They’ve got these modelling scenarios wrong before. Wasn’t SARS meant to be just as bad, according to these experts
It is important to understand what the purpose of modelling is, and to understand it in each context. The modelling for say, a business case to open a Jim's Mowing franchise is very different from modelling done in relation to potential pandemic scenarios. If the modelling for a Jim's Moving franchise is too optimistic someone will lose a bit of money. If the modelling for a potential pandemic scenario is too optimistic, 1000s of people die, many more gain serious health issues, and the economy will take a resulting hit.
That last bit is really important, because it has been proven time and again through 2020 and into this year (
link,
link, and
link) that the idea that there is a trade off between health and economy is a myth. Countries who have done more to prevent the spread are in a better economic position today, in relative terms.
And this is why what is happening right now in India has got a lot of people in the know concerned. India is being increasingly positioned as the anti-China. They are a democracy, they are neighbours to China (and have minor border confrontations with them), they have close ties with western countries. India was becoming the regional power that could potentially help stare China down. At a time in which China is becoming increasingly belligerent India is a key piece of the geopolitical puzzle. This is the reason Japan, US, and Aus have joined with India to form the so called "Quad" group (
link). The Australian government is very much in favour of the economic growth of India (see this 2018 report by DFAT:
https://www.dfat.gov.au/geo/india/ies/overview.html).
What is happening right now is going to set India back by years, maybe even a decade.