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(ALL THREADS MERGED : Edited after Rd24 Friday night - Dragons loss to Brisbane : Original thread created about 10 rounds ago)
Yes, yes it's early. And yeah we're gonna jinx it, blah, blah, blah !
That's why I put "Discussion" in the title ! You know .... so we can "discuss" the possibilities. If you dont like it, kidnly STFU and GTFO !
Before the rest of us begin, let us re-establish some facts.
• We have a 9-3 record.
• We are undefeated at home.
• We have 6 more 'home games' at ANZ, with one 'home' game at Suncorp to go.
• We have exhausted our Bye allocation for 2009.
• We have 12 more matches to play until finals.
• We require 5 more wins to make the unofficial 30-point Top-8 cut-off.
Now - In other threads it has been suggested we may lose as few as 3 games for the remainder of the year. Perhaps as many as six losses.
This places us between 34-40pts at the end of the year and within reach of the minor premiership. The average over the last decade has been 40.55 Pts.
2008 → 3 Teams finished on 38pts last year (17-7 : 2x Bye). Melbourne won on F/A.
2007 → Melbourne 44pts (21-3 : 1x Bye)
2006 → Melbourne 44pts (20-4 : 2x Bye)
2005 → Parramatta by F/A 36pts (16-8 : 2x Bye)
2004 → Roosters by F/A 42 pts (19-5 : 2x Bye)
2003 → Penrith 40pts (18-6 : 2x Bye)
2002 → Warriors by F/A 38pts (17-7 : 2x Bye)
(Bulldogs would have finished on 41pts with a 20-1-3 record.)
2001 → Parramatta 42pts (20-2-4)
2000 → Brisbane 38pts (18-2-6)
At Rd14, with games to go, the ladder looks like this below - Pay attention to the loss column.
View attachment 14902
I reckon, (despite the two-points OFF) if those teams on 4 Losses currently lose another one each, that little buffer in the "L" column goes along way toward us claiming the cash !
The biggest threats to us are those with 1-2 more losses than us.
Having said that, early Byes have worked to our advantage - We have "Games in hand" which means we can dictate the result, and NOT "hope results go our way" like those under us on the table will be doing.
Next week ...
Bulldogs V Penrith - Lewis injured. Jennings 50/50. Both weakened by SOO2.
Cowboys V Roosters - NQ weakened by SOO2.
Melbourne V Wests - Storm weakened by SOO2. Wests needs a win.
Manly V Canberra - If Manly wins by 8 or more, they enter the Top 8, and enjoy a Bye next week.
Cronulla V Brisbane - Broncos weakened by SOO2. Cronulla on a 3-game streak, may lose Gallen to SOO.
Week after ...
Bullogs V Cowboys - 2 day SOO turnaround. 7 days for Dogs. 6 days for NQ.
Wests V St Merge - 2 day SOO turnaround. 6 days for WT. 12 days for SGI.
Titans V Warriors - 3 day SOO turnaround. 14 days GCT. 15 days NZW.
Roosters V Cronulla - Wooden Spoon Battle Hahahahahaha !
Canberra V Melbourne - 4 day SOO turnaround. Both squads 7 days.
Parramatta V Brisbane - 4 day SOO turnaround. 14 days for PAR. 6 days for BB.
Newcastle V Souths - 5 day SOO turnaround. 16 days for SS. 17 days for NK (coming off a VG win to us, then two bad losses - Far too lng away to think about it IMO)
Our immediate task :
• Beat Penrith next week and increase the gap with them to 4 games.
• Beat Cowboys the week after and widen the gap with them to 4 games.
• Hope Canberra beats a tired Melbourne in that same week, after SOO2, and widen that gap for us too.
The games to watch for us :
• Rd 17 - Melbourne V Newcastle
• Rd 20 - Gold Coast v Brisbane
• Rd 20 - Cowboys V Penrith
• Rd 21 - Dragons V Melbourne
• Rd 21 - Gold Coast V North Queensland
• Rd 22 - Penrith V St Merge
• Rd 22 - Melbourne V Cowboys
• Rd 23 - Brisbane v Penrith
• Rd 23 - Cowboys v Bulldogs
• Rd 23 - Newcastle V Melbourne
• Rd 24 - St Merge V Brisbane
• Rd 25 - Cowboys V Brisbane
Yes, yes it's early. And yeah we're gonna jinx it, blah, blah, blah !
That's why I put "Discussion" in the title ! You know .... so we can "discuss" the possibilities. If you dont like it, kidnly STFU and GTFO !
Before the rest of us begin, let us re-establish some facts.
• We have a 9-3 record.
• We are undefeated at home.
• We have 6 more 'home games' at ANZ, with one 'home' game at Suncorp to go.
• We have exhausted our Bye allocation for 2009.
• We have 12 more matches to play until finals.
• We require 5 more wins to make the unofficial 30-point Top-8 cut-off.
Now - In other threads it has been suggested we may lose as few as 3 games for the remainder of the year. Perhaps as many as six losses.
This places us between 34-40pts at the end of the year and within reach of the minor premiership. The average over the last decade has been 40.55 Pts.
2008 → 3 Teams finished on 38pts last year (17-7 : 2x Bye). Melbourne won on F/A.
2007 → Melbourne 44pts (21-3 : 1x Bye)
2006 → Melbourne 44pts (20-4 : 2x Bye)
2005 → Parramatta by F/A 36pts (16-8 : 2x Bye)
2004 → Roosters by F/A 42 pts (19-5 : 2x Bye)
2003 → Penrith 40pts (18-6 : 2x Bye)
2002 → Warriors by F/A 38pts (17-7 : 2x Bye)
(Bulldogs would have finished on 41pts with a 20-1-3 record.)
2001 → Parramatta 42pts (20-2-4)
2000 → Brisbane 38pts (18-2-6)
At Rd14, with games to go, the ladder looks like this below - Pay attention to the loss column.
View attachment 14902
I reckon, (despite the two-points OFF) if those teams on 4 Losses currently lose another one each, that little buffer in the "L" column goes along way toward us claiming the cash !
The biggest threats to us are those with 1-2 more losses than us.
Having said that, early Byes have worked to our advantage - We have "Games in hand" which means we can dictate the result, and NOT "hope results go our way" like those under us on the table will be doing.
Next week ...
Bulldogs V Penrith - Lewis injured. Jennings 50/50. Both weakened by SOO2.
Cowboys V Roosters - NQ weakened by SOO2.
Melbourne V Wests - Storm weakened by SOO2. Wests needs a win.
Manly V Canberra - If Manly wins by 8 or more, they enter the Top 8, and enjoy a Bye next week.
Cronulla V Brisbane - Broncos weakened by SOO2. Cronulla on a 3-game streak, may lose Gallen to SOO.
Week after ...
Bullogs V Cowboys - 2 day SOO turnaround. 7 days for Dogs. 6 days for NQ.
Wests V St Merge - 2 day SOO turnaround. 6 days for WT. 12 days for SGI.
Titans V Warriors - 3 day SOO turnaround. 14 days GCT. 15 days NZW.
Roosters V Cronulla - Wooden Spoon Battle Hahahahahaha !
Canberra V Melbourne - 4 day SOO turnaround. Both squads 7 days.
Parramatta V Brisbane - 4 day SOO turnaround. 14 days for PAR. 6 days for BB.
Newcastle V Souths - 5 day SOO turnaround. 16 days for SS. 17 days for NK (coming off a VG win to us, then two bad losses - Far too lng away to think about it IMO)
Our immediate task :
• Beat Penrith next week and increase the gap with them to 4 games.
• Beat Cowboys the week after and widen the gap with them to 4 games.
• Hope Canberra beats a tired Melbourne in that same week, after SOO2, and widen that gap for us too.
The games to watch for us :
• Rd 17 - Melbourne V Newcastle
• Rd 20 - Gold Coast v Brisbane
• Rd 20 - Cowboys V Penrith
• Rd 21 - Dragons V Melbourne
• Rd 21 - Gold Coast V North Queensland
• Rd 22 - Penrith V St Merge
• Rd 22 - Melbourne V Cowboys
• Rd 23 - Brisbane v Penrith
• Rd 23 - Cowboys v Bulldogs
• Rd 23 - Newcastle V Melbourne
• Rd 24 - St Merge V Brisbane
• Rd 25 - Cowboys V Brisbane
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