Coronavirus.

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south of heaven

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They have blown this shit out of the water. There are so many more airborne diseases that kill... why aren't they making a big deal out of them?
Good I hope I get 3 seats on the plane to myself and check ins a breeze
 

KambahOne

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We need a stronger word than retard. It just doesn't convey the amount of stupid that needs to be associated with these people.
 

south of heaven

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Question for anyone in the know with work place shit,mate called up we going to new Zealand on Thursday his work just told him if you go ,you must quarantine for 2 weeks afterwards obviously unpaid .
Can work places put these rules into place with a country that has 5 people with the virus?
 

Hacky McAxe

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They have blown this shit out of the water. There are so many more airborne diseases that kill... why aren't they making a big deal out of them?
They do. They push people to get vaccinated every year but people ignore it.

The important thing to consider about the Coronavirus is that it's another cold/flu type virus. That means eventually it'll be like any cold or flu virus. But right now it's a problem because of two main factors:

1) We don't have a vaccine for it

2) We don't have immunity to it

It's not even that strong a virus. It generally kills old people and people with weakened immune systems. The same people who would die to the flu.

The problem is that as above, we can't vaccinate against it and there's no developed immunity against it so there's no heard immunity like we get with the flu. That means that old people are at much higher risk.

This has been the case for all pandemics through history. For example:

- The Spanish flu spread around the world in 1918 infecting around 500 million people and killing at least 50 million people. That would be the equivilent of it killing 200 million today. If that same flu came back today it would kill a fraction of that amount 'cause we've developed an immunity to it

- The Black Plague killed up to 200 million people in Europe. Approximately 50% of the population on it's first hit. When it came back, it killed around 10%. Next it killed less than 5%. Then less than 1%. That's because the survivors had developed immunity

Coronavirus is nowhere near as bad as those but it has something that they didn't. Something that epidemeologists fear. Asymptomatic carriers. In fact they think that there's so many asymptomatic carriers that we could be missing hundreds of thousands of cases. This makes the disease very easy to spread. Based on testing done in South Korea which has the most thorough testing, we now believe the kill rate is around 0.65%. Less than 1%. But the infection count is over 20 times what we have confirmed.

What that all means?

If you're under 60 and not immuno-compromised then you have nothing to worry about. But for those with weak immune systems and the very old, they have a high probability of accidentally contracting the virus and there's not much we can do to protect them.
 

Hacky McAxe

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BTW, that's why some are calling it the "Boomer Virus". A dark joke but kind of accurate as it's only going to kill off the old people. Hopefully not too many.
 

Hacky McAxe

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Here we go guys...

https://www.livescience.com/new-coronavirus-compare-with-flu.html

The new coronavirus outbreak has made headlines in recent weeks, but there's another viral epidemic hitting countries around the world: flu season. But how do these viruses compare, and which one is really more worrisome?

The flu, also called influenza. In the U.S. alone, the flu has caused an estimated 34 million illnesses, 350,000 hospitalizations and 20,000 deaths this season, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

That said, scientists have studied seasonal flu for decades. So, despite the danger of it, we know a lot about flu viruses and what to expect each season. In contrast, very little is known about the new coronavirus and the disease it causes, dubbed COVID-19, because it's so new. This means COVID-19 is something of a wild card in terms of how far it will spread and how many deaths it will cause.
Yep. We honestly don't know.

By the way, the flu has a kill rate of 0.1% of those that show symptoms. Much lower than the 3.4% of the Coronavirus. But that's immunity for you.
 

Hacky McAxe

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Good I hope I get 3 seats on the plane to myself and check ins a breeze
We were planning to go to America and flight prices have dropped recently but we were worried about potentially having to cancel our flight if events in America were cancelled. The United airlines announced that any flights booked between now and the end of the month would get free transfers or cancellations. Was cheering until I saw that they raised the price of flights by around $300. About the same cost as cancellations.
 

Hacky McAxe

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New word - Plyron - meaning - 'a complete and utter moron who buys copious amounts of toilet paper at the first sign of danger'.
Threeplyron. A complete and utterm moron who thinks that the world will run out of toilet paper, but still won't touch anything less than 3-ply
 

Hacky McAxe

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Question for anyone in the know with work place shit,mate called up we going to new Zealand on Thursday his work just told him if you go ,you must quarantine for 2 weeks afterwards obviously unpaid .
Can work places put these rules into place with a country that has 5 people with the virus?
Pretty sure they can't do it unless the government enforces it. That said, it depends on the work they do. For example, hospitals and aging care homes have a higher duty of care and can stop an employee working if they really believe there is an issue.

That said, there's more cases in Australia so if he took it for the fair work ombudsman, they'd side with him over the employer.
 

KambahOne

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Question for anyone in the know with work place shit,mate called up we going to new Zealand on Thursday his work just told him if you go ,you must quarantine for 2 weeks afterwards obviously unpaid .
Can work places put these rules into place with a country that has 5 people with the virus?
It depends on their employment contract, but they'd have a hard time making the employee take the time off as unpaid if the company is enforcing the quarantine. The Administrative Appeals Tribunal would nearly always rule in the employees favour in this situation.
 

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Hacky quoting that source talking about 50,000-250,000 deaths due to Coronavirus is like Oprah when she said:

"Hello, everybody. AIDS has both sexes running scared. Research studies now project that one in five--listen to me, hard to believe--one if five heterosexuals could be dead from AIDS at the end of the next three years. That's by 1990. One in five. It is no longer just a gay disease. Believe me."

Absolute garbage and fear mongering.
 

Hacky McAxe

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Hacky quoting that source talking about 50,000-250,000 deaths due to Coronavirus is like Oprah when she said:

"Hello, everybody. AIDS has both sexes running scared. Research studies now project that one in five--listen to me, hard to believe--one if five heterosexuals could be dead from AIDS at the end of the next three years. That's by 1990. One in five. It is no longer just a gay disease. Believe me."

Absolute garbage and fear mongering.
Not fear mongering. Just loose predictions by epidemiologists. I've also stated stuff that supports why we shouldn't panic about this.

Do you want me to ignore any details or reports that sound scary?
 

Hacky McAxe

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Here's a Lancet journal article on containing the outbreak. It brings up some interesting points about the virus. For example:


The second unknown is the whether infectiousness starts before onset of symptoms. The incubation period for COVID-19 is about 5–6 days.
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,
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Combining this time with a similar length serial interval suggests there might be considerable presymptomatic infectiousness (appendix 1). For reference, influenza A has a presymptomatic infectiousness of about 1–2 days, whereas SARS had little or no presymptomatic infectiousness.
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There have been few clinical studies to measure COVID-19 viraemia and how it changes over time in individuals. In one study of 17 patients with COVID-19, peak viraemia seems to be at the end of the incubation period,
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pointing to the possibility that viraemia might be high enough to trigger transmission for 1–2 days before onset of symptoms. If these patterns are verified by more extensive clinical virological studies, COVID-19 would be expected to be more like influenza A than SARS. For SARS, peak infectiousness took place many days after first symptoms, hence the success of quarantine of patients with SARS soon after symptoms started
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and the lack of success for this measure for influenza A and possibly for COVID-19.
The third uncertainty is whether there are a large number of asymptomatic cases of COVID-19. Estimates suggest that about 80% of people with COVID-19 have mild or asymptomatic disease, 14% have severe disease, and 6% are critically ill,
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implying that symptom-based control is unlikely to be sufficient unless these cases are only lightly infectious.

Https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30567-5/fulltext
 

Hacky McAxe

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This covers the predictions by Harvard Epidemiologist Mark Lipsitch:

https://www.vox.com/science-and-hea...ovid-19-science-outbreak-ends-endemic-vaccine

You might have seen an alarming headline in the Atlantic recently: You’re likely to get the coronavirus.

The assertion was based off an estimate from Harvard epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch, who predicted some 40 to 70 percent of all adults around the world would catch the virus within a year. Lipsitch has since revised that estimate downward and with a greater range: He now estimates it’s “plausible” that 20 to 60 percent of adults will catch the disease. (If this comes to pass, while being bad, it’s not apocalyptic: Most cases of Covid-19. are mild. But it does mean millions could die.)

In an email, Lipsitch says his model “assumes that the transmission in the rest of the world is at least fairly similar to that in China.” But “projections should be made with humility,” he adds, as there’s a lot still to uncover that will impact the forecast (like the role children play in spreading the disease).

The bottom line of his modeling, though, is that a sizable portion of the human population is at risk of catching this virus. It might not come to pass — especially if a vaccine or other treatment is developed. But it is possible.

Christina Animashaun/Vox
If the virus cannot be contained, Lipsitch says, the only way for this to get under control is for 50 percent of people to become immune to it.
 

south of heaven

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27 dead in Iran alcohol poisoning after hearing drinking kills the coronavirus better than stocking up on toilet paper I guess
 
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