Rodzilla
Terry Lamb 1996
- Joined
- Dec 22, 2004
- Messages
- 42,565
- Reaction score
- 6,159
no when you bet on 3 games you only have 12.5% chance to pick 3 correct, 37.5% to pick 2 correct, 37.5% to pick 1 correct and 12.5% to pick 0 correct, and its only a 6% to pick all 4 winners in 4 gamesLet's look at it this way. A simplistic bet. Say we have 8 teams playing each with a 50/50 chance of winning.
If we bet on one game we have:
50% chance of winning
We bet on two legs we have:
33.3333% chance of winning both games correct, 33.333% chance of getting 1 game correct, 33.333% chance of getting no games correct
We bet on 3 games:
25% chance of getting all games correct, 25% chance of getting 2/3 games correct, 25% chance of getting 1/3 games correct, 25% chance of getting no games correct
We bet on 4 games we have:
20% chance of getting all games correct, 20% chance of getting 3/4 games correct, 20% chance of getting 2/4 games correct, 20% chance of getting 1/4 games correct, 20% chance of getting no games correct.
So the 4 leg bet we have odds of 20%
The 3 leg bets each have odds of 25%
I'm guessing it would be something like $1.90 vs $2.20 in which case the odds would increase slightly. Effectively you'd be looking at about 22% for the 4 leg and 28% for the 3 leg.
If we rule out the 4 leg game we have odds of 28% per game which become exponential per game you are trying to win.
lets say you bet on the home team for 3 games
these are all the possible outcomes in those 3 games (H for home win, A for away win)
HHH
HHA
HAH
AHH
HAA
AHA
AAH
AAA