Realistically...how many years away are we from winning a premiership?

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bringitontm

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I wrote a formula that should how long it will take.

P=((Dy×2)+Np - (Lp×1.5))/(1+C)

Where P is premiership
Dy is Des years
Np is the number of plodders
Lp is plodders leaving.
C is the coaching staff improvment in % depending on how much better coach is than Des.

Therefore by my calculations lets assume we have 6 plodders and 4 leave and new coach is 60% better than Des...
P=((Dy×2)+Np - (Lp×1.5))/(1+C)
P=((5x2)+6 -(4×1.5))/1.6
P=6.25 years
 

EXPLORER

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Really sad. Let's look at the last couple of premiers:

2015 - nqld, paul green, 2nd year rookie coach
2014 - souths, madge, 3rd year rookie coach
2013 - Roosters, robinson, 1st year rookie coach.
Lol, shaking my head.
 

Trafford10

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The team needs rebuilding.

We need a fullback that can create try's as well as score them. We need halves that touch the ball and put players through gaps, also halves that kick. We need forwards that run straight and hard with support players. I haven't been on to bag lichaa too much but in all honesty we need a hooker that can run without being stuck in quicksand and who can pass the ball quicker from the ground. I was looking at him last night, he almost seems nervous when he is standing in the play the ball waiting for the ball to come out, he looks around, touches his shorts, makes fists with his hands. All the signs he is stressed.

Yet other players like smith, Hodgson etc have so much elegance and time, they look up once. See where they have numbers and pass the ball.

Hoppa has been very safe at the back, and he puts his body on the line almost every grubber, he dives head first into some situations that make me cring. And he does have a great football brain, but he has as much speed as a Paralympian. He should be put back to the wing. He can run the ball hard from dummy half and carries the ball well with hit ups. He is nothing more then a centre or winger.

Mbye is nothing more then a centre or fullback. I respect Reynolds because he tries every time he touches the ball, but he has no direction and very little ability (probably wouldn't help playing under the des structure for 5 years).

Tolman is done. He had something like 14 runs last night for 88 meters. He is almost an oxygen thief out there.

There are a lot of over paid players in the team not performing. Thankfully trex is done. That was 4 painful years. The club signs duds to massive contracts yet we miss out on decent players. Our recruitment is on the borderline insanity. Hopefully the news of crusher leaving is true.

Des came here to win a premiership and almost delivered. What has happened in the next 4 years is under achieving, a massive decline in attack, a soft defence, and problems with fitness (all issues attributed to a coach).

I know graham has been shocking this year (maybe even the last 2 years) but I still have respect for him because he takes loses seriously. He doesn't laugh, he didn't even want to shake burgess's hand last night. I respect him for his courage and pride in our jersey. My only hope is that it's the coaches systems that have ruined him and not his ability.

How you can have a 1.1 million dollar front row that can't even get you on a roll is beyond me.

Call up Aaron woods and get him over. Get rid of the dead weight at the club, sign a decent half, replace the hooker, restructure the backline with young fast players (between hoppa and the mozzes we have over 1.5 million in the backline, they haven't delivered 1.5 million in anything this year unfortunately).

Sad thing is everyone can see what we lack. Commentators, ex players, everyone knows we have problems. But 2-3 years on and nothing has changed at all.

Mbye 800k
Tolman/graham 1.1
Hoppa, twins 1.5+

How we spent so much for those players is beyond me... With the same money you could almost have Thurston, Scott and Tedesco, and still have left overs for a decent back or hooker.
Great post!!!
Is Mybe on $800k???
I thought it was $700k, now I feel even more aggrieved.
His performances the last two games have been a fucking disgrace.
 

DT

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Great post!!!
Is Mybe on $800k???
I thought it was $700k, now I feel even more aggrieved.
His performances the last two games have been a fucking disgrace.
I think you will find Mbye is not on the money some think he is...it's more like $600k but that is still way too high for potential and not much else.
Surely he could spend a few dollars and get a kicking expert to give him some pointers....his kicking game is woeful and I don't think I have ever seen a slower kicker in the games history.
 

Trafford10

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I think you will find Mbye is not on the money some think he is...it's more like $600k but that is still way too high for potential and not much else.
Surely he could spend a few dollars and get a kicking expert to give him some pointers....his kicking game is woeful and I don't think I have ever seen a slower kicker in the games history.
I have been very critical of him last few weeks.
I got called a **** on the forum last night because one person in particular keeps saying he is not being used as a halfback as he stands so wide etc etc.
Maybe, but his play yesterday and against the Cowboys at Belmore was and is totally unacceptable.
I hope you are right that his contract is more like $600k.
I honestly believe he can be a great player but not halfback.
He is s good young man.
 

Tazer

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Too win a premiership you need a decent spine. Atm the Dogs spine is very average. I would keep Hoppa at fullback and somehow get rid of Mbye and Licha......they've had their chance and failed to deliver. Move Reynolds to DH where I think he is much better suited tbh and buy a real organising halfback ala Adam Reynolds/Ash Taylor and running 5/8 (possibly Mbye.......he's much better when he just runs instead of trying to impersonate an organising half back....if not someone like Luke Keary or Milford). How long??....well I reckon at least 2 to 3 years.
 

boggie23

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Absolutely EVERYTHING Boggie23 said, I feel and the best analysis I have read.
My only slight difference of opinion is re the Morris boys. Brett is a game changer and Josh just hasn't been given any decent early ball since the Barba days. I keep them both where they are and change the halves.
M'Bye to FB. Train him up. He's quick and can pass
I still have respect for Graham as he's the only one who cares apart from Jackson and Klemmer and Reynolds.
Reynolds, I feel sorry for him as he does put in, but he's a Karl footballer.
The only negative thing I can say about borris (absolute gun player, easily the better brother of the 2 and still one of if not the best winger in the Comp 10 years on), his body hasn't been great in the past 2 years. I think he missed something like 12 weeks last year (or there abouts) and another 14 or 16 weeks this year.

When on the field he is our only player that looks dangerous. But in 2 full seasons he has only lined up 25 times for us. If he is getting 650k a year we have blown 1.3 million on him and got 25 games. If you break it per try its close to 70 grand a try. And I think he touched the ball something like 4 times last night.

He is a great player when fit and on the field. But we never use him. I don't even think we have done 1 cross field kick to him on the last. Same with jorris. He has scored I think 6 tries this year and had somewhere around 13 games he didn't even run for 100m. I know he doesn't get clean ball, but for a player that gets paid as much as him, we could almost get 2-3 21 year olds with speed and youth on their side (I think the twins are 31 this year).

Anyways Brett and josh are the least of our worries. Out of respect for what josh has done to the club you can't drop him. He came across and never left. But in saying that as a strike centre we under utilise him in attack. So many times on the 3rd, 4th or 5th tackle we are set up for something on the left, but we run a forward at the goal posts and then don't have any depth on either side for the next play.
 

Chris Harding

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I wrote a formula that should how long it will take.

P=((Dy×2)+Np - (Lp×1.5))/(1+C)

Where P is premiership
Dy is Des years
Np is the number of plodders
Lp is plodders leaving.
C is the coaching staff improvment in % depending on how much better coach is than Des.

Therefore by my calculations lets assume we have 6 plodders and 4 leave and new coach is 60% better than Des...
P=((Dy×2)+Np - (Lp×1.5))/(1+C)
P=((5x2)+6 -(4×1.5))/1.6
P=6.25 years
Clever. But the real formula is staring you in the face; it is:

One more year away from the last winning premiership. So, just add another year, each year - and so, on.
 
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