DoggyStyla
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I’ve been dragged out of semi-retirement as a site contributor to cast an eye over my beloved Canterbury Bulldogs. After three consecutive twelfth place finishes, my fellow supporters and I haven’t had too much to crow about recently and the same applies when looking through a SuperCoach lens.
Aside
from the odd rookie surprise (Jayden Okunbor, Rhyse Martin) or unsexy
almost-guns (Aiden Tolman, Will Hopoate), it has been slim pickings at Belmore
in recent seasons. Joe Stimson is the only new big(ish) name recruit, with Dean
Britt and Sione Katoa (no, the other one) also joining the club.
A perfect
example of how the club does business, Dallin Watene-Zelezniak was the
high-priced recruit Penrith was happy to let go at a time the Bulldogs were
leaking stories of an unprecedented $8.5m ‘war chest’ to chase Kalyn Ponga
and/or the Trbojevic brothers.
As you’ll
no doubt have realised, Ponga and both Trbojevics preferred the ‘stability’ of
Newcastle and Manly over whatever Canterbury was offering. Because both clubs
are somehow less rife with infighting, financial and structural issues than the
Bulldogs. I will now set myself on fire.
But
instability and poor results generally makes for fertile SuperCoach ground,
with rookies getting thrown into lineups more regularly than in settled clubs.
So, how are the Bulldogs looking for the upcoming season and will the new
recruits spark Mary McGregor Stephen Kearney Dean Pay’s team into
SuperCoach and real-life relevance?
INS/OUTS
Gains – Joe Stimson (Storm), Dean
Britt (Rabbitohs), Sione Katoa (Panthers), Isaiah Tass (upgraded from
development list), Jake Averillo (upgraded from lower grades).
Unsigned/Losses
– Connelly
Lemuele (Cowboys), Michael Lichaa*, Danny Fualalo, John Olive, Nu Brown,
Kaiyne-Lee Kalache (all unsigned)
*Pour one
out for Michael Lichaa, who remains unsigned and unwanted by an NRL club.
Lichaa’s signing in 2015 forced club captain Michael Ennis and Damien Cook out
on the street. Ennis immediately led the Sharks to a premiership and Damien
Cook is a superstar. Ladies and Gentlemen, the Canterbury Bulldogs!
LIKELY 17
1 Dallin
Watene-Zelezniak 2 Nick Meaney 3 Will Hopoate 4 Reimis Smith 5 Jayden Okunbor 6
Jack Cogger 7 Lachlan Lewis 8 Aiden Tolman 9 Jeremy Marshall-King 10 Dylan Napa
11 Corey Harawira-Naera 12 Josh Jackson 13 Adam Elliott*
14 Joe
Stimson 15 Raymond Faitala-Mariner* 16 Renouf To’omaga 17 Sione Katoa
*Adam
Elliott is expected to be fit for Round 1, despite picking up an ankle knock
ahead of the All Stars game.
*Raymond
Faitala-Mariner is recovering from syndesmosis and may miss Round 1
*Kieran Foran is made of recycled cardboard and should not be left out in the rain,
much less feature for an NRL team in 2020.
Other
squad members: Jake
Averillo, Dean Britt, Christian Crichton, Kieran Foran, Morgan Harper, Kerrod
Holland, Marcelo Montoya, Ofahiki Ogden, Chris Smith, Sauaso Sue, Isaiah Tass,
Brandon Wakeham.
DRAW
ANALYSIS
The Bulldogs kick off the NRL season with a Thursday night game against the Eels and follow it up with a home game against the Cowboys, the Tigers at Campbelltown and home against the Sharks. So, four games in Sydney with the only strong opponent a local rival who we play tough every time – short of facing the Titans, that’s about as nice a start as you could hope for.
The bye in
Round 16 means the only scheduling risk for Origin players is Round 12,
although that’s not a particular concern with only Dylan Napa a chance at a
call up. As luck would have it, the Titans are on the menu in Round 12 and,
without their only star in Jai Arrow, would be considered as easy a game as
they’ll have all year. I’m not recommending having Bulldogs players just for
that matchup, of course.
Since the
NRL acted to lessen the impact of Origin games on the schedule, I’m wary of
overanalysing the draw from a SuperCoach perspective. Short of the Storm and
Roosters at the top and the Titans and Tigers at the bottom, I don’t think
there’s too much to be read into matchups given how injuries and fluctuating
form impacts teams at different times of the year.
Similarly,
when analysing SuperCoach points to position, player offseason movement and
(mostly) clean bills of health introduce too many variables to get an accurate
gauge of potential opportunities to exploit.
Sure, the
Bulldogs gave up the second most points to CTWs last year (only 0.01 PPM off
the worst). But that’s bound to happen when Kerrod Holland backs away from
opposing centres like he was Ben Creagh in an Origin stoush. No Kerrod Holland,
no turnstile etc. etc.
Point is,
the days of the draw significantly influencing your Round 1 team are gone now
we don’t have players missing big chucks of the year through Origin.
GUNS
Corey
Harawira-Naera ($557.6k, 2RF) 2019 average 60
You could
make a good argument that CHN starts underpriced, given his bench minutes for
five games last season. The thing is, he played off the bench in those games
because the Bulldogs had too many talented edge backrowers. Now, having had a
full year to assess team needs, Dean Pay decided the position to spend big
money on was…an edge backrower.
You can’t
make this stuff up.
At a more
functional club, CHN would be a fine POD to start the year. His incredible
rookie season at the Panthers (0.81 PPM) and his form last season (0.82 PPM)
points to an 80-minute, 65 PPG scorer and therefore one who is 5 PPG
underpriced. But my feel for the Bulldogs edge players is the same we all had
for the Panthers’ forward pack during Ivan Cleary’s first stint – you just can’t
trust the minutes from week to week.
Aiden
Tolman ($557.2k, FRF) 2019 average 60
As
predicted by yours truly in this space last offseason, Tolman started 10 PPG
underpriced and was an important piece of the puzzle for many successful
SuperCoach sides. But despite roaring home with a seven-game average of 66.7
PPG, it’s a hard sell to start with him this year over his peers at the
position in Andrew Fifita ($553k), TPJ ($540k), Marty Taupau ($571k) and even
Paul Vaughan ($556k).
On the
other hand, all four of those peers contain real risk due to injury or
stupidity – or in some cases both. If you’re running with Tolman, it’s because
you want a rock solid 60 PPG game in and game out with no frills and no real
injury or suspension risk. Outside of Payne Haas, Tolman might be the most
dependable FRF in the game.
Sleepers
Will
Hopoate ($531.7k, CTW) 2019 average 57
One of
the more predictable things you’ll hear at some point during the SuperCoach
season is one of your mates wondering how Will Hopoate is a top three scoring
CTW. His ownership never seems to be north of 5%, yet year after year he
delivers thanks to an incredible work rate and sneaky offload.
Of
course, the very good reason for that is CTW isn’t really the position you want
solid and dependable scorers. But Hoppa has shown he can go on serious and
sustained runs of form, including a 70 PPG average over the second half of 2019
– second only to Latrell Mitchell.
Don’t
start with him but keep an eye out for when he has a run of slightly lower scores
and bottoms out in price – he dropped to $367k in Round 13 before going on that
70 PPG run for the back half of the year (gaining $220k in the process). He
fits into anyone’s final team for the run home.
Busts
Dallin
Watene-Zelezniak ($336.1k,
CTW/FLB) 2019 average 36
Highly
touted when recruited midseason to play his preferred position of fullback, DWZ
was on everyone’s watchlist in anticipation of a much improved SuperCoach
output. With a full preseason under his belt and the team’s surprising six game
winning streak to close out the season, some may be tempted by the price tag
relative to pedigree. CTW is, after all, the position to gamble on underpriced
players in Round 1.
But don’t
be deceived by the relatively low $336k, which prices him at a 36 PPG average.
During the Dogs’ fast finish last year, DWZ remained a non-factor for
SuperCoach averaging…exactly 36 PPG.
Lachlan
Lewis ($390.3k, 5/8 / HFB) 2019 average 42
People
(okay, Channel Nine commentators) bang on about Lachlan having the “Lewis DNA” and
I’m one of the many Bulldogs fans demanding the DNA test results to prove he’s
actually Wally Lewis’ nephew.
I watched
the legendary 1989 Game 2 Origin clash sometime during this long offseason –
the one where King Wally singlehandedly won it with a solo try, ‘sprinting’ 25
metres to score. I swear to god, my first thought was “I bet he’d smoke his
nephew in a foot race” and I didn’t mean the Wally of 31 years ago, I meant the
Wally of 2020, the 60-year-old post brain surgery version.
Priced at
a 42 PPG average, I cannot recommend him since I just don’t see that many
points in the Dogs (even with the great start to the season). The only reason
I’m profiling Lewis at all is that I’ve heard a little chat that there might be
some midrange value, with Foran out for the season and no other viable lead
playmaker at the club.
His two
most notable skills are defence (admittedly good for a halfback) and the way he
casually flicks the fringe out of his eyes during a break in play (not
currently a SuperCoach stat). And let’s face it, if he actually had the
King’s DNA he’d be bald by now…
Cheapies
Renouf
To’omaga ($244.7K,
2RF)
To’omaga
is likely to be the first middle forward off the bench for the Dogs and is
decently undervalued. He excelled in lower grades in recent years as a
tryscoring middle and I don’t need to tell you that forwards who get over the
line regularly are SC gold.
To’omaga
debuted in Round 17 last year and kept his bench role the rest of the way,
averaging 23 MPG at a pleasing 1.16 PPM. Considering his line busting,
tryscoring ways in the reggies that PPM is notable as it isn’t artificially
inflated by attacking stats. So, if the minutes increase (they will) and the
PPM at least stays steady (a good chance), he’s in the discussion as the slow
burning forward cheapie we all seem to start with in Round 1.
Sione
Katoa ($224.4k, HOK)
Katoa will start the season behind Jeremy Marshall-King on the bench, with his sluggish 0.59 PPM in 40 MPG for a much more talented Panthers team last year all you need to know. Stay away.
While there’s a possibility Marshall-King is eased back in after offseason shoulder surgery, there are far better options at Hooker to go with a mediocre option.
Jake
Averillo ($171.9k,
HFB)
A 19-year-old centre (who’s somehow a halfback in SC) who won’t start in the 17 but will get his chance sometime during the season. When he does, he’s got the talent to be a prime downgrade once your cash cows fatten.
The path into the starting side is currently blocked by Morgan Harper and otherwise mediocre players (Crichton, Montoya, Holland) whom Pay has tried and discarded in the past. Pay’s proven to make changes in the outside backs when the team is struggling, so he’s not as far away as it might seem.
Morgan
Harper ($227.7k,
CTW)
Has flashed
real potential in lower grades but unfortunately starts above base price after
being given his debut in the Round 26 win over the Broncos. The 21-year old
centre is probably ahead of Averillo in the pecking order but both will likely
see the field at some stage. If the Reimis Smith experiment at centre doesn’t
work out, that might be sooner rather than later.
Aside
from the odd rookie surprise (Jayden Okunbor, Rhyse Martin) or unsexy
almost-guns (Aiden Tolman, Will Hopoate), it has been slim pickings at Belmore
in recent seasons. Joe Stimson is the only new big(ish) name recruit, with Dean
Britt and Sione Katoa (no, the other one) also joining the club.
A perfect
example of how the club does business, Dallin Watene-Zelezniak was the
high-priced recruit Penrith was happy to let go at a time the Bulldogs were
leaking stories of an unprecedented $8.5m ‘war chest’ to chase Kalyn Ponga
and/or the Trbojevic brothers.
As you’ll
no doubt have realised, Ponga and both Trbojevics preferred the ‘stability’ of
Newcastle and Manly over whatever Canterbury was offering. Because both clubs
are somehow less rife with infighting, financial and structural issues than the
Bulldogs. I will now set myself on fire.
But
instability and poor results generally makes for fertile SuperCoach ground,
with rookies getting thrown into lineups more regularly than in settled clubs.
So, how are the Bulldogs looking for the upcoming season and will the new
recruits spark Mary McGregor Stephen Kearney Dean Pay’s team into
SuperCoach and real-life relevance?
INS/OUTS
Gains – Joe Stimson (Storm), Dean
Britt (Rabbitohs), Sione Katoa (Panthers), Isaiah Tass (upgraded from
development list), Jake Averillo (upgraded from lower grades).
Unsigned/Losses
– Connelly
Lemuele (Cowboys), Michael Lichaa*, Danny Fualalo, John Olive, Nu Brown,
Kaiyne-Lee Kalache (all unsigned)
*Pour one
out for Michael Lichaa, who remains unsigned and unwanted by an NRL club.
Lichaa’s signing in 2015 forced club captain Michael Ennis and Damien Cook out
on the street. Ennis immediately led the Sharks to a premiership and Damien
Cook is a superstar. Ladies and Gentlemen, the Canterbury Bulldogs!
LIKELY 17
1 Dallin
Watene-Zelezniak 2 Nick Meaney 3 Will Hopoate 4 Reimis Smith 5 Jayden Okunbor 6
Jack Cogger 7 Lachlan Lewis 8 Aiden Tolman 9 Jeremy Marshall-King 10 Dylan Napa
11 Corey Harawira-Naera 12 Josh Jackson 13 Adam Elliott*
14 Joe
Stimson 15 Raymond Faitala-Mariner* 16 Renouf To’omaga 17 Sione Katoa
*Adam
Elliott is expected to be fit for Round 1, despite picking up an ankle knock
ahead of the All Stars game.
*Raymond
Faitala-Mariner is recovering from syndesmosis and may miss Round 1
*Kieran Foran is made of recycled cardboard and should not be left out in the rain,
much less feature for an NRL team in 2020.
Other
squad members: Jake
Averillo, Dean Britt, Christian Crichton, Kieran Foran, Morgan Harper, Kerrod
Holland, Marcelo Montoya, Ofahiki Ogden, Chris Smith, Sauaso Sue, Isaiah Tass,
Brandon Wakeham.
DRAW
ANALYSIS
The Bulldogs kick off the NRL season with a Thursday night game against the Eels and follow it up with a home game against the Cowboys, the Tigers at Campbelltown and home against the Sharks. So, four games in Sydney with the only strong opponent a local rival who we play tough every time – short of facing the Titans, that’s about as nice a start as you could hope for.
The bye in
Round 16 means the only scheduling risk for Origin players is Round 12,
although that’s not a particular concern with only Dylan Napa a chance at a
call up. As luck would have it, the Titans are on the menu in Round 12 and,
without their only star in Jai Arrow, would be considered as easy a game as
they’ll have all year. I’m not recommending having Bulldogs players just for
that matchup, of course.
Since the
NRL acted to lessen the impact of Origin games on the schedule, I’m wary of
overanalysing the draw from a SuperCoach perspective. Short of the Storm and
Roosters at the top and the Titans and Tigers at the bottom, I don’t think
there’s too much to be read into matchups given how injuries and fluctuating
form impacts teams at different times of the year.
Similarly,
when analysing SuperCoach points to position, player offseason movement and
(mostly) clean bills of health introduce too many variables to get an accurate
gauge of potential opportunities to exploit.
Sure, the
Bulldogs gave up the second most points to CTWs last year (only 0.01 PPM off
the worst). But that’s bound to happen when Kerrod Holland backs away from
opposing centres like he was Ben Creagh in an Origin stoush. No Kerrod Holland,
no turnstile etc. etc.
Point is,
the days of the draw significantly influencing your Round 1 team are gone now
we don’t have players missing big chucks of the year through Origin.
GUNS
Corey
Harawira-Naera ($557.6k, 2RF) 2019 average 60
You could
make a good argument that CHN starts underpriced, given his bench minutes for
five games last season. The thing is, he played off the bench in those games
because the Bulldogs had too many talented edge backrowers. Now, having had a
full year to assess team needs, Dean Pay decided the position to spend big
money on was…an edge backrower.
You can’t
make this stuff up.
At a more
functional club, CHN would be a fine POD to start the year. His incredible
rookie season at the Panthers (0.81 PPM) and his form last season (0.82 PPM)
points to an 80-minute, 65 PPG scorer and therefore one who is 5 PPG
underpriced. But my feel for the Bulldogs edge players is the same we all had
for the Panthers’ forward pack during Ivan Cleary’s first stint – you just can’t
trust the minutes from week to week.
Aiden
Tolman ($557.2k, FRF) 2019 average 60
As
predicted by yours truly in this space last offseason, Tolman started 10 PPG
underpriced and was an important piece of the puzzle for many successful
SuperCoach sides. But despite roaring home with a seven-game average of 66.7
PPG, it’s a hard sell to start with him this year over his peers at the
position in Andrew Fifita ($553k), TPJ ($540k), Marty Taupau ($571k) and even
Paul Vaughan ($556k).
On the
other hand, all four of those peers contain real risk due to injury or
stupidity – or in some cases both. If you’re running with Tolman, it’s because
you want a rock solid 60 PPG game in and game out with no frills and no real
injury or suspension risk. Outside of Payne Haas, Tolman might be the most
dependable FRF in the game.
Sleepers
Will
Hopoate ($531.7k, CTW) 2019 average 57
One of
the more predictable things you’ll hear at some point during the SuperCoach
season is one of your mates wondering how Will Hopoate is a top three scoring
CTW. His ownership never seems to be north of 5%, yet year after year he
delivers thanks to an incredible work rate and sneaky offload.
Of
course, the very good reason for that is CTW isn’t really the position you want
solid and dependable scorers. But Hoppa has shown he can go on serious and
sustained runs of form, including a 70 PPG average over the second half of 2019
– second only to Latrell Mitchell.
Don’t
start with him but keep an eye out for when he has a run of slightly lower scores
and bottoms out in price – he dropped to $367k in Round 13 before going on that
70 PPG run for the back half of the year (gaining $220k in the process). He
fits into anyone’s final team for the run home.
Busts
Dallin
Watene-Zelezniak ($336.1k,
CTW/FLB) 2019 average 36
Highly
touted when recruited midseason to play his preferred position of fullback, DWZ
was on everyone’s watchlist in anticipation of a much improved SuperCoach
output. With a full preseason under his belt and the team’s surprising six game
winning streak to close out the season, some may be tempted by the price tag
relative to pedigree. CTW is, after all, the position to gamble on underpriced
players in Round 1.
But don’t
be deceived by the relatively low $336k, which prices him at a 36 PPG average.
During the Dogs’ fast finish last year, DWZ remained a non-factor for
SuperCoach averaging…exactly 36 PPG.
Lachlan
Lewis ($390.3k, 5/8 / HFB) 2019 average 42
People
(okay, Channel Nine commentators) bang on about Lachlan having the “Lewis DNA” and
I’m one of the many Bulldogs fans demanding the DNA test results to prove he’s
actually Wally Lewis’ nephew.
I watched
the legendary 1989 Game 2 Origin clash sometime during this long offseason –
the one where King Wally singlehandedly won it with a solo try, ‘sprinting’ 25
metres to score. I swear to god, my first thought was “I bet he’d smoke his
nephew in a foot race” and I didn’t mean the Wally of 31 years ago, I meant the
Wally of 2020, the 60-year-old post brain surgery version.
Priced at
a 42 PPG average, I cannot recommend him since I just don’t see that many
points in the Dogs (even with the great start to the season). The only reason
I’m profiling Lewis at all is that I’ve heard a little chat that there might be
some midrange value, with Foran out for the season and no other viable lead
playmaker at the club.
His two
most notable skills are defence (admittedly good for a halfback) and the way he
casually flicks the fringe out of his eyes during a break in play (not
currently a SuperCoach stat). And let’s face it, if he actually had the
King’s DNA he’d be bald by now…
Cheapies
Renouf
To’omaga ($244.7K,
2RF)
To’omaga
is likely to be the first middle forward off the bench for the Dogs and is
decently undervalued. He excelled in lower grades in recent years as a
tryscoring middle and I don’t need to tell you that forwards who get over the
line regularly are SC gold.
To’omaga
debuted in Round 17 last year and kept his bench role the rest of the way,
averaging 23 MPG at a pleasing 1.16 PPM. Considering his line busting,
tryscoring ways in the reggies that PPM is notable as it isn’t artificially
inflated by attacking stats. So, if the minutes increase (they will) and the
PPM at least stays steady (a good chance), he’s in the discussion as the slow
burning forward cheapie we all seem to start with in Round 1.
Sione
Katoa ($224.4k, HOK)
Katoa will start the season behind Jeremy Marshall-King on the bench, with his sluggish 0.59 PPM in 40 MPG for a much more talented Panthers team last year all you need to know. Stay away.
While there’s a possibility Marshall-King is eased back in after offseason shoulder surgery, there are far better options at Hooker to go with a mediocre option.
Jake
Averillo ($171.9k,
HFB)
A 19-year-old centre (who’s somehow a halfback in SC) who won’t start in the 17 but will get his chance sometime during the season. When he does, he’s got the talent to be a prime downgrade once your cash cows fatten.
The path into the starting side is currently blocked by Morgan Harper and otherwise mediocre players (Crichton, Montoya, Holland) whom Pay has tried and discarded in the past. Pay’s proven to make changes in the outside backs when the team is struggling, so he’s not as far away as it might seem.
Morgan
Harper ($227.7k,
CTW)
Has flashed
real potential in lower grades but unfortunately starts above base price after
being given his debut in the Round 26 win over the Broncos. The 21-year old
centre is probably ahead of Averillo in the pecking order but both will likely
see the field at some stage. If the Reimis Smith experiment at centre doesn’t
work out, that might be sooner rather than later.
