Coronavirus.

Status
Not open for further replies.
Alan79

Alan79

Kennel Legend
Joined
Mar 10, 2007
Messages
13,374
Reaction score
19,502
Abu Azrael said:
My son and I have all the symptoms of the corona virus..bit worried but I have over 80 rolls of toilet paper so I should be sweet right?
Click to expand...
Get off the bloody kennel or we'll all have it.
 
Blue_boost

Blue_boost

Kennel Enthusiast
Joined
May 19, 2014
Messages
4,073
Reaction score
2,257
Heckler said:
View attachment 13468
Click to expand...
I don't get fooled by this silly post above, I dont fall for hysteria. I'll take my chances with my 130 roll inventory.

I was as hiding a roll of toilet paper and almost dropped it in the toilet. But with my instincts and agility of a jungle cat I caught it before it dropped in the toilet.... Can't waste toilet paper only 130 rolls left.
 
Wahesh

Wahesh

The Forefather of The Kennel
Joined
Dec 6, 2007
Messages
24,844
Reaction score
12,156
Blue_boost said:
I don't get fooled by this silly post above, I dont fall for hysteria. I'll take my chances with my 130 roll inventory.

I was as hiding a roll of toilet paper and almost dropped it in the toilet. But with my instincts and agility of a jungle cat I caught it before it dropped in the toilet.... Can't waste toilet paper only 130 rolls left.
Click to expand...
130 rolls? Do you know that if we went into lockdown, it would be for 2 weeks which is the current quarantine period.

Do you know how many rolls the average family uses in 2 weeks? 15.

Goodluck thinking you're a smart person for stocking up. You're part of the panic buying problem!
 
A

Alexander the Great

Guest

I have posted this before but here again for anyone wanting to get a few more kms from the stash they have already
 
Hacky McAxe

Hacky McAxe

Super Moderator
Staff member
Moderator
Gilded
Joined
May 7, 2011
Messages
37,148
Reaction score
29,643
Dawgfather said:
@Hacky McAxe - were you being serious when you said Australia will have between 50,000 and 250,000 deaths? Or just trying to troll the people in this thread?
Click to expand...
Seriously. But it's a very loose figure. The 50,000 - 250,000 is based on mathematical calculations by epidemiologists based on what we currently know about the virus. But there's so much we don't know and so many variables that could drastically change the figures.

For example, the current calculation from the WHO is that the virus has around a 3.4% kill rate. But much of that is based in China where conditions aren't ideal. But the virus is currently having a higher than average kill rate in Italy where there is good hospitalisation so there's another factor that's influencing it that we don't know about.

Then there's the fact that the kill rate goes up exponentially after you turn 50 (14 - 50%). Then there's the fact that it doesn't really affect school age children. They still get the virus (CoVID-19) but they don't get the syndrome (SARS2). Which means that have a death rate of nearly 0%, but due to being asymptomatic, they can spread it easily.

So the number could be much higher, or much lower.
 
Hacky McAxe

Hacky McAxe

Super Moderator
Staff member
Moderator
Gilded
Joined
May 7, 2011
Messages
37,148
Reaction score
29,643
D

Dawgfather

Banned
Joined
Nov 28, 2003
Messages
8,835
Reaction score
1,900
Hacky McAxe said:
Seriously. But it's a very loose figure. The 50,000 - 250,000 is based on mathematical calculations by epidemiologists based on what we currently know about the virus. But there's so much we don't know and so many variables that could drastically change the figures.

For example, the current calculation from the WHO is that the virus has around a 3.4% kill rate. But much of that is based in China where conditions aren't ideal. But the virus is currently having a higher than average kill rate in Italy where there is good hospitalisation so there's another factor that's influencing it that we don't know about.

Then there's the fact that the kill rate goes up exponentially after you turn 50 (14 - 50%). Then there's the fact that it doesn't really affect school age children. They still get the virus (CoVID-19) but they don't get the syndrome (SARS2). Which means that have a death rate of nearly 0%, but due to being asymptomatic, they can spread it easily.

So the number could be much higher, or much lower.
Click to expand...
Even in all of China there is just on 3000 people killed. How are you proposing that tiny Australia is going to end up with 50,000 dead?

I know these are 'experts' predicting this, but all the experts also predicted Trump had no chance. They also predicted that if he won, the US stock exchange was going to blow up, and many other failed predictions.

I'm no expert, but if even 1000 people die in Australia I will sell you my left testicle.
 
Hacky McAxe

Hacky McAxe

Super Moderator
Staff member
Moderator
Gilded
Joined
May 7, 2011
Messages
37,148
Reaction score
29,643
Dawgfather said:
Even in all of China there is just on 3000 people killed. How are you proposing that tiny Australia is going to end up with 50,000 dead?

I know these are 'experts' predicting this, but all the experts also predicted Trump had no chance. They also predicted that if he won, the US stock exchange was going to blow up, and many other failed predictions.

I'm no expert, but if even 1000 people die in Australia I will sell you my left testicle.
Click to expand...
Simple calculations. High probability that it'll spread to at least 40% of the population. Death rate of at least 1%. That's over 90,000 in Australia.

Of course it may not spread. Good quarantine measures may stop it in its tracks.

But that may also not be accurate, as a large number of cases are asymptomatic or written off as something else. In America there's over 500 cases, a majority of those in Seattle. But the experts are saying that there's likely to be over 1,000 cases in Seattle that haven't been picked up.

Main problem being that it's hard to test for. New York developed a test and started using it on mass and the test turned out to be faulty.

So there's always a chance that the kill rate is much lower than current measurements.
 
Hacky McAxe

Hacky McAxe

Super Moderator
Staff member
Moderator
Gilded
Joined
May 7, 2011
Messages
37,148
Reaction score
29,643
Side note, I'll pass on the testicle. 3 is enough for me.
 
Hacky McAxe

Hacky McAxe

Super Moderator
Staff member
Moderator
Gilded
Joined
May 7, 2011
Messages
37,148
Reaction score
29,643
south of heaven

south of heaven

Kennel Immortal
Premium Member
Joined
Mar 6, 2014
Messages
29,254
Reaction score
25,704
D

Dawgfather

Banned
Joined
Nov 28, 2003
Messages
8,835
Reaction score
1,900
Hacky McAxe said:
Simple calculations. High probability that it'll spread to at least 40% of the population. Death rate of at least 1%. That's over 90,000 in Australia.

Of course it may not spread. Good quarantine measures may stop it in its tracks.

But that may also not be accurate, as a large number of cases are asymptomatic or written off as something else. In America there's over 500 cases, a majority of those in Seattle. But the experts are saying that there's likely to be over 1,000 cases in Seattle that haven't been picked up.

Main problem being that it's hard to test for. New York developed a test and started using it on mass and the test turned out to be faulty.

So there's always a chance that the kill rate is much lower than current measurements.
Click to expand...
My interpretation of everything you've just said is as follows:

There is an enormous amount of uncertainty. No one really knows what will happen with number of infections or number of deaths.

So why are people putting out numbers like 50,000-250,000 people could die in Australia when there is clearly no certainty behind those figures. Completely made up.

It's no wonder that some people are acting like total bogans and selfish individuals and having fights in supermarkets.

Personally, the approach I take is to look at China and then apply some reasonable thought processes for what may eventuate in Australia

Upside:
- Temperatures in Aus never get as cold as China / many northern hemisphere countries - therefore good chance that transmission within Australia will be at drasticly reduced rates (this factor had at least some impact on SARS in 2003).
- There were so many initial transmissions and deaths in Wuhan because the Chinese Govt buried their heads in the sand. They made matters worse when they effectively isolated a city 1.5 times the size of Sydney and left them without adequate medical/hospital care for a period. This is unlikely to happen in Australia due to the Governments serious approach to infections when they arise.
- Far lower population densities in most Australian suburbs than China
- Far greater hygeine standards in Australia compared to China
- Lessons learned from China are able to be applied in a more timely manner in Australia so better care and quarantining of patients when they are identified

Downside:
- Democratic system of government / 'softly softly' approach by government may not be strict enough to adequately quarantine cases when they arise.
- Government may not be responsive enough / tough enough in relation to travel restrictions from other countries

Overall, I think the upsides for Australia outweigh the downsides and on that basis I personally think the deaths will be far lower in Australia. This virus has been getting around for a while now (at least weeks if not more than 1+ month), yet it is only responsible for 3 deaths.
 
D

Dawgfather

Banned
Joined
Nov 28, 2003
Messages
8,835
Reaction score
1,900
Hacky McAxe said:
This article covers a lot of what is currently going on with the projections and the difficulty they're having with projections based on the limited information they have. But the projections they have is:

Best case - 10's of thousands

Worst case - 10 million

As I said. Too difficult to get accurate measures right now.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-ma...rus-epidemiologists-model-answers-11583538443
Click to expand...
Think you need to be a member to view all that artcile, so I couldn't read it.
 
Hacky McAxe

Hacky McAxe

Super Moderator
Staff member
Moderator
Gilded
Joined
May 7, 2011
Messages
37,148
Reaction score
29,643
Dawgfather said:
My interpretation of everything you've just said is as follows:

There is an enormous amount of uncertainty. No one really knows what will happen with number of infections or number of deaths.

So why are people putting out numbers like 50,000-250,000 people could die in Australia when there is clearly no certainty behind those figures. Completely made up.

It's no wonder that some people are acting like total bogans and selfish individuals and having fights in supermarkets.

Personally, the approach I take is to look at China and then apply some reasonable thought processes for what may eventuate in Australia

Upside:
- Temperatures in Aus never get as cold as China / many northern hemisphere countries - therefore good chance that transmission within Australia will be at drasticly reduced rates (this factor had at least some impact on SARS in 2003).
- There were so many initial transmissions and deaths in Wuhan because the Chinese Govt buried their heads in the sand. They made matters worse when they effectively isolated a city 1.5 times the size of Sydney and left them without adequate medical/hospital care for a period. This is unlikely to happen in Australia due to the Governments serious approach to infections when they arise.
- Far lower population densities in most Australian suburbs than China
- Far greater hygeine standards in Australia compared to China
- Lessons learned from China are able to be applied in a more timely manner in Australia so better care and quarantining of patients when they are identified

Downside:
- Democratic system of government / 'softly softly' approach by government may not be strict enough to adequately quarantine cases when they arise.
- Government may not be responsive enough / tough enough in relation to travel restrictions from other countries

Overall, I think the upsides for Australia outweigh the downsides and on that basis I personally think the deaths will be far lower in Australia. This virus has been getting around for a while now (at least weeks if not more than 1+ month), yet it is only responsible for 3 deaths.
Click to expand...
Most of those points should protect countries like Italy and USA too, but it's spreading pretty fast in both places.

What some of the epidemiologists were saying is that they expect to see blooms. It starts out with a slow spread them there's a sudden bloom. Like what's currently happening in Italy and Seattle.
 
Bitemarks

Bitemarks

mmm tasty ear
Joined
Oct 5, 2003
Messages
1,980
Reaction score
376
Hacky McAxe said:
Most of those points should protect countries like Italy and USA too, but it's spreading pretty fast in both places.

What some of the epidemiologists were saying is that they expect to see blooms. It starts out with a slow spread them there's a sudden bloom. Like what's currently happening in Italy and Seattle.
Click to expand...
Italy is a political basketcase, and has been so for many decades, they couldn't organize a root in a brothel. The US health system is a joke, where a large section of the population cannot afford hospital visits and will avoid due to the costs involved. The you have the president and his administration, which are a bunch of idiotic baboons.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top