Coronavirus.

[Dawgfather]

Eh? Sorry mate, but this is a little bit of dribble. Most of those who died would've died in the next 12 months or so?

My next door neighbour passed away on Monday from COVID. Yes, he was old but at the same time a fucking fighter who wanted to live. No underlying conditions. Defo had nothing in the slightest that he would've died in the next 12 months or so. His last words were apparently "I don't want to die."

Think it's easy for people in Aus sometimes to talk about COVID like they know what's going on. I'm here in the middle of it, and I don't even fucking know. But that's a deadset crazy comment mate. Sorry.

You know your neighbours full health history and whether he has any conditions? That’s slightly creepy, or false.

 

[Tassie Devil]

You know your neighbours full health history and whether he has any conditions? That’s slightly creepy, or false.

I know what the doctors told their family. His wife had previously died of a seperate condition, so he was extremely nervous about going the same way with his children / grandchildren needing him. So he made it is complete focus to be healthy, with regular checkup, tests etc.

And I tend to trust doctors over drop kicks like you who don't live in the same country where all of this shit is happening.

 

[Dawgfather]

I know what the doctors told their family. His wife had previously died of a seperate condition, so he was extremely nervous about going the same way with his children / grandchildren needing him. So he made it is complete focus to be healthy, with regular checkup, tests etc.

And I tend to trust doctors over drop kicks like you who don't live in the same country where all of this shit is happening.

Any death is a tragedy, Including his of course. The vast majority of covid deaths are elderly with pre existing illnesses.

 

[Tassie Devil]

Can't understand how some on here are trying to claim that lockdowns don't work when they're a major contributor to why many states are close to being completely COVID tree. It's bizarre.

I know here it's working, in that the rates have dropped enough for us to hopefully allow our kids to go back to school in person. It's not the only factor of course but ...

 

[Tassie Devil]

Any death is a tragedy, Including his of course. The vast majority of covid deaths are elderly with pre existing illnesses.

So what if they have pre-existing illnesses? Does that mean anyone who has a pre-existing illness deserves to die? For all you know, a vast majority of these people could've gone on to live a further 10 + years of their lives. And been happy, along with their families etc.

This fixation on 'pre-existing illnesses' is so stupid in my mind.

It's like a person comes into the ER suffering a heart attack, and they look at his record and see he's had heart problems before. So ... it's OK that he dies. Why bother trying to keep him conscious if he's got a pre-existing condition.

 

[Dawgfather]

Can't understand how some on here are trying to claim that lockdowns don't work when they're a major contributor to why many states are close to being completely COVID tree. It's bizarre.

I know here it's working, in that the rates have dropped enough for us to hopefully allow our kids to go back to school in person. It's not the only factor of course but ...

They work for a short period before the spike happens again. As in England, Italy, Spain, list goes on.

 

[Dawgfather]

So what if they have pre-existing illnesses? Does that mean anyone who has a pre-existing illness deserves to die? For all you know, a vast majority of these people could've gone on to live a further 10 + years of their lives. And been happy, along with their families etc.

This fixation on 'pre-existing illnesses' is so stupid in my mind.

It's like a person comes into the ER suffering a heart attack, and they look at his record and see he's had heart problems before. So ... it's OK that he dies. Why bother trying to keep him conscious if he's got a pre-existing condition.

Of course it matters whether a disease discriminates based on factors such as age and existing illnesses. It allows us to tailor our responses to the illness.

If covid could kill healthy fit young ppl then it would genuinely be something worth fearing. But it doesn’t kill healthy fit Young ppl.

 

[Tassie Devil]

They work for a short period before the spike happens again. As in England, Italy, Spain, list goes on.

England. No one respected them. Not even the government.
Italy. Same as above. Surprisingly, the public have been worse by all accounts
Spain. I don't have personal knowledge on this so won't comment.

Lockdowns, especially in Europe, in my mind aren't about 'stopping' the virus as I doubt that's possible. In Slovenia at least, it's been about creating less stress on medical services so that they can help both those with corona and also other illnesses, injuries etc. Without a lockdown the hospitals would be completely overrun so we wouldn't be able to treat any conditions.

 

[Tassie Devil]

it doesn’t kill healthy fit Young ppl.

But it does? No where near the amount of 'unhealthy, old people' but still.

There's also the additional health problems associated with the virus that we still don't know the full extent of. BUt saying it only kills unhealthy old people is crazy. We both know that's not true.

 

[Dawgfather]

But it does? No where near the amount of 'unhealthy, old people' but still.

There's also the additional health problems associated with the virus that we still don't know the full extent of. BUt saying it only kills unhealthy old people is crazy. We both know that's not true.

This table shows the chance of dying if you catch covid at different age groups. If you are under 30 your chances of dying are next to none. Even if you are under 50 the chance of dying is very remote.

Once you get above 60 the risk increases but is still quite small.

 

[Dawgfather]

But it does? No where near the amount of 'unhealthy, old people' but still.

There's also the additional health problems associated with the virus that we still don't know the full extent of. BUt saying it only kills unhealthy old people is crazy. We both know that's not true.

“While coronavirus is obviously concerning and a very real threat to some people (namely, the elderly and immunocompromised), these data also show that the risk for the rest of the population is quite low.”

Coronavirus: COVID Deaths in U.S. by Age, Race

While coronavirus is obviously concerning and a very real threat to some people (namely, the elderly and immunocompromised), these data also show that the risk for the rest of the population is quite low.

www.acsh.org

 

[Dawgfather]

Some work has been done to calculate the percentage chance of dying if you catch covid.

Up to the age of 50, if you catch covid your chance of dying is somewhere in the vicinity of a hundredth of 1% (i.e earth shatteringly unlikely).

Coronavirus: COVID Deaths in U.S. by Age, Race

While coronavirus is obviously concerning and a very real threat to some people (namely, the elderly and immunocompromised), these data also show that the risk for the rest of the population is quite low.

www.acsh.org

 

[Tassie Devil]

“While coronavirus is obviously concerning and a very real threat to some people (namely, the elderly and immunocompromised), these data also show that the risk for the rest of the population is quite low.”

Coronavirus: COVID Deaths in U.S. by Age, Race

While coronavirus is obviously concerning and a very real threat to some people (namely, the elderly and immunocompromised), these data also show that the risk for the rest of the population is quite low.

www.acsh.org

Yes. But the information / data you're providing supports what I said.

You are wrong to state

But it doesn’t kill healthy fit Young ppl.

Because it does.

 

[DinkumDog]

it’s so easy

Er, the Guns N' Roses gags were earlier in the thread, keep up!

if they just did it the way you or one of our leaders suggested, the world would not have these problems right!
All those superpower European, British and American leaders just somehow couldn’t work it out but little Australia is supposedly some sort of genius when it comes to pandemics?

Huh? I spoke of SUPPRESSION, not CURE.
So, YES, if other places did a better suppression job, there mightn't be 265k dead Americans as an example.

Australia is in no way comparable. We have no land borders with other countries, we have a warm climate and some of the highest average sunshine hours per day (the virus does not get along well with UV light).

Jesus. UV. Trump 101. Do you drink bleach as well?
As for land borders - we have state borders and they were locked down - hence Melbourne's second wave was confined to Melbourne.
If you want to talk internationally, look at Ireland/Northern Ireland. Two seperate countries technically yes, but on an isolated 'island' (comparison to Australia). Northern Ireland follow British rules and the Republic Irish rules. In the Republic the virus is largely controlled - why? LOCKDOWN and SUPPRESSION. In the North? Rampant. Why? NO LOCKDOWN and NO SUPPRESSION when it counted.

We essentially have a handful of international airports and once you close them off to the world you have very very limited risks (unless you are completely negligent like the Vic govt). Compare this to America with countless international airports and ports.

And? It comes down to LEADERSHIP - not some moron crapping on about Red and Blue states and threatening to withhold a vaccine from the largest city in his country (NY) because he doesn't get along with a Democratic Governor who wasn't afraid to let everyone know how full of shit and how ineffective Donny's 'leadership' was. If Donny was remotely fair dinkum, he would've instituted a national lockdown - but he's too greedy for that - there's money to be made by 'opening up' let alone he was too much of a coward to make tough calls in an election year. It's not a stretch to say that if that happened months ago, America wouldn't be in shitter's ditch like it is. And as much as saying this makes me feel dirty, it might’ve even gotten him re-elected (ugh - I need a shower). Oh, but it's all going away by April isn't it? It's all going away in the warmer weather isn't it? I guess to you 2000 people dying a day is nothing because it's somehow related to how many die of heart disease or whatever. OK.

Plus land borders to the south of America (of which there is so much illegal immigration from Mexico that they can not accurately record the number of daily illegal border crossings).
Land borders to the north with Canada.

More Trump rhetoric. So you're effectively trying to blame Mexico and Canada for America's C-19 problem and absolving your idol Donny? OK. Again I point you to Ireland - stopping those ‘bad hombres’ from the North coming in...and...it’s working. Shocking.

no doubt we did some things well in this country, but it would be arrogant to think the northern hemisphere would be sweet if they just did what we did.

Who's being arrogant? Why are they asking for details? It's because SUPPRESSION has been PROVEN TO WORK - no other reason. It doesn't have to be Australia - it could be any first world country that has some lessons to share. Back to Sky News bud - what's Peta Cretin saying?

 

[DinkumDog]

They work for a short period before the spike happens again. As in England, Italy, Spain, list goes on.

That argument has already been torpedoed. But...

 

[DinkumDog]

England. No one respected them. Not even the government.
Italy. Same as above. Surprisingly, the public have been worse by all accounts
Spain. I don't have personal knowledge on this so won't comment.

Lockdowns, especially in Europe, in my mind aren't about 'stopping' the virus as I doubt that's possible. In Slovenia at least, it's been about creating less stress on medical services so that they can help both those with corona and also other illnesses, injuries etc. Without a lockdown the hospitals would be completely overrun so we wouldn't be able to treat any conditions.

100%. SUPPRESSION. Management - until the microchips - oops, sorry I mean vaccines arrive...

 

[Hacky McAxe]

No, you don’t need to take my advice. I value individuality, and part of that involves accepting that some ppl can’t think for themselves and enjoy taking instruction.

Don't be so hard on yourself

 

[Hacky McAxe]

Some work has been done to calculate the percentage chance of dying if you catch covid.

Up to the age of 50, if you catch covid your chance of dying is somewhere in the vicinity of a hundredth of 1% (i.e earth shatteringly unlikely).

Coronavirus: COVID Deaths in U.S. by Age, Race

While coronavirus is obviously concerning and a very real threat to some people (namely, the elderly and immunocompromised), these data also show that the risk for the rest of the population is quite low.

www.acsh.org

View attachment 18850

Did you mention that the above data is based on 286 deaths in a single city in Switzerland?

This is before I get into the problems with the ACSH

 

[Lov_Dog]

I have family throughout Texas, a few of them have had COVID, in each instance they were either asymptomatic or the symptoms were barely recognisable. None went to hospital. Of course this isn't representative of everyone, and clearly many people have been either quite sick or have died.

The situation might seem bad because the media keeps telling you it's bad multiple times a day and they also remind you of the COVID numbers multiple times a day. They don't tell you the number of cancer/heart disease/fentanyl over-doses and suicides every day.

The reality is that hospitals still have capacity and hopefully will continue to have capacity over the winter. Current stats are:

California: % of inpatient beds taken up: 63.7% (i.e. 36.3% of beds are available still)
Texas: % of inpatient beds taken up: 68%

California: % of ICU beds taken up: 64.5%
Texas: % of ICU beds taken up 73.8%

COVID-19 Data Dashboard - Hospital Capacity Snapshot | NHSN | CDC

www.cdc.gov

Also, the number of total deaths occurring in the U.S (from any cause) is currently below the 5 year average in most age categories (except 65 and older), but even in these older age categories, the current numbers are basically exactly on the average.

So on the topic of whether or not there is more, less or the same amount of death occurring compared to the last 5 years in America, the current data shows there is the same number of deaths occurring in older age groups and less deaths occurring than average in the younger age groups.

View attachment 18814

"Also, the number of total deaths occurring in the U.S (from any cause) is currently below the 5 year average in most age categories (except 65 and older), but even in these older age categories, the current numbers are basically exactly on the average.

So on the topic of whether or not there is more, less or the same amount of death occurring compared to the last 5 years in America, the current data shows there is the same number of deaths occurring in older age groups and less deaths occurring than average in the younger age groups."

I'm still missing how you arrive at your conclusions highlight in blue and red above.
Can you help explain your rationale, because the graphs and actual data tell a completely different story to what you have shared.
I'm particularly interested in the sharp drop off in trend line.

 

[Dawgfather]

That argument has already been torpedoed. But...
View attachment 18852

Yeah sure. Tell that to the citizens of multiple northern hemisphere countries already into their second lockdown.