Nathan Brown had a 26% win rate at the Knights (more than half a year with a competitive roster, almost one and a half years with Ponga and Pearce). That's worse than Pay's 34% win rate.
I couldn't tell you where we were expected to finish in 2018 (I do know we lost multiple players during the season) but I do know in 2019 we were tipped for the wooden spoon. We lost multiple players at the end of the 2018 season, the Morris brothers and Klemmer (not replaced). Even tho we were tipped for the wooden spoon in 2019 the team and Pay were able to finish 12th and three points outside the eight. From being tipped to finish wooden spooners that's an over achievement (not debatable). Even with this finish, due to no recruitment (nothing meaningful) and actually instead losing two players (CHN and Okunbor) who would of made the starting 13 we were tipped to come 15th in 2020. We also have to remember teams that under performed in 2019 still have a better roster on paper than us as well as other clubs recruiting (e.g. Tigers and Cowboys). To make things worse we lost two of our best and most influential players, Hopoate and Elliott (out for the season). This season is going as expected and the only thing we have to do (meet expectations) is avoid the wooden spoon (same as last year and why Pay was extended). We haven't been favourites to win any game we've played but we've come away with one win (the Dragons, who are better than us on paper).
Why have we scored an average of 14.1* points per game?
Our spine consists of Hopoate (injured), Foran, Wakeham and JMK. DWZ and Lewis have also been in the spine. That's one of the worst spines in the NRL. Foran has been injured for 1/3 of the NRL games played during his time at the club (on big money). JMK is possibly the worst starting hooker in the NRL. Good players = Hopoate and Foran. Wakeham on potential.
Does it get better in the backs? Meaney, Reimis, Montoya and Crichton. Hopoate has also been in the backs. Three of these players are reserve grade wingers (fullback is regards to Meaney). We're so weak in the centres we're forced to play two wingers there. I don't need to say anymore. That's one of the worst back lines in the NRL. Good players = Hopoate. Reimis on potential.
How about the forwards? Tolman, Napa, RFM, Jackson and Elliott (injured). Tolman and Napa are the worst front row pairing in the NRL. Elliott is the only forward on ability that would make another top eight teams roster. Thompson should be a massive boost but we're yet to see him play in the NRL and he's going to cancel out Elliott being injured. Good players = Elliott and Thompson(?).
Even with one of, if not, the worst rosters in the NRL. This year we've played well more games than not. Eels, Dragons, Sharks and Rabbitohs. If we just had a top hooker and centre alone we'd be at least 4/8 (7th-11th on the NRL ladder). Even tho we're 1/8 you can't question the teams effort. The players are playing for the coach and while we don't have a competitive roster that's the most important thing. No ones saying Pay's a super coach but he's done a terrific job overall with the roster and cards he's been dealt so unless a top coach is available he deserves at least one more year and a chance with a competitive roster.
