BSmith has stated numerous times that he wants to play hooker, both for Melbourne and the Kiwis. Sure he can play elsewhere in the forwards but he will never command the money that he will get playing hooker. He is only 25 and has at least 5 to 7 years ahead of him, if he is giving up, say, $200k a year by not paying hooker that's $1.4m he will miss out on in his career.
But it is even worse than that, Melbourne will expect and demand that he plays for at least $100k less than what he would get for playing the same position at any other club. That's another $700k he will miss out on if he doesn't move away from Melbourne.
But wait there's more, if this isn't Bellamy's last year in Melbourne then next year surely is, so if BSmith does stay in Melbourne he most certainly won't be coached by Bellamy.
Who in their right mind is going to give up possibly $2.1m to stay in Melbourne and at the same time not be coached by Bellamy.
As I have posted many times, my guess is that Grant will be the one to leave, quite possibly to the new SE Qld team (another guess, Redcliffe Dolphins).