NSW & Qld have more than half of the population of Australia, then add in NZ which has a higher population than WA, SA, Tas and NT COMBINED. Logically the best gains for the NRL is Brisbane, where a lot of people (and sponsors/advertisers) would welcome someone other than the Broncos to support, and then South Island NZ. Even if the total viewers is the same (highly unlikely) there will be 2 games in prime time featuring Brisbane teams every week, so that's increased viewer stats. If the Redcliffe Dolphins get the licence they already have a full set of gear advertisers with 2 majors in waiting, that's revenue in waiting for the broadcasters.
FWIW the radio and TV broadcasters (in Oz and NZ) were asked whereabouts they wanted new teams and the overwhelming answer was a second team in SE Qld and then NZ.
Always a Bulldog
Nice analysis
I think it is a given that those two are given a priority.
With COVID coming into play - WA is getting its taste of professional football again with the Western Force back into the fold. Whilst there may be an appetite for league out that way, evidenced by a couple of anecdotal games played over there in the past few years (we took a game to the Optus stadium, Origin II from 2019, South took a game a year there for a few years) - I do not believe it is enough for financial viability.
Perth Glory (different sport, obviously) only have around the 7k in members mark. So that tells me there is a taste, just not enough to warrant .
The one thing that I think that the broadcasters would love about Perth though is the flexibility of time slots. They are, for the most part, 2 hours behind during the NRL season. So they could put 6 pm Sunday games for the West coast, and it will be 4 pm Perth Time and 8 pm NZ time. But a 2nd NZ team would do something similar anyway. A second NZ team could potentially get the 6 pm Friday slot - when it is actually 8 pm in NZ. So in effect, get the best of both worlds... decent attendance to the game, but also a decent viewership given the time.