Betting chat : Why does this sound too good to be true ?

[Rodzilla]

Let's look at it this way. A simplistic bet. Say we have 8 teams playing each with a 50/50 chance of winning.

If we bet on one game we have:

50% chance of winning

We bet on two legs we have:

33.3333% chance of winning both games correct, 33.333% chance of getting 1 game correct, 33.333% chance of getting no games correct

We bet on 3 games:

25% chance of getting all games correct, 25% chance of getting 2/3 games correct, 25% chance of getting 1/3 games correct, 25% chance of getting no games correct

We bet on 4 games we have:

20% chance of getting all games correct, 20% chance of getting 3/4 games correct, 20% chance of getting 2/4 games correct, 20% chance of getting 1/4 games correct, 20% chance of getting no games correct.

So the 4 leg bet we have odds of 20%

The 3 leg bets each have odds of 25%

I'm guessing it would be something like $1.90 vs $2.20 in which case the odds would increase slightly. Effectively you'd be looking at about 22% for the 4 leg and 28% for the 3 leg.

If we rule out the 4 leg game we have odds of 28% per game which become exponential per game you are trying to win.

no when you bet on 3 games you only have 12.5% chance to pick 3 correct, 37.5% to pick 2 correct, 37.5% to pick 1 correct and 12.5% to pick 0 correct, and its only a 6% to pick all 4 winners in 4 games

lets say you bet on the home team for 3 games

these are all the possible outcomes in those 3 games (H for home win, A for away win)

HHH
HHA
HAH
AHH
HAA
AHA
AAH
AAA

 

[Captain Kickass]

these line situations are like a coin flip, so the chances that you can get all 4 correct is like flipping 4 coins and getting 4 heads

getting 4 heads in 4 coinflips is 1/16 and getting 3 is 1/4, so you have 25% chance to break even and 31% chance to not lose

Great input Rod ...

Counter-point #1 = Could we argue that we reduce the coin-flip nature of some bets somewhat by choosing an alternate event we have a smattering of confidence about ? You could easily forget line bets and look for the best Head-to-Head options above $1.71 in any number of sports.

Counter-point #2 = By betting only 5% of your bank, you can sustain losses for longer.

 

[CrittaMagic69]

See this is why kids needs to pay attention in mathematics in school.

If my teachers told me "one day you will use these skills for gambling on sporting events that you already love, to make yourself rich" I would have paid more attention. And by more, I mean some.

I was dumb as shit with maths at school, like ranked in bottom 10 lol. Absolutely hated it and could not undertsand it at all. I did manage to learn it easy as once i went to tafe though, made so much more sense when it had a purpose and not just pointless equations in a book.

 

[Rodzilla]

Great input Rod ...

Counter-point #1 = Could we argue that we reduce the coin-flip nature of some bets somewhat by choosing an alternate event we have a smattering of confidence about ? You could easily forget line bets and look for the best Head-to-Head options above $1.71 in any number of sports.

Counter-point #2 = By betting only 5% of your bank, you can sustain losses for longer.

yeah there is skill to picking out winners and if you can indeed pick out 4 leg parlays once in every 8 then please hook me up with some tips via PM:arab:

nice GSW pick btw, never in doubt

 

[LFC Bulldogs]

I'm not sure how much truth there is to this but a friend of mine a couple of years back told us that he picked 7 leg parlay returning close to $100.000. The payout figure was high because he picked a few draw soccer matches in his parlay which pay very well.
However, he reckons the online sports betting agency wouldn't pay him out because they deemed him to be a "professional gambler".
Apparently they have the clauses in their terms and conditions which prohibit "professional gamblers" from using their online services which most punters are unaware of.
Now how someone they can prove someone is a professional gambler or not is beyond me. It sounds like the betting agencies will find any excuse to not pay out big wins. The want to take your money, not give you money.

 

[Caveman]

I'm not sure how much truth there is to this but a friend of mine a couple of years back told us that he picked 7 leg parlay returning close to $100.000. The payout figure was high because he picked a few draw soccer matches in his parlay which pay very well.
However, he reckons the online sports betting agency wouldn't pay him out because they deemed him to be a "professional gambler".
Apparently they have the clauses in their terms and conditions which prohibit "professional gamblers" from using their online services which most punters are unaware of.
Now how someone they can prove someone is a professional gambler or not is beyond me. It sounds like the betting agencies will find any excuse to not pay out big wins. The want to take your money, not give you money.

easy way to get around that is place your bets in an actual tab

 

[Rodzilla]

so lets take this all in, you were dumb as shit as maths, you have never played rugby league, yet you act like you are the number one person on this site.
you bag reynolds, SOO player and played 2 grand finals, you bag Kasiano, NZ test rep and 2 grand finals, yet you have never set foot on a rugby league field.
name one coach or assistant coach in any grade apart under 7's with credentials like yours???

daniel anderson

 

[Captain Kickass]

so lets take this all in, you were dumb as shit as maths, you have never played rugby league, yet you act like you are the number one person on this site.
you bag reynolds, SOO player and played 2 grand finals, you bag Kasiano, NZ test rep and 2 grand finals, yet you have never set foot on a rugby league field.
name one coach or assistant coach in any grade apart under 7's with credentials like yours???

 

[Hacky McAxe]

no when you bet on 3 games you only have 12.5% chance to pick 3 correct, 37.5% to pick 2 correct, 37.5% to pick 1 correct and 12.5% to pick 0 correct, and its only a 6% to pick all 4 winners in 4 games

lets say you bet on the home team for 3 games

these are all the possible outcomes in those 3 games (H for home win, A for away win)

HHH
HHA
HAH
AHH
HAA
AHA
AAH
AAA

And that's why my calculations are usually wrong. For some reason I based it on 2 teams rather than the whole division. Thursday afternoon brain is not good. Kinda like Friday morning brain. Or any time I'm actually awake brain.

 

[Captain Kickass]

Quick update : still no 4/4 after 9 multis, but currently got a record of 3-correct x4, 2-correct x3, 1correct x2.

Some quality returns on 3-correct bets in horse racing due to inflated odds is helping skew my 'sustained loss' window longer. That said, I'd like a 4/4 result to get the snowball rolling.

Tennis bets need a rethink. I'm doing it blind. Set betting for value has proved a failure. Win odds are too short.

Current bet ...
- EPL Liverpool win $1.70
- NFL Panthers -3.5 $1.85
- NFL Broncos +3.5 $1.85
- A-League "Sydney or Draw" $1.75

When I get some free time I'll whack up a spreadsheet ... It's proving to be a good test of patience and discipline.

 

[jo7resh]

I'm not sure how much truth there is to this but a friend of mine a couple of years back told us that he picked 7 leg parlay returning close to $100.000. The payout figure was high because he picked a few draw soccer matches in his parlay which pay very well.
However, he reckons the online sports betting agency wouldn't pay him out because they deemed him to be a "professional gambler".
Apparently they have the clauses in their terms and conditions which prohibit "professional gamblers" from using their online services which most punters are unaware of.
Now how someone they can prove someone is a professional gambler or not is beyond me. It sounds like the betting agencies will find any excuse to not pay out big wins. The want to take your money, not give you money.

Have heard stories where online companies ban people that are constantly winning or even restrict them on how much they spend

But I doubt this would of happen if it was just a once off with this guy betting. And considering he place the bet and they accepted, they would of have to pay.

 

[The DoggFather]

Hey Jo, welcome back bro.

 

[jo7resh]

Y

Hey Jo, welcome back bro.

yea thanks man

 

[Stinky Wizzleteats]

Have heard stories where online companies ban people that are constantly winning or even restrict them on how much they spend.

Happened to me with Bet365. I had a restriction placed on my maximum bets.

 

[jo7resh]

Happened to me with Bet365. I had a restriction placed on my maximum bets.

Bet 365 seem to do it to everyone
That's why have tab shops are the best you can just bet tote for horse for however much you want and always get on for sports bet

 

[LFC Bulldogs]

Happened to me with Bet365. I had a restriction placed on my maximum bets.

typical gambling companies. They want to take your money but not give you money.
Did they give you an official excuse why they are restricting your account?

 

[Stinky Wizzleteats]

No, no reason. But I do suspect why they did do it.

 

[Captain Kickass]

The learning / frustration continues ... I could sit here and whinge deluxe about near misses (as an example, two 4th leg soccer bets have had goals in last 10mins), but I refuse to focus on the negatives.

- 12 bets so far. All 4 legs, System 3 & 4.
- All four correct (Maximum return) = 0
- 3/4 correct (Partial return) = 7
- 1/4 or 2/4 correct (Nil return) = 5
- F*cked it all up = 0

- Start balance = $2000
- Current balance = $1777

Six different racing multis coming over the next two days.

 

[Lov_Dog]

The learning / frustration continues ... I could sit here and whinge deluxe about near misses (as an example, two 4th leg soccer bets have had goals in last 10mins), but I refuse to focus on the negatives.

- 12 bets so far. All 4 legs, System 3 & 4.
- All four correct (Maximum return) = 0
- 3/4 correct (Partial return) = 7
- 1/4 or 2/4 correct (Nil return) = 5
- F*cked it all up = 0

- Start balance = $2000
- Current balance = $1777

Six different racing multis coming over the next two days.

Good luck CK, keep us posted on your winning ways!!

~c.

 

[Pom_81]

Have heard stories where online companies ban people that are constantly winning or even restrict them on how much they spend

But I doubt this would of happen if it was just a once off with this guy betting. And considering he place the bet and they accepted, they would of have to pay.

My accounts with most major bookies have been stopped from being eligible for any bonus bets. I would only bet when their bonus bets skewed things in my favour and so was running at a longterm profit. Their solution? Invoke the "professional gambler" clause and make the account ineligible for all bonus bet offers.

Got that from Tom Waterhouse/Centrebet/Sportingbet/William Hill (same company) from Sportsbet and from Ladbrokes.