Coronavirus.

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Hacky McAxe

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But that brings in another factor. We're still not sure if you can become immune to Covid-19. South Korea has found repeat cases but that could be an error. Recent research suggests that the repeat cases aren't repeat cases. Instead the test is picking up old, dead virus.

Then there's the other issue. SARS (the original one back in 2003) which is a similar Coronavirus to this one (less infective, more deadly). The immunity from SARS vaccine only lasts 40 months. If this virus is the same then a second wave in Sweden will be exactly the same unless a vaccine is developed soon. In which case, Australia will still have a lot fewer deaths.
 

Hacky McAxe

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There's many other things to consider though. For example...

When we test for Covid-19 antibodies, we generally test for 2 types of antibodies. The ones that affect the upper respiratory tract and the ones that affect the lower respiratory tract. The problem is that the virus could pass from your upper respiratory tract to your lower respiratory tract then to your lungs, infecting your lungs, and you develop antibodies. You're effectively immune but it won't show up in antibody tests.

Also, if you only have antibodies in your lungs, or if you have them in your lungs and lower respiratory tract but not your upper respiratory tract then you could be immune, but still able to carry the virus and spread it.

Also, the upper respiratory tract antibodies could last 40 months (or permanently) while the others could only last a few months.

Still way too many unknowns.
 

Riggs80

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It’s time to become like the muricans and start protesting and do whatever we want . Apparently they looking at allowing international students back in the country . We can’t go interstate , can’t go to pubs , can’t go to funerals but they want to bring in people from countries that either have virus , gave us the virus or bullshitting about virus numbers. Why the fark we gone through this shit .
 

Dawgfather

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"effective" is a relative term.

Do they work to reduce immediate deaths?

Yes. This is evident in the countries that didn't induce full lockdown vs the countries that did. Prime example. Compare two countries that got the virus around the same time and made the lockdown decision around the same time:

- Australia = full lockdown = 95 deaths out of a population of 25 million

- Sweden = no lockdown = 2,679 deaths out of a population of 10.23 million

For translation, Sweden's strategy in Australia could have resulted in at least 6,000 deaths.

But, the debate comes in when it comes to long term effects. Sweden may reach herd immunity while Australia won't. That means that Australia could still get those 6,000 deaths in the long run if a vaccine isn't found soon.
Sweden is one example, but how about America (or even New York as a specific example). Didn't they (both) go into full lock down, yet look at the number of deaths they have. Same with Italy and Spain, I thought they both had full lock downs?
 

LordSidious66

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It’s time to become like the muricans and start protesting and do whatever we want . Apparently they looking at allowing international students back in the country . We can’t go interstate , can’t go to pubs , can’t go to funerals but they want to bring in people from countries that either have virus , gave us the virus or bullshitting about virus numbers. Why the fark we gone through this shit .
Thats what will happen if they allow foreign students in. Protests will occur like they are in America.
 

Kaz

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Sweden is one example, but how about America (or even New York as a specific example). Didn't they (both) go into full lock down, yet look at the number of deaths they have. Same with Italy and Spain, I thought they both had full lock downs?
America the planes were still arriving, same with UK.

Bit hard to stop it when people are still arriving by plane.

Pretty sure the UK aren't testing the people arriving. Probably the same with USA.
 

Hacky McAxe

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Sweden is one example, but how about America (or even New York as a specific example). Didn't they (both) go into full lock down, yet look at the number of deaths they have. Same with Italy and Spain, I thought they both had full lock downs?
Italy, Spain and NY all went into lockdown late. They all had many deaths before they started lockdown. Basically put, the virus had already spread. The lockdowns did slow it down though.

UK made the same mistake. They didn't go into lockdown until it was too late. The difference with the UK is that they were prepared. They chose not to go into lockdown until the virus had a decent foothold because they thought the Sweden approach was a good idea.
 

dogluva

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This ain’t over by a LONG shot, I mean we have low numbers in NZ, but as said. It cloud go on for another two years and there is bound to be a second or third wave which will be even worse an cause more deaths, like past pandemics..!!

this world will never be the same again.
The world as we know it has changed. Reports that buffets etc. are a thing of the past and that protocols put in place now will be relaxed but still evident in many ways.
 

dogluva

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I shake my head at the Ruby Princess.. Yeah those complaining..lol..unbelievable!!!
The problems there go deeper than just the fact that people were allowed off the Ruby, the cruise companies are well aware that their vessels are a haven for infections and illness. I have heard stories pre COVID relating to gastro bugs etc. The problem is a lot of people in a confined environment and a lack of consistent and proper cleaning procedures. No social distancing, no constant wiping down of surfaces etc.

No complaints from the cruisers whilst on the ships because they could have their unlimited take out food, wine, beer and wandering the ship at all hours...At least whilst confined they had three square meals a day, a roof over their heads and were insulated from the possibility of catching the virus plus they had 24 hr medical watch and care.... and the biggie they could not spread the virus easily if they had it thus saving others unnecessary danger...
 

Mr 95%

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The problems there go deeper than just the fact that people were allowed off the Ruby, the cruise companies are well aware that their vessels are a haven for infections and illness. I have heard stories pre COVID relating to gastro bugs etc. The problem is a lot of people in a confined environment and a lack of consistent and proper cleaning procedures. No social distancing, no constant wiping down of surfaces etc.

No complaints from the cruisers whilst on the ships because they could have their unlimited take out food, wine, beer and wandering the ship at all hours...At least whilst confined they had three square meals a day, a roof over their heads and were insulated from the possibility of catching the virus plus they had 24 hr medical watch and care.... and the biggie they could not spread the virus easily if they had it thus saving others unnecessary danger...
Those cruise ships are Petrie dishes of diseases..always have been..sheesh! You are exactly right about those whingers, exactly.
 

wendog33

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Yeah I know. But these weren’t masks he said was more a shield, and one bloke had goggles on like he was going scuba diving.
CCP agents sent out to further their work :grinning:
 

belmore_utd

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Thats what will happen if they allow foreign students in. Protests will occur like they are in America.
Not a chance. Ofcourse many Australians will ignore lockdown restrictions for their own personal benefit. But as a society we are too weak minded to band together in protest over blatant government and corporate corruption, let alone something most people are unsure or are divided on.
Before Covid many of our civil liberties have already been eroded and amended without a whimper, we continued to watch on whilst the people's assets and natural reserves are sold off and plundered, nobody has done anything meaningful about the increasing incursion of authority figures and their fines and pay to play rules looming large over the everyday lives of the people who actually contribute to the country with actual goods and services. Where's the organised blow up about the degradation of our education system, electricity prices and the foot on your head triple dipping tax rorts.

Not a chance in hell of a protest.

Unless ofcourse the lockdown was depicted as homosexual or racist, then we might see some picket sign action on both sides of the divide hahaha.
 

Scoooby

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NO new cases 0 for second day in a row NZ, that’s actually pretty awesome too hear/see I have to say.
 

Raysie

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That's an amazing effort. Do we now how many active cases there are?

NZ could end up successfully eradicating the virus completely if borders are kept closed.
 

south of heaven

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That's an amazing effort. Do we now how many active cases there are?

NZ could end up successfully eradicating the virus completely if borders are kept closed.
Nz has around or just under 200 active cases
Australia around the 800 mark which is great the down side our boarders to us Europe ect won't be open for a very long time
 

JayBee

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Decent article I found on the subject.
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Why does the coronavirus fatality rate differ so much around the world?

Inadequate testing, ageing populations and overwhelmed health systems may be key factors for higher death rates, experts say.


Australia has almost bent the curve.

A little over a month ago, the country was seeing more than 400 new cases a day. It is now down to single figures. By that metric, Australia is doing exceptionally well.

But, curiously, Australia is also doing well in terms of our case fatality rate (CFR), a widely used metric measuring the number of reported deaths per number of confirmed cases.

Australia has one of the world’s lowest, with 89 deaths from 6746 cases, giving it a CFR of 1.33%. That is similar to widely-praised Taiwan, which has kept the virus to a 1.4% rate.

That puts Australia at around the range estimated in a Lancet Infectious Diseases study, which found the overall CFR of the new coronavirus was likely to be 1.38%. That figure conceals a significant age gradient, however, with people far more likely to succumb the older they are.

But the CFR sits within a hugely broad range around the globe.

The world’s highest current CFR rate is now in France, where 18.65% of people known to be infected with the virus have died. Belgium and Italy also have double-digit CFR rates, while the US – which has the largest outbreak of anywhere in the world – has a CFR of 5.76% from more than one million cases.

How can it be that a single virus with a low mutation rate can be more or less lethal in different countries?


Speed and effectiveness of government responses is a vital factor. Stamping out an outbreak early – as Singapore and Taiwan have done – can keep death rates low through minimising cases and reducing impact on the healthcare system.

But experts say an often-overlooked cause is the fact testing is being done at widely differing rates around the world – and the fact that, in many countries, testing is unlikely to catch even a fraction of asymptomatic cases.

Belgium’s seemingly high death rate, for example, is likely due to the fact it includes deaths likely – but not proven – to be due to the coronavirus, with a government spokesperson claiming their approach is more accurate, and that other countries are undercounting fatalities.

University of Queensland virologist Ian Mackay told newsGP that testing is likely to be the key.

‘My crude presumption has been that in jurisdictions where rates of death are above 1%, there has been too little testing to capture the denominator,’ he said.

‘I think the majority of these examples can be traced back to too little testing or starting testing too late in that jurisdiction’s epidemic.’

The true fatality rate in many developing countries, where widespread testing has been unavailable, may never be known. But even in wealthy countries, the actual number of people infected may remain a mystery.

‘The true number of cases will never be known,’ Associate Professor Mackay said.

The UK-based Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine (CEBM) provides a list of reasons the CFR varies so greatly in an article published in March:

  • The number of cases detected by testing will vary considerably by country
  • Selection bias can mean those with severe disease are preferentially tested
  • There may be delays between symptoms onset and deaths, which can lead to underestimation of the CFR
  • There may be factors that account for increased death rates such as coinfection, more inadequate healthcare and patient demographics
  • There may be increased rates of smoking or comorbidities amongst the fatalities
  • Differences in how deaths are attributed to coronavirus – dying with the disease (association) is not the same as dying from the disease (causation)
Professor of Evidence-Based Medicine at Bond University Paul Glasziou told newsGP the CEBM analysis showed these factors could skew the CFR by almost 100-fold.

‘The CFR is confounded by both missed cases from the denominator and insufficient time for deaths to occur missing from the numerator,’ Professor Glasziou said.

newsGP examines a number of these factors.

Testing not catching anywhere near every case
If someone dies of the virus without being tested, they aren’t counted in the CFR. Similarly, if someone contracts the virus and gets well by themselves without being tested, they aren’t counted as a survivor.

That makes a second indicator – the Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) – more important, given this indicator captures the rate of deaths among confirmed cases, as well as those with undetected disease (asymptomatic and untested).

But the IFR is harder to pin down, given studies have estimated the actual number of infections is much higher than the number of people proven to have the virus through testing.

Ranges for the actual number of asymptomatic versus symptomatic infections vary significantly. One British Medical Journal study puts the asymptomatic rate at four times the symptomatic rate.

Meanwhile, a widely publicised pre-print study estimates the number of undetected cases to be as much as 50 times greater than confirmed cases, based on antibody testing. This higher figure has been contested, however.

Immunology Professor Peter Doherty told newsGP this study seems ‘wildly off’.

‘I doubt very much that’s right. It might be more like 2–3 times higher, based on South Korea’s testing regime,’ he said.

‘If that figure of 50 times higher was true, we would start to see the disease turning down with herd immunity. But we’re not seeing that at all.

‘The turndown is due to better social distancing.’

Professor Glasziou agrees.

‘There was a lot of interest in that study, as it could have taken into account infections missed by the testing regime,’ he said. ‘If it was correct, it meant the number actually infected was far larger than we thought.

‘But there were lots of flaws with that study – the volunteer bias and the fact it could be accounted for by false positives.

With a CFR of 3.19%, Germany’s success relative to many other nations in Europe may be linked to a decision to test early and broadly, to find emerging cases as quickly as possible.

Overwhelmed health systems
‘There are likely to be instances where very overwhelmed healthcare services have been unable to care for all severe COVID-19 cases or where excess deaths have occurred because COVID-19 reduced the resources needed to care for different acute illnesses and injuries,’ Associate Professor Mackay said.

The worst affected regions of Italy, Iran and the US have experienced periods where the numbers of serious and critically ill patients needing hospital care have overwhelmed the system. In these situations, larger numbers of deaths are likely – boosting the CFR.

Professor Glasziou said that, to date, we have not seen the worst-case predictions of deaths eventuate. But what we are seeing, he suggests, is geographic pockets where health systems have been swamped.

Professor Glasziou stresses that the pandemic is far from over, with second waves occurring in some Asian countries that had appeared to control rates.

New hotspots are emerging, such as Brazil, where low testing rates and denial of the severity of the virus at high levels have led to hospitals in major cities becoming overwhelmed by patients, with the death toll expected to surge.

The virus is more lethal to vulnerable groups
CEBM researchers suggest comorbidities and age may partly explain why some areas are particularly badly hit, such as Italy.

They note that Italy has the second-oldest population in the world, with the highest rates of deaths due to drug-resistant microbes, as well as a high rate of smoking, a factor associated with poor survival.

Hypertension, cardiovascular disease, chronic respiratory conditions, diabetes and cancer are also risk factors.

Nations with older populations – who are more likely to have comorbidities – are likely to be more at risk.

What can we learn?
Looking to the future, one option may be to use all-cause mortality to better gauge the impact of the coronavirus.

Official statistics are ‘vastly underestimating’ the true death toll across the world, according to Melbourne University epidemiologist Professor Alan Lopez.

‘The all-cause death rate is the very best way to assess the overall net impact of COVID-19 on mortality,’ he told the ABC.

Countries around the world are now turning to this method to gauge the impact of undiagnosed cases.

The Financial Times estimates there have been at least 122,000 more deaths than in a usual year across 14 countries, suggesting that the true death toll may be substantially higher.

While some of these deaths may be due to other causes than the coronavirus, the fact the death rate is so much higher than a normal year indicates the pandemic is playing a major role.

In the badly hit UK, for example, the number of excess deaths is surging.

One in 17 residents in aged care homes in the UK may have died in just five weeks, the New Stateman reports, while the ABC reports the number of ‘excess deaths’ – deaths above a usual year – have more than doubled in recent weeks, with 22,351 in the week ending 17 April. A normal year would have 10,000 deaths.

Professor Glasziou said that scanning all-cause mortality for the coronavirus in Australia would only show a small increase, given how few cases the nation has had.

‘But in New York now, you can see a huge increase in all-cause mortality,’ he said. ‘That’s suggesting either an underreporting of COVID-19 deaths, or increases in other causes of mortality because people are avoiding healthcare.

‘We don’t know which one that is.’
 

south of heaven

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Get used to the covid app when restraunts reopen you will need it,when you want to go interstate you will need it.
Had to laugh a dumb **** at work whinging about it and how it's an invasion of privacy. Says the bloke who takes a picture of his bacon and egg roll and puts it up on social media and the 45 posts a day informing total stranger's of his every move
 

Raysie

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I cant install the damn app on my phone anyway.

My Play Store is still set to NZ even though living in Melbourne. If I change it to Australia it wont allow me to change it back to NZ for another 365 days and I plan on moving back in a few months...
 

Dawgfather

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Get used to the covid app when restraunts reopen you will need it,when you want to go interstate you will need it.
Had to laugh a dumb c*** at work whinging about it and how it's an invasion of privacy. Says the bloke who takes a picture of his bacon and egg roll and puts it up on social media and the 45 posts a day informing total stranger's of his every move
I read today that it will be illegal and with harsh penalties for any business to refuse service on the basis of whether or not someone has the app.

For the record, I also have no downloaded it.
 

south of heaven

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I read today that it will be illegal and with harsh penalties for any business to refuse service on the basis of whether or not someone has the app.

For the record, I also have no downloaded it.
I don't have a problem with it,there will be a lot of new changes we will have to accept and get used to
 
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