Coronavirus.

Status
Not open for further replies.

Hacky McAxe

Super Moderator
Staff member
Moderator
Gilded
Joined
May 7, 2011
Messages
37,157
Reaction score
29,680
I know you're just quoting some dude, so it's not you saying it.

But how does anyone get from 3000 deaths in China, to suddenly saying that millions could die ?

I think the problem with these big news stories is that suddenly media outlets go crawling for anyone who they can call an expert and who will sprout out random stats that generally mean nothing.
He used a mathematical virus spread model that was developed a few years back to predict pandemics. You'd have to ask the CDC, Harvard, John's Hopkins University and the others who developed it. They should be able to explain how it works.

I'm not entirely sure myself. Some of the similar stuff is covered in the Lancet article I shared, but from my understanding a lot of it comes down to replication rate. Basically how easily it can transfer to people based on:

- replication rate (how many people will be infected by each person on average). A replication rate of 1 means each person will infect one other person. The rate of Coronavirus is predicted to be 2-3

- If it can infect before it shows symptoms. SARS for example didn't become contagious until it showed symptoms, hence the low infection rate. Influenza does become contagious before it shows symptoms. Coronavirus is similar to influenza in that case

- whether low symptom or asymptomatic cases can spread the virus. In the case of Coronavirus the current prediction is that 80% of the cases are low or asymptomatic which means it has a really high spread rate, but fortunately it means it has a much lower kill rate than predicted

- current data based on spread so far. The Lancet article points out that this is based heavily on the China outbreak but there's many unknowns with that outbreak and there's still much we don't know about the kill rate and infection rate

I'm sure there's several hundred other variables involved.
 

Hacky McAxe

Super Moderator
Staff member
Moderator
Gilded
Joined
May 7, 2011
Messages
37,157
Reaction score
29,680
The media have had a field day with this. I don't assume that it's not something to be concerned about. But the over reaction that it's caused needs to be fought with sensible information. And the media aren't as interested in providing reasoned views as much as they are in keeping the hysteria going to ensure that people keep on viewing clickbait stories.

This is an extension of the idea that "if it bleeds, it leads" theory. In advertising, sex sells. But with news media fear sells.
Most of the media have been generally on the side of anti-panic. Many news sources posted stuff like "fighting misinformation on Coronavirus"
 

Blue_boost

Kennel Enthusiast
Joined
May 19, 2014
Messages
4,081
Reaction score
2,263
The media have had a field day with this. I don't assume that it's not something to be concerned about. But the over reaction that it's caused needs to be fought with sensible information. And the media aren't as interested in providing reasoned views as much as they are in keeping the hysteria going to ensure that people keep on viewing clickbait stories.

This is an extension of the idea that "if it bleeds, it leads" theory. In advertising, sex sells. But with news media fear sells.
Ol mate didn't get any toilet paper , playing it down... He's down to his last 2 roles and no-one has stock. He's sweating at the moment, hoping no-one buys anymore so he can grab a roll.

Lesson learnt is dont live your life pay cheque to pay cheque, toilet roll to toilet roll. Stock up.
 

Blue_boost

Kennel Enthusiast
Joined
May 19, 2014
Messages
4,081
Reaction score
2,263
Woolworths say there is plenty supply dont panic .. yet they can't supply , neither can anyone else

It's survival of the fittest and the toilet paper buyers are two-three steps ahead at the moment
 

Mr 95%

Kennel Immortal
Gilded
Joined
Apr 13, 2013
Messages
22,528
Reaction score
23,591
I have to admit, when I read "Israel stepping it up" I fully expected it to be an article about Folau saying that Coronavirus is God's punishment for same-sex marriage.
I thought it was Folau saying the virus was the wrath of God for Gay marriage..oh and getting drunk..
 

MatstaDogg

The Bearded Baker
Premium Member
Joined
Sep 28, 2008
Messages
9,712
Reaction score
8,746
Clementine Ford was hiding books on the train the other day to promote retarded women authors no one cares about.if you got desperate you could wipe your arse with that ,but I assume the pages would already be full of shit
Can I wipe it with her face the cow mongering man hating shit stain.
 

Mr 95%

Kennel Immortal
Gilded
Joined
Apr 13, 2013
Messages
22,528
Reaction score
23,591
If I get this virus..in the first line of Andy Weir’s character Mark Watney in his book The Martian ‘I’m pretty much fucked. That’s my considered opinion. Fucked.’
 

The_Chimpster

Kennel Addict
Joined
Mar 12, 2015
Messages
5,748
Reaction score
5,439
Woolworths say there is plenty supply dont panic .. yet they can't supply , neither can anyone else

It's survival of the fittest and the toilet paper buyers are two-three steps ahead at the moment

This line is getting old blue balls.

Think you need some new material
 

Hacky McAxe

Super Moderator
Staff member
Moderator
Gilded
Joined
May 7, 2011
Messages
37,157
Reaction score
29,680
If I get this virus..in the first line of Andy Weir’s character Mark Watney in his book The Martian ‘I’m pretty much fucked. That’s my considered opinion. Fucked.’
Completely off topic but you should like this


Side note, they have a podcast interview that goes for about an hour as well
 

Mr 95%

Kennel Immortal
Gilded
Joined
Apr 13, 2013
Messages
22,528
Reaction score
23,591
Completely off topic but you should like this


Side note, they have a podcast interview that goes for about an hour as well
Thanks Hacky..I love that book and movie..it is brilliant! You know all the geeky scientists went all over it..and found it pretty scientifically sound..superb!

update..just watched video..Andy Weir is great...so is Joe! Will watch Podcast.. thanks again..

ps..Joe looks like Mitchell Pearce..
 
Last edited:

Lov_Dog

Kennel Enthusiast
Joined
Apr 8, 2008
Messages
2,994
Reaction score
1,697
I have to admit, when I read "Israel stepping it up" I fully expected it to be an article about Folau saying that Coronavirus is God's punishment for same-sex marriage.
@Hacky McAxe .. LOL .. you know I gave the optimistic rainbow just for Folau's mention 8-)
 

Hacky McAxe

Super Moderator
Staff member
Moderator
Gilded
Joined
May 7, 2011
Messages
37,157
Reaction score
29,680
Thanks Hacky..I love that book and movie..it is brilliant! You know all the geeky scientists went all over it..and found it pretty scientifically sound..superb!

update..just watched video..Andy Weir is great...so is Joe! Will watch Podcast.. thanks again..

ps..Joe looks like Mitchell Pearce..
Jump on a podcast app and search "answers with Joe" then look for the episode called "Conversations with Joe - Andy Weir"

It's really interesting. The most interesting part I found was that while he was writing the book he would upload parts of it to forums and critics and scientists would go over it and point out any scientific errors he made so he could fix them up while working on it.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top