When analysing where you think the bulldogs will finish, you need to factor in a few things.
Like who is the other 7 that make it,
And then more importantly who are the teams that don't make the 8.
OK, so it's all assumptions.
There are a few almost guaranteed teams to make the top 8. Or let's say teams that most league guys would expect to make the 8
Below are those teams in no particular order.
Panthers
Broncos
Storm
Roosters
Souths.
That's 5 of the 8 that you can almost bet your house on to make the 8.
Then there are other likely teams based on last year's form and strong squad.
Knights
Warriors
Both these clubs in my opinion will build on last year and make the 8.
Then there are teams that are good enough and would also expect to make the 8 if they have a consistent season.
Parramatta
Sharks.
So I have listed 9 teams, that are all good enough to make the 8.
So out of thise 9 teams, who is the 2 you think will drop out snd miss out to allow the dogs a spot in the top 8?
Then also consider dolphins will be much better next season.
Cowboys and manly and the raiders all have far better squards than the dogs for 2024.
Seriously guys, I want nothing more than to see the dogs play finals footy again.
But let's be honest with ourselves.
Without a genuine organising half, and no real dominate front rower, we are still a bottom 4 team.
I do think we will be better than last season, but it won't really be reflected on the ladder.
Not a bad assessment but what it misses out on is in order for a team to improve their ladder position they must beat a team/teams that they didn't beat last season. In turn that means those teams must end up with lower ladder positions. For every team/teams that move up the same number of teams must move down.
So who is it that is going to move down?
The first place I look is which clubs have a net loss in player quality;
#1 for me is the Broncos, they have lost Flegler, Farnworth and Capewell and gained Baker (Chooks) and Hunt (StGeorge). That's a big net loss.
#2 is Cronulla, they have lost Moylan, Tracey and Graham and gained Burns (StGeorge).
# 3 is Manly, they have lost Keppie, SFainu, Harper, Tuilagi and Weekes and gained Brooks, TTalau, James, JPaulo, Waddell and BHodgson.
#4 is Melbourne they have lost Sims, Nikorima, Eisenhuth and Jennings and gained no one that I know of. I have only ranked them 4th because they have habit of bringing in players for their SE Qld feeder clubs that are NRL ready.
#5 is Newcastle they have lost Mann, Clune, Young, Fitzgibbon, SSasagi, Miller, BHodgson, Aukafolau, HHunt, JJohns and gained Pryce, Pearce-Paul, Cogger, TJenkins, JCartwright.
#6 is Penrith, they have lost Crichton, Salmon, Leniu, Cogger, TJenkins, CSmith and Blacker and gained Laurie, Schneider and Alamoti. I have only ranked them 6th because they have a plethora of players from their lower levels that are NRL ready.
#7 is the Chooks, they have lost Baker, Paulo, Momirovski, Hutchison, Turpin, Allan and NBrown and gained Leniu and DYoung.
The not much has happened teams, quality wise, StGeorge, Tigers, Titans, Cowboys, Parramatta, Warriors, Souffs and Parramatta. Sure they have gained and lost players but in my view haven't moved up or down much in overall squad quality.
Then the teams that have gains;
A clear #1 for me is us with Xerri, Crichton, Salmon, Taaffe, Curran, Mann, Turpin, Hutchison, Faamausili and Tracey.
#2 is Dolphins, adding Farnworth, Flegler and Averillo.
What that means to the ladder will play out as the season progresses.
Always a Bulldog