WHEN Denis Pagan saw the familiar, hulking figure of Carlton chief executive Greg Swann outside his office door yesterday morning, he knew what was coming.
Carlton coach Denis Pagan during Carlton v Hawthorn AFL game
As the coach said, in typical Paganese: "I reckon I have been around the block a few times. I am no dill."
By that stage, the club president Richard Pratt and the Carlton board had met and decided Pagan's goose was cooked. Swann was the uncomfortable messenger and Pagan, for all his philosophical reflections offered at a later press conference, was deeply disappointed with the news.
Pagan has been a football coach for the best part of 30 years. He has been a very good one, leading the Kangaroos to two premierships and eight successive finals appearances in a remarkable era of sustained success. Before that, his U19 teams for North Melbourne were nigh unbeatable and he won a premiership coaching the Essendon reserves in his only year at Windy Hill.
Swann described him as a legend of the game.
But even when you have been around for this long and enjoyed the rewards Pagan has, it is not easy to be told your career is over.
While Pagan may still see himself as a prospective senior coach it is unlikely another club ever will.
Pagan turns 60 in September, a football month as remote from Carlton today as it was nearly five years ago when he was seduced by John Elliott, an enormous salary and the chance to command one of the powerful Victorian clubs.
The promise of great riches - or indeed power - was never fully realised as successive administrations sought to cut Pagan's wage and Carlton teams bore the brunt of Elliott's shameless salary cap cheating. As this was happening, coaching, like football, was quickly becoming a young man's game. Just like the bloke who hired him, Pagan is now seen as yesterday's man.
From the moment Carlton trudged off the Gabba on Sunday afternoon having surrendered 25 goals to Brisbane, Pagan's fate was sealed. But as Swann let slip yesterday, the club's dramatically deteriorating results had all but finalised the decision two weeks earlier.
All that was left was for Carlton to give its coach a dignified exit.
In stark contrast to the ham-fisted effort of the previous administration at the end of last season, when Pagan was effectively sacked and reinstated in 24 hours, Carlton ended it quickly and cleanly.
When asked how history would judge his time at Carlton, Pagan was blunt: "Not very well."
He described himself as the coach of the club's bleakest period. Certainly, he can take no comfort from the win-loss numbers that serve as the vital sign for any AFL coach. From 104 games coached, Pagan won just 25. In his last two years, Carlton won a miserable seven.
In the tradition of sacked coaches, Pagan was given time to address his staff and players before the club announced his departure. As the players reported to Princes Park for their unscheduled meeting, several claimed to have no idea what was being announced. Pagan didn't keep them long and most left stony faced.
More than one assistant coach cried in Pagan's office. Clubs are built on passionate loyalties but there is also self-interest. Some assistants will look for work once a replacement coach is appointed.
Pagan had no answer for why his team had fallen away so badly in recent weeks but didn't blame the players. He expressed no bitterness towards the club for showing him the door and reiterated he never would have left on his own accord. He is contracted for next season and will be paid out.
Invited to sheet blame for his results on the loss of draft picks in the 2002 and 2003 drafts, resulting from the club's salary cap rorting, Pagan declined, insisting he arrived at the club with his eyes wide open. The one excuse he cited was this year's season-ending neck injury to Nick Stevens, which he said had a domino effect on his young midfield.
"I am not blaming anybody," Pagan said. "I am a big boy. I understand what I get myself into. I know how tough this job is. It didn't work out. The buck stops with the coach."
Carlton finished last the year Pagan took over and will finish in the bottom three this year. The football cycle dictates that bottom finishes and early draft picks - AFL penalties notwithstanding - should be pushing the Blues up the ladder by now. But aside from a couple of false dawns, most recently at the start of this year when Carlton won the pre-season competition, it is difficult to see where the club has improved from the day Pagan walked into Elliott's office.
Like Kevin Sheedy, whose tenure beyond this season is still to be decided by the Essendon board, Pagan has tried to keep his coaching fresh and open to new ideas.
At the Kangaroos, Pagan built a simple, effective game plan tailor-made for the extraordinary talents of Wayne Carey. At Carlton, he tried a version of Pagan's paddock then converted, reluctantly, to the school of possession football. This season, he shelved the possession game for longer kicking, high-risk ball movement and one-on-one defence.
The net result was high scoring and the worst defensive team in the modern era. Pagan yesterday maintained it was the best game plan for a developing team but earlier this year, he conceded it was no recipe for finals success.
"We can make a lot about strategies and tactics but the most important principle in football is to win the ball," he said. "That hasn't changed in my time." That much is certainly true. Carlton has gained fewer possessions than any other team this year.
Pagan claims to have no regrets about leaving the Kangaroos and yesterday expressed his gratitude at being given the opportunity to coach Carlton, "one of the great sporting clubs of the country".
Carlton is perhaps no closer, after five years under Pagan, to becoming that great club again. But criticism of Pagan should be tempered by one question: would another coach have done any better?
