KENNY-DOWALL
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ONE of Australia's best form students has predicted a 125/1 outsider can end the Makybe Diva dream and become the longest-priced Melbourne Cup winner ever at Flemington today.
Mark Morrissey, from Col Tidy's Betchoice, has declared unknown Umbula ready to produce the biggest upset in the race's 144-year history.
Umbula is at $126 with TAB Fixed Odds in overnight markets. The record for the longest-priced Cup winner is held jointly by The Pearl (1871), Wotan (1936) and Old Rowley (1940) who all started at 100/1.
"Any professional punter will tell you the key to gambling is about getting over the odds. I've marked this horse as a 12/1 chance and you can get 10 times those odds at the moment," Morrissey said.
"He's far from the best horse in the race but he'll sit on the pace out of trouble, has no weight and has run some blinders at Flemington."
Morrissey said six-year-old Umbula has taken longer than most to mature and is now realising his potential.
"His last six runs or so have been far superior to what he showed as a younger horse and I'm predicting he finds a new peak in this race," he continued.
"I've wanted to back him in the Melbourne Cup since he won a midweek race in late July at Flemington by six lengths.
"The others were a fairly ordinary bunch but he clocked his last 200 in 11.65s, only bettered by the winner of a 1000m that day.
"He actually ran his last 1000m sectional only three tenths slower than the sprint race's overall time, which are extraordinary sectionals of a 2690m race."
Umbula qualified for the Melbourne Cup with a tough win in the Moonee Valley Cup last start.
The horse's effort was largely ignored but Morrissey again noted there was plenty of merit in the effort.
"You have to take into account it was only his third run in from a 58-day break and he was giving weight away to Bazelle and Kindjhal," Morrissey said. "He won't know himself with 51kg in the Melbourne Cup, the lightest weight he's carried in his 42 career starts."
Morrissey's fearless forecasts have been remarkably accurate during the Melbourne spring carnival. He said eventual winner Railings was a "certainty" in the Caulfield Cup, rated Lotteria ($34) the only danger to Makybe Diva in the Cox Plate, and had Headturner on top in his Derby ratings only for that horse to finish a desperately unlucky third.
Umbula's trainer Mick Price has only had one previous Melbourne Cup runner when Toll Bell led for home in 1994 and then dropped out to finish 21st.
Price was buoyed by the news the nation's leading form guru rates Umbula as a winning chance today.
"Gee, I hope he's right," Price said. "I know he is at big odds and I'm realistic about his chances but I do think he can run a competitive race.
"He is in fantastic condition and ready to run the race of his life. He will take a very forward position in the field, he's the type of horse that gets on the bridle, and he does have a light weight.
"When he won at Flemington over 2690m in the winter, I told the owners then we had a maturing stayer and it was worth trying to go for the Melbourne Cup."
Mark Morrissey, from Col Tidy's Betchoice, has declared unknown Umbula ready to produce the biggest upset in the race's 144-year history.
Umbula is at $126 with TAB Fixed Odds in overnight markets. The record for the longest-priced Cup winner is held jointly by The Pearl (1871), Wotan (1936) and Old Rowley (1940) who all started at 100/1.
"Any professional punter will tell you the key to gambling is about getting over the odds. I've marked this horse as a 12/1 chance and you can get 10 times those odds at the moment," Morrissey said.
"He's far from the best horse in the race but he'll sit on the pace out of trouble, has no weight and has run some blinders at Flemington."
Morrissey said six-year-old Umbula has taken longer than most to mature and is now realising his potential.
"His last six runs or so have been far superior to what he showed as a younger horse and I'm predicting he finds a new peak in this race," he continued.
"I've wanted to back him in the Melbourne Cup since he won a midweek race in late July at Flemington by six lengths.
"The others were a fairly ordinary bunch but he clocked his last 200 in 11.65s, only bettered by the winner of a 1000m that day.
"He actually ran his last 1000m sectional only three tenths slower than the sprint race's overall time, which are extraordinary sectionals of a 2690m race."
Umbula qualified for the Melbourne Cup with a tough win in the Moonee Valley Cup last start.
The horse's effort was largely ignored but Morrissey again noted there was plenty of merit in the effort.
"You have to take into account it was only his third run in from a 58-day break and he was giving weight away to Bazelle and Kindjhal," Morrissey said. "He won't know himself with 51kg in the Melbourne Cup, the lightest weight he's carried in his 42 career starts."
Morrissey's fearless forecasts have been remarkably accurate during the Melbourne spring carnival. He said eventual winner Railings was a "certainty" in the Caulfield Cup, rated Lotteria ($34) the only danger to Makybe Diva in the Cox Plate, and had Headturner on top in his Derby ratings only for that horse to finish a desperately unlucky third.
Umbula's trainer Mick Price has only had one previous Melbourne Cup runner when Toll Bell led for home in 1994 and then dropped out to finish 21st.
Price was buoyed by the news the nation's leading form guru rates Umbula as a winning chance today.
"Gee, I hope he's right," Price said. "I know he is at big odds and I'm realistic about his chances but I do think he can run a competitive race.
"He is in fantastic condition and ready to run the race of his life. He will take a very forward position in the field, he's the type of horse that gets on the bridle, and he does have a light weight.
"When he won at Flemington over 2690m in the winter, I told the owners then we had a maturing stayer and it was worth trying to go for the Melbourne Cup."
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