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Is rugby league dying? The never-before-released numbers that have NRL powerbrokers concerned
These are the never-before-released figures the NRL and the ARL Commission were presented before enforcing one of the most controversial crackdowns in rugby league history last week.
NRL administration has previously sugarcoated participation figures by including touch football and LeagueTag numbers alongside registered tackle players. Under the Peter V'landys and Andrew Abdo regime, the NRL has promised total transparency.
It is why, in light of the recent concussion crackdown, the Herald this week approached the NRL and requested it open the books and provide the unfiltered numbers that some at headquarters are now referencing as a partial motivator for the Magic Round high-tackle blitz.
The Herald can reveal the greatest concern is the loss of close to 12,000 male tackle rugby league participants in Australia since 2015 (an 8 per cent drop).
The NSWRL is doing a better job at stemming the flow but there are still 4000 less male participants in NSW over the same period, resulting in a 5 per cent decrease in boys and men's registered players in the state.
"To be totally transparent, we have spent tens of millions of dollars trying to increase participation," V'landys said.
"The investment at this stage is not returning what it should. Of course, it's a concern. That's why the commission made it one of its number one priorities. I'm confident the strategies of the NSWRL, QRL and NRL will reverse the trend.
"Talking to parents I've spoken to, they are concerned about their kids getting hurt. That's why I want to stress to these parents that junior rugby league is safe.
"People shouldn't look at the NRL and consider it exactly the same. We're going to educate people that junior rugby league is safe. Kids can get off their video machines and off their devices and start playing rugby league."
The heartland of rugby league has been hardest hit. In Parramatta (second largest district) there has been a whopping 26 per cent decline in male tackle participation since 2015.
Western Suburbs, in south-west Sydney, with a booming population growth, has experienced an 18 per cent decline. It's important to note, however, that final 2021 figures are forecast to be boosted by the end of the season.
In Penrith there has been a decrease of around 800 male rugby league players over the past six years. That's been offset by an increase of around 800 female players over that period to show a trend of stabilisation.
Country NSW numbers haven't dropped overall despite recent criticism in the media. But there are regions of concern - especially in western and north-western NSW. There has been a notable participation rise, however, of about 600 new male players in the NSW North Coast region.
While the game is buoyed by the growth of female tackle numbers (137 per cent increase in Australia and 198 per cent increase in NSW), the drop-off in male participants has rung alarm bells around the code, which wants registrations to increase at the rate of population growth.
Kayla Burns, whose son Bryson plays under 6's for the Glenmore Park Brumbies in the Penrith district, admitted the NRL was the shopfront for junior rugby league.
"I'm all for the rules being enforced. I like the rule, I think it is fantastic," Burns said.
"Maybe they've gone a little too hard, too fast with enforcing it, how does someone who's been playing the game for 20 years change overnight? They also need to be a little more considerate of accidental versus intentional.
"However, from a mother's point of view, it does make me feel a little bit better about him playing football. I've always had reservations about him playing because of the head injuries but the benefit of football and the resilience and mateship it brings outweighs the reservation.
"My brother-in-law had a fractured skull when he was 16 that ended his career so, to our family, it means a lot to us that these rules are being enforced."
A detailed analysis of participation figures in the Penrith and District Junior Rugby League show a worrying trend when it comes to male teenagers playing the contact version of the sport.
Male participation numbers for players between the ages of three and 12 in 2021 (year to date) are on track to surpass the numbers from 2015.
However, there is an alarming drop when males hit the teenage years. In 2015 there were 1750 male players between the ages of 13 and 15 in Penrith, but that figure dropped by 300 in 2018.
The same trends are evident for the 16-18 year-old male category and the 19-years plus male category. That trend is replicated across the state. It's a different story when it comes to females.
The teenage drop-off concerns have forced the NRL to hire two principals from NSW and Queensland to begin direct relationships with the education departments to infiltrate schools across the country.
If you include LeagueTag numbers (around 16,000 in NSW in 2021) in the game's participation figures, there is an argument that can be made that more people are playing the sport than they did half a decade ago.
LeagueTag has been rolled out across rugby league clubs around the country to provide a non-contact option, an initiative that reflects the game's willingness to evolve with the times.
NSWRL boss Dave Trodden said the LeagueTag numbers should not be discarded.
"The contact is the thing that distinguishes our sport from a lot of other sports," he said. "Having said that, contact is not for everyone.
"Our philosophy is that we try to keep people playing whatever form of the game they are comfortable in playing for as long as we can keep them playing it and keep them part of the rugby league family."
In 2021, with a few months remaining in the season, there are more tackle participants than there were after the 2019 season. But Abdo insists you can't ignore the trend.
"Holding ground is not enough, we need to be moving forward and attracting significantly more juniors to our sport to ensure our game remains strong for future generations," Abdo said.
"Team participation, especially for contact sports, is a challenge. We know a lot of juniors are moving away from team sports and into more individual sports, as well as other forms of entertainment.
"We also know the challenges all contact sports face, which is why we have to rethink how we do things now."
N.B. There are graphs on the original article that wouldn't transfer over.
