I like most on here am still struggling to work out how we can be in so much cap trouble. This is actually my second thread about the subject in the last month. I work in the numbers game so my mind naturally is inquisitive when it comes to solving mathematical problems. Sometimes, as in this case, to the verge of driving me insane.
Anyway here is my take on it. To cut a long story short, because I myself struggle to read long posts, I believe next season is not our issue but rather 2020 is (it has been mentioned on here by others also). In 2020 we have what would be considered our most experienced and hence most expensive players all off contract. For some it is most likely also their last contract and they have been loyal to the club so that would also most likely mean extra overs.
My estimates are as follows:
- Klemmer. 4 year deal ending in 2020 worth $3m. So should look like $750k per season but more likely $400k x 3, with a back-ended deal of $1.8m (scary number)
- Jackson. similar if not exactly the same as Klemmer
- Tolman. $450k per season deal back-ended looks like $200k, $250k, then $900k
- Foran. $800k, $1m, $1.2M
- Hoppa. 3 years $2m (remember he was at Parra for $900k a season). Looks like $400k, $400k, and $1.2m
- Elliot. 3 years $1.2m. $200k, $200k, $800k.
Based on these 6 players only they would be taking $7.7m of the full cap. If you add that we are also paying Mbye and Woods at least $300k that would mean effectively $8m for 6 players. So you would need to fill 24 other spots for $1.6m. Which is impossible. Based on minimum $100k players that's 16 players so we are still 8 players, or $800k short. Even if these figures are slightly inflated I think you can see the trend.
The reason I believe this to be about right is because all these players were signed by the previous board and if history is an accurate gage for the future then look no further than Graham, last year $1m, Eastwood, last year $800k, and the Morris Twins, both on close to $1m each last year of contract.
I think the current boards plan is to pay forward this year and next year as much as possible, just to be able to be cap compliant in 2020. Cap compliant. Not in the market for marquee players. I think the aim is to field a team worth $6-7m next season and forward pay $2-3m to 2020 to give us a chance.
I pity everyone at the club who is having to deal with this mess, created with the sole objective of 2 Premierships before 2019. I pity us supporters who have been robbed and played for fools even more.
Apologies for the long post, but my wife won't listen to my Bulldogs whinging anymore, plus she is shit at maths, although she makes up for it with her long legs, blonde hair and blue eyes. Thanks for picking up the slack my beloved Doggie supporters.
