent him to Newcastle for a very good reason. Idris now knows we offer more then they do other then the money.

So in effect he strengthened our ability to bid less and STILL secure him

Also, with the new TV rights deal not far away we can afford to over pay NOW (lose a player over it) then re-purchase that player (or of equal quality) when the cap is boosted
You have read my mind to be honest.

To be honest, I don't think any club should be paying 700-750k for 2 centres. I think the balance is all wrong. Centres are important but not that important. Do I want us to keep Idris? Absolutely. At that price? No way. But if he re-signed for a crazy amount, as much as it wouldn't sit well with me, we could handle it. Say he re-signs for 325k (which I don't think he would, someone like Tinkler or the GC would offer him crazy money and you know it) then great, we save an extra 75k and keep a great young player for 3 years.

If he goes, I'm sure we could find a good young replacement centre for between 125k-250k. In which case we have even more cap space and flexibility to upgrade Barba, get a really good prop etc.

I don't want to lose him but I wouldn't think it was the end of the world. Morris is a great strike centre. Someone like Sau, Ayshford, Whare, Tomane, or some 20's whiz kid would be fine.
I agree with the bolded part, but I think Idris is the excpetion to the rule, because you are not just signing a run of the mill centre, the guy is a superstar of the future, he is ver marketable, in a way he is like the David Bekham of the NRL...


I have said it before and I will say it again. Idris is the most marketable player in RL ever. Moreso than SBW, Inglis, Thurston etc.

He is a superstar athlete and has a charisma that has never before been seen in the NRL
x 100.
This is it in a nutshell, we should do whatever we can to keep him.
 

Dogmad

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what would meninga be worth today? Idris must be re-signed as he can play backrow, prop and centre. he plays aggressive and isnt intimidated which is exactly what we need...
 
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