Betting chat : Why does this sound too good to be true ?

[Captain Kickass]

Punters and betting tragics unite !!!

I need your help. I've been modelling some betting data in spreadsheets, and have stumbled across something my brain will no longer compute.

Run with me here ...

Golden Rule #1 = Never bet more than 5% of your balance : For the purposes of this chat I'm gonna start with $2000, and the basis of all of this is the rule that you can't bet more than 5% of what you have in your bank.

Golden rule #2 = Never accept odds lower than $1.71 : I will explain in greater detail in future posts but this is the 'break-even point'.

Golden rule #3 = Maximum 4 legs / System 3,4 : With this betting strategy, you are having 5x different bets. See the example below.

Bet "A" = Bulldogs +2.5 @$1.90
Bet "B" = Brisbane - 4.5 @ $1.90
Bet "C" = Melbourne -6.5 @ $1.90
Bet "D" = Roosters - 8.5 @ $1.90

Using System 3,4 you have ...
- 1x 4-leg bet (ABCD), and
- 4x 3-leg bets (ABC, ABD, ACD, BCD)
- For every $1 you bet, it costs $5 total.

****************************************************​

OK. Got your head around that ?
Let's get started.

- Lets say you have a bank of $2000, and the rules say we can only use 5%. That equates to $100.
- We've isolated four games we like, and we'll be having 5 bets in Week One using our System 3,4 strategy.
- If we spend $20 on each one, it costs $100 (or simply go a $100 flexi multi, and nominate System 3&4).

Results analysis ....

- At odds of $1.90 ... if we get 3 our of 4 correct, we make 1x return of $137.
- At odds of $1.90 ... if we get ALL four correct, we make 5x returns totaling $709.

Not a bad little return for $100 outlay.

Remember the golden rule of $1.71 odds or higher ? ... if you get 3 our of 4 correct at odds of $1.71, you will "break even".
(Let me repeat that bit ... get one wrong, and you get money back, as long as odds are $1.71 or higher)

Logic says those NRL line bets mentioned above are easily interchangeable with other sports so long as the odds never fall below $1.71. I could replace one or more of those legs with Man City, Fremantle Dockers, Brisbane Roar, or even some horse on the weekend for a 'place bet' ... and as long as odds dont fall blow our break-even point, the strategy is sound.

Here's what I can't compute ....

- Next, I ran three years of modelling based on the following cycle of results (out of four) -> 3,2,3,2,4,3,2,3 .... translated, this means in a cycle of 8 weeks, I assumed I'd got all correct once every 8 weeks (4/4), I got 1-wrong every 2nd week (3/4), and bombed out the other 3 weeks (2 or less).

- Extend that 8 week cycle across 3 years : By following the 5% of bankroll rule, by following the $1.71 odds or higher rule (in this example we're using line bets @ $1.90), and by sticking to no more than 4 legs using a System 3,4 strategy ... the $2000 we started with becomes $130,000 after 3 years.

So help me understand it all. Lets chat about why this all sounds 'too good to be true' ....

- It seems ot me this all boils down to "Are we as good a tipster as we think we are ?"
- Can you tip 4 correct bets in a week that are $1.71 or higher ?
- Can you get 4/4 once every 8 weeks ?

What am I missing here ?
Why does this sound too good to be true ?
What other contingencies can we employ to guarantee more insurance when we get one wrong ?
What other bet types could we use ?

Footnote : I put this to the test over the last 2 weekends.

(a) Took Man City, Tottenham, Southampton, Arsenal and got 3/4 correct. - Broke Even
(b) Took 4 runners for the place in horse racing but one got scratched. Others finished 2nd, 3rd, 2nd - Small Profit based on recalculated bet

 

[Wolfmother]

My head hurts

 

[The DoggFather]

May be too good to be true because sport is rigged? Or the agencies don't think we are great punters lol

 

[The DoggFather]

Whats the minimum bet you can work this system?

 

[Captain Kickass]

Whats the minimum bet you can work this system?

You 'could' do it with as little as $20.

- Start with "x" ($20)
- Bet 5% ($1)
- Using TAB speak, you want a "Flexi - System 3&4 Multi"
- Find 4 events you like that pay $1.71 or more.

If you spend $100 on your flexi, and you get all four correct ...
- At average odds are $1.71 ,you get back $571. : Get one wrong, you break even.
- At average odds are $1.90, you get back $709 : Get one wrong, you get back $137.

The maths says, if you bet on 4x NRL lines every week, you could go the first 6 weeks without getting 4/4 correct, and if you got it right in Round 7, you'd STILL be ahead.

My brain says : "Dude ! You could replace some of those legs with EPL, A-League, Euro Football, NFL, NBA, AFL, etc, etc, OR even have {insert racehorse name here} for a place bet .... How hard can it be to find four bets at $1.71 or more that I like ?"

 

[south of heaven]

Ok we all chip in ck and you make us rich

 

[Captain Kickass]

I've always liked the idea of going to a game and about 50 folks in the crowd all load up on the same first try scorer ... if it works just once, 50 people will have a story that sounds like "Hey man, remember when we all backed J.Moz to score first try and 50 of us cleaned up ?"

Anyhoo, I'm gonna keep beta-testing this.

NBA : Golden State -6.5 vs Chicago @ $1.90
A-League : Brisbane Roar vs Adelaide @ $2.10
Big-Bash : Perth Scorchers vs Melb stars @ $1.90
Big-Bash : Adelaide Strikers vs Syd Thunder @ $1.80

Tomic 3-0 vs Bolleli @ $2.10
Federer 3-0 vs Dimitrov @ $1.75
Simon 3-0 vs Delbonis @ $1.90
Svitolina 2-0 vs Osaka @ $2.00

 

[Rodzilla]

these line situations are like a coin flip, so the chances that you can get all 4 correct is like flipping 4 coins and getting 4 heads

getting 4 heads in 4 coinflips is 1/16 and getting 3 is 1/4, so you have 25% chance to break even and 31% chance to not lose

 

[The DoggFather]

I find your system very intriguing and wish to subscribe to your newsletter.

 

[The DoggFather]

these line situations are like a coin flip, so the chances that you can get all 4 correct is like flipping 4 coins and getting 4 heads

getting 4 heads in 4 coinflips is 1/16 and getting 3 is 1/4, so you have 25% chance to break even and 31% chance to not lose

More than a coin flip bro, as we have more of an idea the the line is possible IE Cowboys v Titans, logical thinking would suggest Cowboys will cover the line.

CK would this work on H2H option too?

 

[Rodzilla]

More than a coin flip bro, as we have more of an idea the the line is possible IE Cowboys v Titans, logical thinking would suggest Cowboys will cover the line.

CK would this work on H2H option too?

the bookmakers consider it the 50/50 chance of happening, so you have to be really good to overcome that disadvantage

and if you are that good then any system you do will work, even going through each game and putting single bets will work

 

[The DoggFather]

Fair enough.

 

[Rodzilla]

my recommendation is the martingale system with a very small starting bet (about 1% of what you are willing to lose or even less if you want a better chance), the problem is its very tedious and needs constant betting events

so lets say i start with $500, i start with a $2 bet and double it until i win and go back to $2, so i go $2, $4, $8, $16, $32, $64, $128, $256 until i win or lose all the money

im risking $500 to keep winning $2, but i back myself to always make at least 1 correct selection before losing 8 in a row

 

[LFC Bulldogs]

Gamble responsibly, don't gamble at all.

The house ALWAYS wins

 

[The DoggFather]

Gamble responsibly, don't gamble at all.

The house ALWAYS wins

Exactly, they ain't charities. ...

 

[south of heaven]

T it up ck , im in for $100

 

[Hacky McAxe]

Let's look at it this way. A simplistic bet. Say we have 8 teams playing each with a 50/50 chance of winning.

If we bet on one game we have:

50% chance of winning

We bet on two legs we have:

33.3333% chance of winning both games correct, 33.333% chance of getting 1 game correct, 33.333% chance of getting no games correct

We bet on 3 games:

25% chance of getting all games correct, 25% chance of getting 2/3 games correct, 25% chance of getting 1/3 games correct, 25% chance of getting no games correct

We bet on 4 games we have:

20% chance of getting all games correct, 20% chance of getting 3/4 games correct, 20% chance of getting 2/4 games correct, 20% chance of getting 1/4 games correct, 20% chance of getting no games correct.

So the 4 leg bet we have odds of 20%

The 3 leg bets each have odds of 25%

I'm guessing it would be something like $1.90 vs $2.20 in which case the odds would increase slightly. Effectively you'd be looking at about 22% for the 4 leg and 28% for the 3 leg.

If we rule out the 4 leg game we have odds of 28% per game which become exponential per game you are trying to win.

 

[Hacky McAxe]

BTW, I know bugger all about gambling but I need to run the statistics properly to give you the rough average of the odds on that, but they aren't very good.

 

[Moe]

See this is why kids needs to pay attention in mathematics in school.

If my teachers told me "one day you will use these skills for gambling on sporting events that you already love, to make yourself rich" I would have paid more attention. And by more, I mean some.

 

[Hacky McAxe]

Of my calculations are correct (which they rarely are)

You're looking at about a 7% of getting all 4 of the 3 legs correct, and roughly 14% chance of getting 3 of the 3 legs correct. This is without including the 4 leg game.