Upcoming Australian election thread.

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Flanagun

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I don't think Libs will risk changing leadership. They lost popularity during the leadership switchup between Abbott-Turnbull-ScoMo. I doubt they'll risk showing more instability. They'll stick with Dutton until they lose the next election, then they'll encourage him to step down and everyone will make him the scapegoat for the failure.
Disagree. The party was tanking in the polls under Abbott.... Turnbull didn't help matters much, but after they dumped him for ScoMo they won an election they were predicted to lose and then rebounded nicely in the polls before ProMo blew it with his walking faux pas circus. I reckon they'll tank in the polls big time under Dutton. Don't think he'll make it to 2025. Time will tell.
 

Hacky McAxe

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Disagree. The party was tanking in the polls under Abbott.... Turnbull didn't help matters much, but after they dumped him for ScoMo they won an election they were predicted to lose and then rebounded nicely in the polls before ProMo blew it with his walking faux pas circus. I reckon they'll tank in the polls big time under Dutton. Don't think he'll make it to 2025. Time will tell.
But they also lost many supporters to ON and Palmer during that time. They also had a large drop in approval rating leading up to this election but they stuck with ScoMo.
 

CaptainJackson

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But they also lost many supporters to ON and Palmer during that time. They also had a large drop in approval rating leading up to this election but they stuck with ScoMo.
And where, oh where, would the preferences of ON and Palmer most likely flow to? Their HTV pamphlets would certainly put Labor and Greens last and for those voters that wouldn't use the HTV pamphlets, they themselves would be more likely to put Labor and Greens last.

This is the same argument you're using as Joe Hildebrand (he actually had an article that told Labor voters to vote for Josh Frydenburg) and Fairfax (JAmes MAssola's article if everyone knew Jenny Morrisson, Scott Morrisson would never lose an election) about being balanced and in the centre. It's not.
 

Hacky McAxe

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And where, oh where, would the preferences of ON and Palmer most likely flow to? Their HTV pamphlets would certainly put Labor and Greens last and for those voters that wouldn't use the HTV pamphlets, they themselves would be more likely to put Labor and Greens last.

This is the same argument you're using as Joe Hildebrand (he actually had an article that told Labor voters to vote for Josh Frydenburg) and Fairfax (JAmes MAssola's article if everyone knew Jenny Morrisson, Scott Morrisson would never lose an election) about being balanced and in the centre. It's not.
I'm not saying any of the sort. I'm just saying that Libs won't go for a spill before the next election.
 

Flanagun

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But they also lost many supporters to ON and Palmer during that time. They also had a large drop in approval rating leading up to this election but they stuck with ScoMo.
Because they knew they wouldn't do any better under Dutton and didn't want to elect a moderate. Those lost voters were more a reflection of hard right Abbott voters being pissed off they replaced him with a moderate in Turbull, IMO. That's the dilemma for the Libs. If they go more to the centre, they alienate the hard righties, but someone like Dutton is just about the last guy moderate Liberals and swing voters want leading the party.
 

Hacky McAxe

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Because they knew they wouldn't do any better under Dutton and didn't want to elect a moderate. Those lost voters were more a reflection of hard right Abbott voters being pissed off they replaced him with a moderate in Turbull, IMO. That's the dilemma for the Libs. If they go more to the centre, they alienate the hard righties, but someone like Dutton is just about the last guy moderate Liberals and swing voters want leading the party.
They wouldn't have dropped ScoMo for Dutton. They would have dropped him for Frydenberg. It's the smarter decision. Dutton is less liked.

On second thought, they aren't the smartest party.
 

Flanagun

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They wouldn't have dropped ScoMo for Dutton. They would have dropped him for Frydenberg. It's the smarter decision. Dutton is less liked.

On second thought, they aren't the smartest party.
I think they would have gone with Dutton. Frydenberg may have been the more sensible option, but the right faction wouldn't have allowed it to happen. Probably just as well they stuck with ScoMo, Dutton has the personality of a wet sock and Frydenberg neglected his electorate and ended up losing his seat. Imagine if the Libs had won and the PM lost his seat in the same election That would have to have been a first....lol
 

CaptainJackson

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I'm not saying any of the sort. I'm just saying that Libs won't go for a spill before the next election.
Ok fine but they didn't lose supporters/voters to ON/Palmer, they knew in the polls it may have looked that way but come election time preferences would handle themselves.

John Howard did it with Pauline Hanson, when One Nation first came out and Scomo did it in 2019, their internal polling would have taken all this into account.
 

CaptainJackson

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So she’s saying the Liberals chartered two boats, filled them with Sri Lankans and sent them to Australian as part of an election stunt?
No she's saying Sri Lankan authorities filled those boats up and sent them as an election stunt, which would've been repaid under the guise of some bogus foreign aid donation.
 

Doogie

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Wow did someone dare you to exaggerate as much as possible?
Butchered covid? How did we compare to the rest of the world?
Stinks at international relations? Is that code for doesn’t lick China’s arse?
Both parties did zip on climate change, it’s just Labor promised a bees dick more & you must know different types of women than me. On that, do you think it would be a good idea to make one of the “mean girls”, Katie Gallagher minister for women?
Did someone pay u to be a liberal apologist (coz no idiot would do it for free)?
CVD - we're a fckng island mate. We should do well compared to the rest of the world. Vaccines - nah - don't need those then suddenly, oh fck, we need them, better pay Poland overs for their nearly expired stuff (which most of it did expire anyway). And the Ruby Princess wants to say hello.
International relations? Well even the French foreign minister said good riddance. U think Scomo canned a multi billion manufacturing contract because we joined some alliance. Wasn't the purpose of that to build Aussie manufacturing? Mate, guarantee he knew we were building lemons and rather than do something about it, planned to can the contract but waited until the Alliance was finalised. Then used that as an excuse. Cost us billions. All for his media op.
Climate change is about right, but a bit more is better than a bit less. Rudd was probably the closest to being effective but got knifed for being a fwit. No clown since Abbott though has stood on the world stage around climate change and told the world, fck u all. Brilliant. Based on the election, pretty obvious the electorate is pro-action - and your argument is that neither did anything? Well, fairly sure Anal is not getting voted out for doing nothing when he is in opposition. Sort of doesn't work that way.
I probably do know different women than you. Chicks I know don't hang around Liberal ralllies playing bukakke. No idea wtf Gallagher is either but if u don't think Scomo was on the nose with women - I've no idea what else I can say.
 

Gene Krupa

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So she’s saying the Liberals chartered two boats, filled them with Sri Lankans and sent them to Australian as part of an election stunt?
No she isn't. Read it again. I was told April 26 there would be 2 boats coming, allegedly facilitated by Sri Lankan authorities, due to arrive by May 21. Described as an “election stunt”. I couldn’t verify.
 
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Hacky McAxe

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Ok fine but they didn't lose supporters/voters to ON/Palmer, they knew in the polls it may have looked that way but come election time preferences would handle themselves.

John Howard did it with Pauline Hanson, when One Nation first came out and Scomo did it in 2019, their internal polling would have taken all this into account.
Which seems logical, except Palmer threatened to put Libs last and ON put Labor ahead of Libs in some areas. Not that the LNP would have predicted that.
 

Natboy

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No she's saying Sri Lankan authorities filled those boats up and sent them as an election stunt, which would've been repaid under the guise of some bogus foreign aid donation.
Hmm yes it sounds a bit ridiculous and if it did happen anyone in Australia with knowledge of it should go to jail
 
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