Storm and Roosters show how roster stability can underpin success

[MatstaDogg]

Storm and Roosters show how roster stability can underpin success.

https://www.nrl.com/news/2019/12/17...ow-how-roster-stability-can-underpin-success/

The two best roster-managing clubs in the NRL showed again in 2019 how a long-term plan can generate success while others proved it's not as simple as retention equals success.

Success from stability
NRL.com Stats has crunched the numbers and found a strong correlation between the percentage of 2017 players retained and games won in 2019, with only the Cowboys bucking the trend.


No club had more of its 2017 squad still on the books in 2019 than Melbourne, with almost 59% retention over that two-year period helping them to 20 wins and a minor premiership.

Three other clubs with some of the highest retention rates joined Melbourne in finishing top-four on the ladder: the Roosters (second) had almost 52% retention, the Rabbitohs (third) around 48% and the Raiders (fourth) had 50%.

There is no question the Storm and Roosters have been the best clubs in terms of list management and investing in the right players over recent years.

Both squads have been bolstered by a huge proportion of players who have come through the junior system at each club.

Of the Roosters' top 30 this year, 22 played junior football at the Tricolours, while 21 of the 29 players to feature for the Storm in 2019 debuted at the club.

The trick there, of course, is identifying, recruiting and nurturing the right talent at a young age and being selective with which marquee recruits you are prepared to pay top dollar for.

The three clubs to significantly outperform pre-season expectations were Canberra, Parramatta and Manly with the latter two occupying the last two spots on the ladder in 2018 before finishing fifth and sixth respectively in 2019.

Roster continuity arguably had plenty to do with that.

Parramatta (48%) and Manly (43%) got rewards for persisting with players even though 2018 results suggested each may have needed a roster cleanout.

The Bulldogs finished 2019 strongly with a new-look squad.©Gregg Porteous/NRL Photos
Upheaval leads to disruption
The lowest retention rates of any club were seen at Canterbury and Brisbane (both 32%) and it appears to be no coincidence both clubs were much better in the final third of the season once their overhauled squads started to click.


While Brisbane eventually snuck into eighth place there's no doubt it was still a disappointing season at Red Hill (particularly given the manner of their week one finals exit) while Canterbury were running last mid-year before hitting some form and finishing 12th.

The Knights had the third-lowest retention rate (33%) and had a tumultuous season in which a mid-year winning run was overshadowed by an awful start and arguably worse finish that resulted in coach Nathan Brown parting ways with the club.

There were three more clubs around 35%, including the bottom-two finishing clubs in the Titans (34.5%) and Dragons (37%) while Penrith (35.5%) had a season that mirrored Newcastle's in some ways with a horror start, mid-year run raising hopes of a finals berth before another slump.

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The Sharks, Dragons, Wests Tigers and Warriors were all in the lower half of the field for retention rates between 34% and 40% with only the Sharks scraping into the playoffs of those four.

Most of those – and particularly the Dragons, though they also had a lot of disruption as well – underperformed relative to their roster strength. A lack of continuity in key positions was arguably a factor in each case.

The odd one out
Even more so than Brisbane scraping into eighth with the lowest retention rate, the biggest outlier along the retention/success scale among all clubs was North Queensland, who had the second-highest retention rate at 56.7%.

In hindsight, a failure to refresh their roster in the time since their 2015 premiership win has hindered them over the past two seasons.

Father time seemed to catch up with some of those premiership heroes like Matt Scott, Justin O'Neill, Jake Granville, Scott Bolton and arguably Gavin Cooper, with a horror injury toll elsewhere in the squad proving a huge burden.

Whether the long-term deal to Kangaroos and Maroons star Val Holmes can help turn the tide remains to be seen.

 

[Psycho Doggie]

Thanks for posting this! Very very interesting. So far as statistics go this is strong. Any board not taking this information seriously has rocks in their heads.

Obviously player rosters change, but too much change too quickly is very likely to stuff you up.

 

[KambahOne]

Thanks for posting this! Very very interesting. So far as statistics go this is strong. Any board not taking this information seriously has rocks in their heads.

Obviously player rosters change, but too much change too quickly is very likely to stuff you up.

I'm thinking this could be the reason your club is taking its time with major recruitment decisions?

 

[Psycho Doggie]

I'm thinking this could be the reason your club is taking its time with major recruitment decisions?

It has to be a factor, possibly a major factor. It is far from unknown in the wider workplace that higher turn over levels are undesirable, or perhaps more relevantly, higher retention is desirable, so its very interesting to see such a compelling statistic coming out of the NRL.

 

[KambahOne]

It has to be a factor, possibly a major factor. It is far from unknown in the wider workplace that higher turn over levels are undesirable, or perhaps more relevantly, higher retention is desirable, so its very interesting to see such a compelling statistic coming out of the NRL.

I don't think this stat is coming out of the NRL. It's no coincidence that both the Roosters and Storm have boards heavy with corporate big wigs and this "stability" they refer to in the article is a big part of a successful corporation and I think that's why both clubs have adopted it. If you want a successful board, having ex players on it for the sack of it are long gone imo.

 

[Psycho Doggie]

I don't think this stat is coming out of the NRL.

The report is on nrl.com, and is apparently compiled by nrl.com stats. In any case, I was more referring to the fact that the simple correlation of staff retention with a clear scale indicative of success has been found to be true in the NRL. The data points are compact, the outliers represent 6.25% of the data points (1 team out of 16). It is compelling data.

 

[Howard Moon]

Two cheating teams have had the best roster stability...

imagine my surprise

 

[KambahOne]

The report is on nrl.com, and is apparently compiled by nrl.com stats. In any case, I was more referring to the fact that the simple correlation of staff retention with a clear scale indicative of success has been found to be true in the NRL. The data points are compact, the outliers represent 6.25% of the data points (1 team out of 16). It is compelling data.

You sound like a stats man so I'll take your analysis over mine.

 

[Motorhead]

Two cheating teams have had the best roster stability...

imagine my surprise

Yep.
"2 teams with bottomless pits of money, who get every favour under the sun from the NRL are the measuring stick for success".
The fucken imbecile who penned this bullshit article should be burned at the stake.

 

[Lov_Dog]

oh,
correlation ≠ causation

 

[doggieaaron]

Pretty sure if an employer would pay employees Way more than others no one would leave fmd what a load of bs

 

[B-Train]

The propaganda machine News Corp sure is in overdrive recently with numerous articles pointing out how "cap compliant" the Roosters and all of the other big clubs are..

It's almost as if they have some sort of agenda or something...

The NRL make cock fighting look like a legitimate sport.

 

[Kempsey Dog]

The propaganda machine News Corp sure is in overdrive recently with numerous articles pointing out how "cap compliant" the Roosters and all of the other big clubs are..

It's almost as if they have some sort of agenda or something...

The NRL make cock fighting look like a legitimate sport.

It's a fucking disgrace... The fact these articles are made proves they are cheats imo.

 

[Alan79]

Two cheating teams have had the best roster stability...

imagine my surprise

There is less motivation to alter the roster when you virtually have a representative side.

If they are serious about writing about statistics, why don't they write about how many teams winning premierships over the last ten years have been caught cheating the salary cap. Between Melbourne and the Sharts it's quite a lot. The Roosters haven't been caught yet, but the quality of their rosters exceptionally high for a cap compliant team.

The propaganda machine News Corp sure is in overdrive recently with numerous articles pointing out how "cap compliant" the Roosters and all of the other big clubs are..

It's almost as if they have some sort of agenda or something...

The NRL make cock fighting look like a legitimate sport.

The propaganda machine has been busy legitimising the grand final result too. It's probably a nice change from explaining away seemingly endless bad refereeing decisions to have come up with a fluff piece like this.

If the game keeps going the way it is I can't imagine that I'll be supporting it for that much longer. I used to watch at least two games a week, usually more and saw rep games as an almost religious event. Over the last 5 years questionable refereeing decisions have meant I just don't care for rep games. Haven't watched any for a long time now. I saw the referees decide the outcome of too many origin series in the recent past. And regular club games are hard to watch now too. The few I do watch from an unbiased position generally show just how one sided the refereeing makes the competition in any particular game. The policing of the 10m is rarely balanced, and whoever is getting the sharp end of the stick in this regard (one side being legally off side all game) usually also get screwed by questionable penalties if they're coping ok.

For a long while I've been expecting to hear that a referee has been attacked and hurt badly by an irate fan. It's going to happen one of these days. I'm almost certain of it.

 

[B-Train]

There is less motivation to alter the roster when you virtually have a representative side.

If they are serious about writing about statistics, why don't they write about how many teams winning premierships over the last ten years have been caught cheating the salary cap. Between Melbourne and the Sharts it's quite a lot. The Roosters haven't been caught yet, but the quality of their rosters exceptionally high for a cap compliant team.



The propaganda machine has been busy legitimising the grand final result too. It's probably a nice change from explaining away seemingly endless bad refereeing decisions to have come up with a fluff piece like this.

If the game keeps going the way it is I can't imagine that I'll be supporting it for that much longer. I used to watch at least two games a week, usually more and saw rep games as an almost religious event. Over the last 5 years questionable refereeing decisions have meant I just don't care for rep games. Haven't watched any for a long time now. I saw the referees decide the outcome of too many origin series in the recent past. And regular club games are hard to watch now too. The few I do watch from an unbiased position generally show just how one sided the refereeing makes the competition in any particular game. The policing of the 10m is rarely balanced, and whoever is getting the sharp end of the stick in this regard (one side being legally off side all game) usually also get screwed by questionable penalties if they're coping ok.

For a long while I've been expecting to hear that a referee has been attacked and hurt badly by an irate fan. It's going to happen one of these days. I'm almost certain of it.

I think more and more people feel like that by the day and are walking away from the game. Attendances and TV ratings are stagnating or declining.. Fans at the other clubs all see through this the same way we do.

It's clear that most long term fans have become frustrated with the way the code has deteriorated but the NRL keep angering the fans more by not policing the cap and with the constant rule changes and misinterpretations of those rules..

Up until a few years ago, I would watch about five games a week or more sometimes. Now i watch our game and one or two others, if that..

The scariest thing is how the media here are just mouthpieces for the big clubs and the NRL itself.. Which just confirms our doubts about the legitimacy of the competition.

There isn't anywhere near enough objective and unbiased journalism in this country. Even though the NRL thinks that the fans are dopes and will believe anything, articles like these are so desperate and transparent that even Stevie Wonder could see through them..

 

[Alan79]

There isn't anywhere near enough objective and unbiased journalism in this country. Even though the NRL thinks that the fans are dopes and will believe anything, articles like these are so desperate and transparent that Stevie Wonder could see through them..

It's not just the NRL that suffers from this lack of objective unbiased journalism. I saw this kind of thing during the lead up to the last election. Unfortunately it seems like people are still easily duped by the media in too many facets of life. I think that in something like sports, the fans actually see through the crap far more quickly than with politics.

 

[Como Dog]

It's not just the NRL that suffers from this lack of objective unbiased journalism. I saw this kind of thing during the lead up to the last election. Unfortunately it seems like people are still easily duped by the media in too many facets of life. I think that in something like sports, the fans actually see through the crap far more quickly than with politics.

Agreed, throw enough shit out there and people eventually start to believe it.

 

[wendog33]

I think more and more people feel like that by the day and are walking away from the game. Attendances and TV ratings are stagnating or declining.. Fans at the other clubs all see through this the same way we do.

It's clear that most long term fans have become frustrated with the way the code has deteriorated but the NRL keep angering the fans more by not policing the cap and with the constant rule changes and misinterpretations of those rules..

Up until a few years ago, I would watch about five games a week or more sometimes. Now i watch our game and one or two others, if that..

The scariest thing is how the media here are just mouthpieces for the big clubs and the NRL itself.. Which just confirms our doubts about the legitimacy of the competition.

There isn't anywhere near enough objective and unbiased journalism in this country. Even though the NRL thinks that the fans are dopes and will believe anything, articles like these are so desperate and transparent that even Stevie Wonder could see through them..

Exactly, the same media bias and one sided reporting with our politics here as well.

It's all due to Murdoch press and Nine media controlling all output to shape into their information hubs....tv, newspapers, social media.

Until there is a true independent and diversified media, we have to put up with this dumbing down, but it's ruining our footy and way of life for the quick buck.

Let's hope the gutter press improves when Rupert kicks the bucket and some real journos starting reporting without his race to the bottom DT etc.

 

[Alan79]

Agreed, throw enough shit out there and people eventually start to believe it.

There are far too many videos of cute animals, people doing stupid things etc for the bulk of the public to devote time to sorting out the fact from fiction in politics and world events. I think the liberals have really thrived since working that out. Any more than a three word slogan and it's too much like work for most people to care about.

Anyway I'm not going to take this further off track with politics. Like Btrainben said though. The media these days tend to be a mouthpiece for whichever biased group they want to represent. And that is both scary and ultimately sad.

 

[Alan79]

Exactly, the same media bias and one sided reporting with our politics here as well.

It's all due to Murdoch press and Nine media controlling all output to shape into their information hubs....tv, newspapers, social media.

Until there is a true independent and diversified media, we have to put up with this dumbing down, but it's ruining our footy and way of life for the quick buck.

Let's hope the gutter press improves when Rupert kicks the bucket and some real journos starting reporting without his race to the bottom DT etc.

Back in John Howard's time as pm he removed restrictions from monopolies owning a huge share of the media. So I think that even after Murdoch dies the rich will still find a way to funnel another group of spokespersons into the media ownership roles and the bias will go on.